n his new book “War Transformed”, Major General Mick Ryan of the Australian Army sets out to define how war is changing and – more importantly – how Western militaries need to prepare for these changes. It is an exceedingly timely book, and one that separates itself from its peers by focusing as much on what will not change as on what will. Instead of taking the well-trodden path of focusing on technology, Ryan's work focuses instead on the ideas, institutions, and people that make up militaries as the fundamental elements of transformation. It is this at times almost contrarian approach that makes “War Transformed” (a copy of which was provided by the U.S. Naval Institute Press) particularly insightful and worth reading.
Russia’s war on Ukraine brings the importance of the study of war into focus. At the time of this review’s drafting, the outcome of the war remains uncertain. Will Ukraine’s defenses hold, or will Kyiv succumb to the mass of Moscow’s onslaught? In war, nothing is certain except friction and death.
From TikTok-driven open-source intelligence to Twitter-led propaganda meme wars to drone-coordinated anti-tank assaults, the battlefields of Ukraine are playing host to new ways of conducting warfare. At the same time, the Russian military is finding that the challenges written so eloquently by Carl and Marie von Clausewitz still apply. In war, everything is simple, but the simplest thing is the hardest. That friction can and will accumulate and grind the best laid plans to a near halt. Perhaps most importantly, the enemy has a say and that will—that incalculable measure of the human spirit—matters more than one can imagine. How else can one explain the scenes of heroism by the Ukrainian armed forces in the face of seemingly overwhelming odds or the everyday citizen putting down the tools of daily life and picking up the arms of war to defend their homeland?
It is likely that war will never be fully understood. There will be endless theories about war and its conduct, but there will never be a grand unified theory—the efforts of Clausewitz and others notwithstanding. But as with the science of physics, its study is necessary and continuous, especially as unlikely physics the laws governing the science of war are ever changing.
To begin, “War Transformed” is a book that exclusively focuses on the profession of arms, and military transformation and adaptation. Ryan touches on related concepts such as national power, changing concepts of war and pace, and the need for joint-ness and integration. At its core, however, this is a book about the military itself.
This tight focus allows Ryan to explore critical topics, such as military education and professional development, that are often overlooked in discussions about the future of the armed forces. Too often books on the military are found occupying a strange middle ground—neither focused enough on that which makes the military unique, nor broad enough in scope to address the larger questions of national power with sufficient efficacy or depth. Ryan achieves that which he sets out to do—pen a book specifically about the armed forces.
One thing that makes this book especially unique is that Ryan focuses almost as much on that which doesn’t change. War will remain a part of the human condition. Nation-states will seek to use military power to advance their position and compel adversaries to accept their political will. Militaries will remain the tool by which the strategies of deterrence and coercion are applied. There will continue to be a professional class of soldiers who will execute the political will of the nation-state. These truths seem to be obvious, but it is interesting to realize how quickly discussions about military power wander away from these core tenets.
It is often the case that debates about war seem to suggest that nation-states will move beyond the need for hard power, seeking to compete elsewhere. There is a cottage industry of cyber experts predicting bloodless wars fought solely by machine proxies, or others who suggest that war could (or should) simply be privatized. One could be considered cynical for seeing profit-driven self-interest in the promotion of such narratives about war.
Too often transformation fixates on technology. So many discussions on military transformation focus solely on kit—the technology of warfare. Every technology is seemingly transformative or revolutionary. This new widget will fundamentally reshape the battlefield. Hypersonics will accelerate conflict and render deterrence moot. Zero-day cyber exploits will nullify traditional warfare. Loitering munitions and drones have turned tanks into antiques. Oh, and we mustn’t forget artificial intelligence (AI) which will leave humans without a role on the battlefield at all.
The future of war, Ryan argues, is largely unknowable. What matters more is not predicting the right path, but creating institutions that are flexible and agile enough to adapt to whatever changes come. This means empowering people to be innovative and training them to be flexible- ready to adopt good ideas from wherever they may come, even if from unconventional sources. It also means building institutions that incubate people and ideas into real substantive change.
Having such a strategic culture will ensure that no matter what the future may offer up, the profession of arms will be positioned to respond in a timely manner. Beyond merely responding, the institution will be better placed to forecast and transform to anticipated strategic challenges.
When Ryan finds his own voice, the book is exceedingly strong. Unfortunately, he too frequently relies on referencing other authors and studies. Ryan is an expert in his profession and should not be afraid to let that shine through. Moreover, while what Ryan outlines is eminently sensible and grounded, one wonders how practical it is to attempt to shift the leviathan that is the Department of Defense. Even shifting such a massive organization by a few degrees is no easy task. There are too many entrenched interests, too many layers of bureaucracy, and, until recently, arguably too little sense of urgency. Change-makers and their projects are often shunned, and careerism stands in the way of speaking truth to power. These issues and more all make real change difficult.
Here, the U.S. Marine Corps serves as an example of making that difficult pivot. For an organization so steeped in tradition and formality, it has proven surprisingly agile in its pivot to the Indo-Pacific and the threat from China. Jettisoning its heavy tanks and re-learning the lessons of amphibious expeditionary warfare, the Corps under Commandants David Berger and Robert Neller has been exceedingly forward-leaning. The challenge is getting that kind of culture into Big Army, Big Navy, and Big Air Force (the Space Force’s culture remains very uncertain at this early stage).
Ryan’s book is a timely addition to the study of the art and science of war, particularly as the U.S. military, but also its UK counterpart, pivot away from 20 years of low-intensity conflict in Southwest Asia to the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe. Whether or not the Department and Ministry of Defense, respectively, will heed his lessons and build a truly adaptable organization for the future is as unclear as how the war in Ukraine will end.
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Building Agility for the Future of War
Photo by Kevin Schmid via Unsplash.
March 5, 2022
In his latest book review for Diplomatic Courier, Joshua Huminski discusses Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan's new book, "War Transformed," which Huminski says is a refreshing take on the future of war. Rather than focus on technological shift, the book focuses on what will/won't change in the military itself.
I
n his new book “War Transformed”, Major General Mick Ryan of the Australian Army sets out to define how war is changing and – more importantly – how Western militaries need to prepare for these changes. It is an exceedingly timely book, and one that separates itself from its peers by focusing as much on what will not change as on what will. Instead of taking the well-trodden path of focusing on technology, Ryan's work focuses instead on the ideas, institutions, and people that make up militaries as the fundamental elements of transformation. It is this at times almost contrarian approach that makes “War Transformed” (a copy of which was provided by the U.S. Naval Institute Press) particularly insightful and worth reading.
Russia’s war on Ukraine brings the importance of the study of war into focus. At the time of this review’s drafting, the outcome of the war remains uncertain. Will Ukraine’s defenses hold, or will Kyiv succumb to the mass of Moscow’s onslaught? In war, nothing is certain except friction and death.
From TikTok-driven open-source intelligence to Twitter-led propaganda meme wars to drone-coordinated anti-tank assaults, the battlefields of Ukraine are playing host to new ways of conducting warfare. At the same time, the Russian military is finding that the challenges written so eloquently by Carl and Marie von Clausewitz still apply. In war, everything is simple, but the simplest thing is the hardest. That friction can and will accumulate and grind the best laid plans to a near halt. Perhaps most importantly, the enemy has a say and that will—that incalculable measure of the human spirit—matters more than one can imagine. How else can one explain the scenes of heroism by the Ukrainian armed forces in the face of seemingly overwhelming odds or the everyday citizen putting down the tools of daily life and picking up the arms of war to defend their homeland?
It is likely that war will never be fully understood. There will be endless theories about war and its conduct, but there will never be a grand unified theory—the efforts of Clausewitz and others notwithstanding. But as with the science of physics, its study is necessary and continuous, especially as unlikely physics the laws governing the science of war are ever changing.
To begin, “War Transformed” is a book that exclusively focuses on the profession of arms, and military transformation and adaptation. Ryan touches on related concepts such as national power, changing concepts of war and pace, and the need for joint-ness and integration. At its core, however, this is a book about the military itself.
This tight focus allows Ryan to explore critical topics, such as military education and professional development, that are often overlooked in discussions about the future of the armed forces. Too often books on the military are found occupying a strange middle ground—neither focused enough on that which makes the military unique, nor broad enough in scope to address the larger questions of national power with sufficient efficacy or depth. Ryan achieves that which he sets out to do—pen a book specifically about the armed forces.
One thing that makes this book especially unique is that Ryan focuses almost as much on that which doesn’t change. War will remain a part of the human condition. Nation-states will seek to use military power to advance their position and compel adversaries to accept their political will. Militaries will remain the tool by which the strategies of deterrence and coercion are applied. There will continue to be a professional class of soldiers who will execute the political will of the nation-state. These truths seem to be obvious, but it is interesting to realize how quickly discussions about military power wander away from these core tenets.
It is often the case that debates about war seem to suggest that nation-states will move beyond the need for hard power, seeking to compete elsewhere. There is a cottage industry of cyber experts predicting bloodless wars fought solely by machine proxies, or others who suggest that war could (or should) simply be privatized. One could be considered cynical for seeing profit-driven self-interest in the promotion of such narratives about war.
Too often transformation fixates on technology. So many discussions on military transformation focus solely on kit—the technology of warfare. Every technology is seemingly transformative or revolutionary. This new widget will fundamentally reshape the battlefield. Hypersonics will accelerate conflict and render deterrence moot. Zero-day cyber exploits will nullify traditional warfare. Loitering munitions and drones have turned tanks into antiques. Oh, and we mustn’t forget artificial intelligence (AI) which will leave humans without a role on the battlefield at all.
The future of war, Ryan argues, is largely unknowable. What matters more is not predicting the right path, but creating institutions that are flexible and agile enough to adapt to whatever changes come. This means empowering people to be innovative and training them to be flexible- ready to adopt good ideas from wherever they may come, even if from unconventional sources. It also means building institutions that incubate people and ideas into real substantive change.
Having such a strategic culture will ensure that no matter what the future may offer up, the profession of arms will be positioned to respond in a timely manner. Beyond merely responding, the institution will be better placed to forecast and transform to anticipated strategic challenges.
When Ryan finds his own voice, the book is exceedingly strong. Unfortunately, he too frequently relies on referencing other authors and studies. Ryan is an expert in his profession and should not be afraid to let that shine through. Moreover, while what Ryan outlines is eminently sensible and grounded, one wonders how practical it is to attempt to shift the leviathan that is the Department of Defense. Even shifting such a massive organization by a few degrees is no easy task. There are too many entrenched interests, too many layers of bureaucracy, and, until recently, arguably too little sense of urgency. Change-makers and their projects are often shunned, and careerism stands in the way of speaking truth to power. These issues and more all make real change difficult.
Here, the U.S. Marine Corps serves as an example of making that difficult pivot. For an organization so steeped in tradition and formality, it has proven surprisingly agile in its pivot to the Indo-Pacific and the threat from China. Jettisoning its heavy tanks and re-learning the lessons of amphibious expeditionary warfare, the Corps under Commandants David Berger and Robert Neller has been exceedingly forward-leaning. The challenge is getting that kind of culture into Big Army, Big Navy, and Big Air Force (the Space Force’s culture remains very uncertain at this early stage).
Ryan’s book is a timely addition to the study of the art and science of war, particularly as the U.S. military, but also its UK counterpart, pivot away from 20 years of low-intensity conflict in Southwest Asia to the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe. Whether or not the Department and Ministry of Defense, respectively, will heed his lessons and build a truly adaptable organization for the future is as unclear as how the war in Ukraine will end.
