ar anniversaries are painful observations, and the sentiments as we observe the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine feel more glum than at this time last year. Yet the outcome remains far from clear. In thinking about where the war will go, it can be beneficial to think back on what we’ve learned over the war’s second year.
Drones, drones, drones
Drones played a big role in the war’s second year and that trend looks likely to increase. In early February, Ukraine announced a new military branch for drone warfare. During 2023, Ukraine reportedly produced around 300,000 drones, and in 2024 aims to bolster production and shift focus toward longer–ranged UAVs.
Meanwhile, a growing group of NATO allies led by Latvia and the UK has promised to deliver one million drones to Ukraine in 2024, while the U.S. is leading an effort to supply Ukraine with AI–enabled drones—an innovation which has so far eluded both Russia and Ukraine.
By the numbers
- 14,270: How many pieces of Russian land warfare equipment destroyed by Ukrainian drones, as of February 2024, according to Ukrainian officials.
- 90: The number of Shahed drones launched by Russia in a New Year attack on Ukraine–the largest single drone strike force ever launched.
- 641: The number of Ukrainian civilian casualties caused by drone and missile strikes, combined, in January 2024. This is a 37% increase over November, 2023.
The human cost
Editor's Note: On 25 February Ukrainian president Zelenskyy said that 31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since the start of the invasion two year ago.
The human cost of the war in Ukraine is difficult to calculate. Figures released by the Ukrainian government, humanitarian organizations, and Western intelligence agencies differ significantly on Ukrainian and Russian casualties, while the Russian government isn’t sharing many details.
One–third of Ukrainians have been displaced. Education has been disrupted by the destruction of thousands of education facilities. On the other hand, human trafficking has been a significant challenge following the invasion, but it never grew to the scale of crisis many feared. There’s also a lot that we don’t know, as humanitarian organizations cannot operate in Russian–occupied areas.
By the numbers
- 10,000 & 18,500: The number of Ukrainian civilians who have been killed (10,000) or injured (18,500) as of November 2023, according to the UN.
- 500,000: Approximate combined military casualties as of August 2023. At the time, Russian casualties were estimated at 300,000 while Ukrainian casualties were estimated at 170,000–190,000.
- 5.3 million: The number of children in Ukraine facing barriers preventing access to education due to the war—3.6 million children have been directly impacted by school closures.
- 10 million: The combined number of Ukrainians who have been internally displaced within the country or are refugees who have relocated externally.
The monetary cost
The monetary cost of the war is staggering. Poverty in Ukraine soared in 2022, from 5.5% to 24.2%, with around 7.1 million in poverty today.
The cost of the war for the rest of the world has been considerable as well. World wheat prices are up by about 2% as of February 2024, a considerable amount but far better than the 27% price spikes during the war’s opening weeks. Global energy security has been less resilient, while Russia’s total fossil fuel export revenues fell more than 50% since the start of the war.
By the numbers
- 17%: Ukraine’s unemployment picture continues to be bleak as the economy struggles with the number of Ukrainians now living elsewhere, but there are encouraging signs as the number of available jobs has risen.
- $322 billion: Total financial capital destruction in Russia during 2022. Direct costs of the war for Russia are expected to reach around $132 billion through 2024.
- $486 billion: The projected cost of reconstruction and recovery efforts in Ukraine over the next decade, according to recent estimates from the EU, UN, and World Bank.
Aid to Ukraine
More than three dozen nations have contributed support to Ukraine since the start of the 2022 invasion. The EU has propped up Ukraine’s finances, while the U.S. has been its primary source of military aid. Notably, Russia–adjacent Estonia has contributed a whopping 3.6% of its GDP in bilateral aid. While the EU’s support has long overtaken U.S. support in total, there is a gap between EU commitments and allocations, which could directly impact the battlefield. To replace stalled U.S. military aid, the EU would have to double its current contribution of military support.
By the numbers
- $278.1 billion: Total aid committed to Ukraine from over 40 countries, led by the EU ($85 billion), the U.S. ($67.7 billion), Germany ($22.1 billion), the UK, ($15.7 billion) and Denmark ($8.76 billion).
- $118 billion: Total military aid committed to Ukraine. The U.S. is the biggest contributor with $46.3 billion, raising questions about what happens if U.S. aid remains stalled.
- $141.1 billion: Total financial aid committed to Ukraine, led by the EU with $84.7 billion.
$19 billion: Total humanitarian aid committed to Ukraine, led by Germany, the U.S. ($2.7 billion), Switzerland ($2.5 billion), the EU ($2.4 billion), and Japan ($2.1 billion).
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What we learned in the Ukraine war's second year
February 24, 2024
While it hasn't featured as heavily in headlines this year, a lot happened during the Ukraine war's second year. There's a lot to reflect on, from the rise of drones to the various ways the war's costs are rising, write Jeremy Fugleberg and Shane Szarkowski.
W
ar anniversaries are painful observations, and the sentiments as we observe the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine feel more glum than at this time last year. Yet the outcome remains far from clear. In thinking about where the war will go, it can be beneficial to think back on what we’ve learned over the war’s second year.
Drones, drones, drones
Drones played a big role in the war’s second year and that trend looks likely to increase. In early February, Ukraine announced a new military branch for drone warfare. During 2023, Ukraine reportedly produced around 300,000 drones, and in 2024 aims to bolster production and shift focus toward longer–ranged UAVs.
Meanwhile, a growing group of NATO allies led by Latvia and the UK has promised to deliver one million drones to Ukraine in 2024, while the U.S. is leading an effort to supply Ukraine with AI–enabled drones—an innovation which has so far eluded both Russia and Ukraine.
By the numbers
- 14,270: How many pieces of Russian land warfare equipment destroyed by Ukrainian drones, as of February 2024, according to Ukrainian officials.
- 90: The number of Shahed drones launched by Russia in a New Year attack on Ukraine–the largest single drone strike force ever launched.
- 641: The number of Ukrainian civilian casualties caused by drone and missile strikes, combined, in January 2024. This is a 37% increase over November, 2023.
The human cost
Editor's Note: On 25 February Ukrainian president Zelenskyy said that 31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since the start of the invasion two year ago.
The human cost of the war in Ukraine is difficult to calculate. Figures released by the Ukrainian government, humanitarian organizations, and Western intelligence agencies differ significantly on Ukrainian and Russian casualties, while the Russian government isn’t sharing many details.
One–third of Ukrainians have been displaced. Education has been disrupted by the destruction of thousands of education facilities. On the other hand, human trafficking has been a significant challenge following the invasion, but it never grew to the scale of crisis many feared. There’s also a lot that we don’t know, as humanitarian organizations cannot operate in Russian–occupied areas.
By the numbers
- 10,000 & 18,500: The number of Ukrainian civilians who have been killed (10,000) or injured (18,500) as of November 2023, according to the UN.
- 500,000: Approximate combined military casualties as of August 2023. At the time, Russian casualties were estimated at 300,000 while Ukrainian casualties were estimated at 170,000–190,000.
- 5.3 million: The number of children in Ukraine facing barriers preventing access to education due to the war—3.6 million children have been directly impacted by school closures.
- 10 million: The combined number of Ukrainians who have been internally displaced within the country or are refugees who have relocated externally.
The monetary cost
The monetary cost of the war is staggering. Poverty in Ukraine soared in 2022, from 5.5% to 24.2%, with around 7.1 million in poverty today.
The cost of the war for the rest of the world has been considerable as well. World wheat prices are up by about 2% as of February 2024, a considerable amount but far better than the 27% price spikes during the war’s opening weeks. Global energy security has been less resilient, while Russia’s total fossil fuel export revenues fell more than 50% since the start of the war.
By the numbers
- 17%: Ukraine’s unemployment picture continues to be bleak as the economy struggles with the number of Ukrainians now living elsewhere, but there are encouraging signs as the number of available jobs has risen.
- $322 billion: Total financial capital destruction in Russia during 2022. Direct costs of the war for Russia are expected to reach around $132 billion through 2024.
- $486 billion: The projected cost of reconstruction and recovery efforts in Ukraine over the next decade, according to recent estimates from the EU, UN, and World Bank.
Aid to Ukraine
More than three dozen nations have contributed support to Ukraine since the start of the 2022 invasion. The EU has propped up Ukraine’s finances, while the U.S. has been its primary source of military aid. Notably, Russia–adjacent Estonia has contributed a whopping 3.6% of its GDP in bilateral aid. While the EU’s support has long overtaken U.S. support in total, there is a gap between EU commitments and allocations, which could directly impact the battlefield. To replace stalled U.S. military aid, the EU would have to double its current contribution of military support.
By the numbers
- $278.1 billion: Total aid committed to Ukraine from over 40 countries, led by the EU ($85 billion), the U.S. ($67.7 billion), Germany ($22.1 billion), the UK, ($15.7 billion) and Denmark ($8.76 billion).
- $118 billion: Total military aid committed to Ukraine. The U.S. is the biggest contributor with $46.3 billion, raising questions about what happens if U.S. aid remains stalled.
- $141.1 billion: Total financial aid committed to Ukraine, led by the EU with $84.7 billion.
$19 billion: Total humanitarian aid committed to Ukraine, led by Germany, the U.S. ($2.7 billion), Switzerland ($2.5 billion), the EU ($2.4 billion), and Japan ($2.1 billion).
