.
The past few decades have seen an incredible rise in global immigration, with numbers of immigrants three times higher than those recorded in 1960. Currently, 3.3% of the world’s population is living in a different country than the one it was born in.
Although media attention has been focused heavily on refugee migration, refugees are only a small share of migrant numbers. Migration is increasingly driven by opportunity-seeking behaviors. In light of this mass migration movement, it’s unsurprising that global migration has created major demographic changes in the world. Pew Research set out to explore what these shifts in demographics and attitudes are, inviting Pew Research President Michael Dimock, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Homi Kharas, and Baylor University’s Professor Philip Jenkins to discuss their findings.
Migration and the middle class
Traditionally, Europe, North America, and Japan were the middle class. This trend held true until 1980, when emerging economies began to develop middle classes of their own. Nowadays, countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and the Philippines boast growing middle classes as well as some of the dynamic economies in the world.
Perhaps one of the most interesting observations stemming from this middle class growth is the massive cleavage that divides the middle class in developed countries versus that of the emerging economies. Although both enjoy the same lifestyle and opportunities, the middle class of developed countries is chronically stressed and lacks confidence in the future. In contrast, the middle class of emerging economies is increasingly optimistic, opportunistic, and enjoys an 8% growth per year.
African fertility and religion
One of the most incredible stories of growth has been in Africa. Professor Jenkins presents evidence that linked fertility to religious beliefs. High fertility rates are closely related to an increase in organized religion and a decrease in secularization, something that’s illustrated to the extreme in Africa. The massive disparity in fertility rates between Africa and the rest of the world means that 40% of the world‘s population could consist of highly religious individuals from Africa. Professor Jenkins’ hope is that this massive population can migrate to European countries in need of more workers.
Worldview of globalization
An ever-moving middle class has definite risks of increasing stress on societal infrastructures as well as the global climate, but not necessarily a boom in population. Aside from Africa, most members of the middle class are actually having fewer children. Increasing urbanization, more access to education (especially secondary education for girls), and higher incomes correlate with fewer children. Kharas emphasizes the need for governments to create conditions for smaller families and better healthcare. Jenkins echoes this, adding that in countries like Africa, policies needed to be implemented through the church rather than the obsolete state administration – “Either you work through religion, or you don’t work.”
Globalization’s biggest opponent is the middle class of developed countries. A commonly cited argument against migration and the ensuing benefits is ‘stolen jobs’ that grow the middle class of a foreign country at the expense of the native one. However, Kharas is quick to rebuff this argument, stating that “jobs are being taken away by robots, not foreigners.” The middle class in developed countries is losing its jobs to manufacturing industries, whereas the middle class in emerging economies is finding more work in agricultural industries.
Middle classes in countries that host large immigrant populations also express worries that their culture will be threatened by an influx of foreigners. Jenkins alleviates this fear, saying that although the first generation of immigrants bring their foreign culture with them and also have a large number of children, by the second and third generation, this foreign culture has mostly merged with the existing culture. This merging encompasses multiple areas, including fertility rates, religion, and divisions on social rights. As a whole, the experts agree that the problems middle class members face in developed countries are a result of factors exogenous to the middle class in emerging economies, and that the mass-migration of the middle class provides more benefits than detriments.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.
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Global Migration: Trends and Changes
July 19, 2016
The past few decades have seen an incredible rise in global immigration, with numbers of immigrants three times higher than those recorded in 1960. Currently, 3.3% of the world’s population is living in a different country than the one it was born in.
Although media attention has been focused heavily on refugee migration, refugees are only a small share of migrant numbers. Migration is increasingly driven by opportunity-seeking behaviors. In light of this mass migration movement, it’s unsurprising that global migration has created major demographic changes in the world. Pew Research set out to explore what these shifts in demographics and attitudes are, inviting Pew Research President Michael Dimock, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Homi Kharas, and Baylor University’s Professor Philip Jenkins to discuss their findings.
Migration and the middle class
Traditionally, Europe, North America, and Japan were the middle class. This trend held true until 1980, when emerging economies began to develop middle classes of their own. Nowadays, countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and the Philippines boast growing middle classes as well as some of the dynamic economies in the world.
Perhaps one of the most interesting observations stemming from this middle class growth is the massive cleavage that divides the middle class in developed countries versus that of the emerging economies. Although both enjoy the same lifestyle and opportunities, the middle class of developed countries is chronically stressed and lacks confidence in the future. In contrast, the middle class of emerging economies is increasingly optimistic, opportunistic, and enjoys an 8% growth per year.
African fertility and religion
One of the most incredible stories of growth has been in Africa. Professor Jenkins presents evidence that linked fertility to religious beliefs. High fertility rates are closely related to an increase in organized religion and a decrease in secularization, something that’s illustrated to the extreme in Africa. The massive disparity in fertility rates between Africa and the rest of the world means that 40% of the world‘s population could consist of highly religious individuals from Africa. Professor Jenkins’ hope is that this massive population can migrate to European countries in need of more workers.
Worldview of globalization
An ever-moving middle class has definite risks of increasing stress on societal infrastructures as well as the global climate, but not necessarily a boom in population. Aside from Africa, most members of the middle class are actually having fewer children. Increasing urbanization, more access to education (especially secondary education for girls), and higher incomes correlate with fewer children. Kharas emphasizes the need for governments to create conditions for smaller families and better healthcare. Jenkins echoes this, adding that in countries like Africa, policies needed to be implemented through the church rather than the obsolete state administration – “Either you work through religion, or you don’t work.”
Globalization’s biggest opponent is the middle class of developed countries. A commonly cited argument against migration and the ensuing benefits is ‘stolen jobs’ that grow the middle class of a foreign country at the expense of the native one. However, Kharas is quick to rebuff this argument, stating that “jobs are being taken away by robots, not foreigners.” The middle class in developed countries is losing its jobs to manufacturing industries, whereas the middle class in emerging economies is finding more work in agricultural industries.
Middle classes in countries that host large immigrant populations also express worries that their culture will be threatened by an influx of foreigners. Jenkins alleviates this fear, saying that although the first generation of immigrants bring their foreign culture with them and also have a large number of children, by the second and third generation, this foreign culture has mostly merged with the existing culture. This merging encompasses multiple areas, including fertility rates, religion, and divisions on social rights. As a whole, the experts agree that the problems middle class members face in developed countries are a result of factors exogenous to the middle class in emerging economies, and that the mass-migration of the middle class provides more benefits than detriments.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.
