ncertainty, volatility, and resilience have been bywords at recent bi–annual IMF-World Bank meetings. This year’s theme, “building prosperity through resilience,” gives direction for the four thematic pillars of this spring’s agenda: the global growth outlook, multilateralism and international cooperation, the future of financial technology, and financing development in a higher–debt world. As global leaders convene for mainstage and side–room gatherings at this year’s IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings, the degree of uncertainty and volatility have been dialed up so high that it’s much more difficult than usual to imagine how we credibly build resilience. That makes the theme of this gathering feel rather optimistic, to put it mildly.
Context
Yet, regardless of the global geopolitical and economic situation of the day, these institutions exist to stabilize international financial systems and advance prosperity. Still, the fundamentals offer some reason for cautious optimism. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in a keynote speech on April 9 told us that the fundamentals of the global economy are strong, that minus the shocks associated with the war in the Middle East they would have been upgrading global economic outlooks. This gives an underlying sense of economic resilience, which is sorely needed given the Strait of Hormuz closure’s impact on trade of all kinds, the actual, physical prices for Brent crude at one point this month surpassing $140/barrel, and continued escalation of/uncertainty around tariffs. Against this backdrop, finding a pathway to prosperity—or even resilience to crises—will be a challenge. The IMF’s April publication of its bi–annual World Economic Outlook report is set to publish on April 14, where we can expect that an uptick in optimism at the start of the year will have been upended.
What’s on the agenda
Heading into the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group, here’s what to expect:
What now for international cooperation? The legitimacy crisis faced by our multilateral institutions has only become more intense. The role of Bretton Woods institutions in both peacebuilding and addressing the regional and global economic impacts of conflict are under intense scrutiny. (World Bank Group President Ajay Banga addressed this at the Atlantic Council on April 7.) Controversy over the war in Iran and closure of the Hormuz Strait will complicate the need for leaders to cooperate to mitigate economic repercussions.
Trade and energy shocks inch toward crisis. At the start of the year, the IMF updated its October World Economic Outlook upward, projecting growth of 3.3% for 2026 and for global inflation to fall. The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting trade and global supply chains on multiple levels, as an outsize impact on commodities (both energy and industry–facing) will have ripple effects on manufacturing broadly. There are energy shortages and price spikes globally. Energy markets’ recovery is expected to be slow, carrying into 2027 even if the ceasefire holds. Leaders are talking about what mechanisms they will need to use to cushion the blow of expected inflation and low growth due to tariffs. Mitigating these looming crises and facilitating recovery will be a core point of discussion.
Can we finance resilience in the Global South? Lower income countries (LICs) are facing a significant increase in the cost of debt. Dramatic falls in official development assistance (ODA) since early 2025 have brought ODA back to levels last seen before the adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Shifting policies in major economies, from changes in foreign aid to trade, are heightening uncertainty. All of these were issues facing the Global South before the war in Iran created yet another point of global economic pressure. With the war, addressing these pressures becomes ever more critical—but it also makes doing so more difficult.
Jobs, jobs, jobs. At the World Economic Forum in January, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga warned that employment is going to get more difficult, estimating that 1.2 billion people would be competing for around 400 million jobs. Banga has continued to sound that warning since, so it’s not surprising that employment and the future of work is at the center of the World Bank’s agenda for the meetings. IMF analysis illustrates how much AI is impacting a turbulent jobs market, projecting around 40% of jobs globally to be impacted by AI. Meanwhile, the International Labour Organization’s Employment and Social Trends 2026 report found that while unemployment remains largely steady, this hides underlying fragility and a degradation in the quality of work available.
What they’re saying
But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade. Why? Because of significant infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, losses of confidence, and other scarring effects. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva
Well, I think the week is certainly going to have some conversation on what the Bank and the IMF can do to help countries mitigate the impact of…the conflict in pricing and inflation. World Bank Group President Ajay Banga
Directionally, it is stagflation. It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy—tariff policy and immigration policy. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi
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At IMF–WB Spring Meetings, a search for pathways to prosperity
Image by Getty Images, via Unsplash +
April 10, 2026
Leaders are gathering for the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings as war, energy shocks, and tariff uncertainty converge. These disruptions make this year’s prosperity- and resilience-focused theme feel especially appropriate…but also especially difficult.
U
ncertainty, volatility, and resilience have been bywords at recent bi–annual IMF-World Bank meetings. This year’s theme, “building prosperity through resilience,” gives direction for the four thematic pillars of this spring’s agenda: the global growth outlook, multilateralism and international cooperation, the future of financial technology, and financing development in a higher–debt world. As global leaders convene for mainstage and side–room gatherings at this year’s IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings, the degree of uncertainty and volatility have been dialed up so high that it’s much more difficult than usual to imagine how we credibly build resilience. That makes the theme of this gathering feel rather optimistic, to put it mildly.
Context
Yet, regardless of the global geopolitical and economic situation of the day, these institutions exist to stabilize international financial systems and advance prosperity. Still, the fundamentals offer some reason for cautious optimism. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in a keynote speech on April 9 told us that the fundamentals of the global economy are strong, that minus the shocks associated with the war in the Middle East they would have been upgrading global economic outlooks. This gives an underlying sense of economic resilience, which is sorely needed given the Strait of Hormuz closure’s impact on trade of all kinds, the actual, physical prices for Brent crude at one point this month surpassing $140/barrel, and continued escalation of/uncertainty around tariffs. Against this backdrop, finding a pathway to prosperity—or even resilience to crises—will be a challenge. The IMF’s April publication of its bi–annual World Economic Outlook report is set to publish on April 14, where we can expect that an uptick in optimism at the start of the year will have been upended.
What’s on the agenda
Heading into the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group, here’s what to expect:
What now for international cooperation? The legitimacy crisis faced by our multilateral institutions has only become more intense. The role of Bretton Woods institutions in both peacebuilding and addressing the regional and global economic impacts of conflict are under intense scrutiny. (World Bank Group President Ajay Banga addressed this at the Atlantic Council on April 7.) Controversy over the war in Iran and closure of the Hormuz Strait will complicate the need for leaders to cooperate to mitigate economic repercussions.
Trade and energy shocks inch toward crisis. At the start of the year, the IMF updated its October World Economic Outlook upward, projecting growth of 3.3% for 2026 and for global inflation to fall. The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting trade and global supply chains on multiple levels, as an outsize impact on commodities (both energy and industry–facing) will have ripple effects on manufacturing broadly. There are energy shortages and price spikes globally. Energy markets’ recovery is expected to be slow, carrying into 2027 even if the ceasefire holds. Leaders are talking about what mechanisms they will need to use to cushion the blow of expected inflation and low growth due to tariffs. Mitigating these looming crises and facilitating recovery will be a core point of discussion.
Can we finance resilience in the Global South? Lower income countries (LICs) are facing a significant increase in the cost of debt. Dramatic falls in official development assistance (ODA) since early 2025 have brought ODA back to levels last seen before the adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Shifting policies in major economies, from changes in foreign aid to trade, are heightening uncertainty. All of these were issues facing the Global South before the war in Iran created yet another point of global economic pressure. With the war, addressing these pressures becomes ever more critical—but it also makes doing so more difficult.
Jobs, jobs, jobs. At the World Economic Forum in January, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga warned that employment is going to get more difficult, estimating that 1.2 billion people would be competing for around 400 million jobs. Banga has continued to sound that warning since, so it’s not surprising that employment and the future of work is at the center of the World Bank’s agenda for the meetings. IMF analysis illustrates how much AI is impacting a turbulent jobs market, projecting around 40% of jobs globally to be impacted by AI. Meanwhile, the International Labour Organization’s Employment and Social Trends 2026 report found that while unemployment remains largely steady, this hides underlying fragility and a degradation in the quality of work available.
What they’re saying
But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade. Why? Because of significant infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, losses of confidence, and other scarring effects. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva
Well, I think the week is certainly going to have some conversation on what the Bank and the IMF can do to help countries mitigate the impact of…the conflict in pricing and inflation. World Bank Group President Ajay Banga
Directionally, it is stagflation. It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy—tariff policy and immigration policy. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi
