ince mid-April 2023, Sudan has plunged into a deep political-military crisis. The regular army, headed by Sudanese President Fattah al-Burhan, collided with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a parallel army commanded by Vice President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The clashes quickly escalated into a civil war, with bombings, airstrikes, and artillery strikes that have killed more than 400 people.
Al-Burhan and Dagalo have been members of Sudan's ruling council—a body with a combination of civilian and military officials—since 2019. They both deposed Sudan's authoritarian President Omar al-Bashir. Since then, al-Burhan has emerged as the country's de facto leader, ousting the semi-civilian government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdo in 2021.
In the weeks before the crisis erupted, relates between al-Burhan and Dagalo deteriorated due to the ability to agree on some critical issues, especially regarding how the RSF should be integrated into the regular army. Both sides blamed the other to have caused the war.
Many regional and global actors, such as Germany, France, Italy, the United States, Egypt, and the Gulf states, reacted by closing embassies and evacuating their nationals. Meanwhile, waves of violence soon spread from the capital Khartoum to other cities in Sudan. In Kabkabiya, for example, three World Food Programme (WFP) employees have been killed.
The United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) has already reported thousands of internally or externally displaced persons. UNHCR spokeswoman Olga Sarrado stated, "The fighting looks set to trigger further displacement both within and outside the country." The two main destinations are South Sudan and Chad, with the latter already hosting more than 400,000 Sudanese people.
According to some international organizations, such as the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the civil war happened in an already precarious situation in which "nearly 16 million people needed humanitarian assistance to meet basic human needs before this outbreak of violence." As of late April 2023, 5 million Sudanese people out of 50 million are displaced. This data may increase even further in the coming weeks and months.
Sudan is located in an unstable area bordering the Sahel region, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea. Its neighborhoods, such as Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, are experiencing humanitarian crises. For this reason, experts and analysts are seriously concerned about spillover effects over them.
Sudan is currently involved in a dispute with Ethiopia and Egypt for the construction of a dam on the Nile River. The governments in Khartoum and Cairo fear that this new mega-infrastructure project will drastically decrease their water access. A civil war could make the negotiations even more complex since a precise interlocutor would be missing, as occurred in Libya when two rival governments claimed authority over the country.
The main foreign actors involved in the area are China, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The "Quad for Sudan," which includes the US, the UK, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, tried to mediate between the sides after the outbreak of hostilities. In a telephone conversation, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reminded al-Burhan of his commitment to bringing democratic government back to the country.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have supported Sudan's transition after 2019 to hinder Islamism's spread in the Horn of Africa. In addition, some UAE companies are involved in the construction of ports in Sudan, which makes this country a strong advocate for Sudanese political stability.
Western powers, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom, have tried to block Russian rising influence in the country. Russia and Sudan are discussing a geopolitical deal allowing Moscow to build a base on the Red Sea. The Russian-backed Wagner Group has also established activities in the country's gold market.
Considering what occurred in Libya, many experts fear that Sudan could plunge into a proxy war. On one side, regional powers, such as Egypt and the UAE, and Russia support the military regime to secure the agreements reached and prevent Islamism in the Horn of Africa. Conversely, the United States and the West will promote peace dialogues toward restoring a civilian government. The African Union held an urgent meeting on April 2023 to discuss this issue and then released a statement warning against any foreign interference, which is very likely to happen if the conflict is not resolved in the short term.
It is hard to predict how the crisis will evolve at this stage. The international community, particularly the United Nations, will surely play a central role in mediating between the sides and preventing a larger-scale escalation. However, the UN's recent efforts on the Yemeni or Libyan dossiers were weak and tribal conflicts, lack of effective governance, and foreign influences still afflict these countries.
If the outbreak of a proxy war will be prevented, Sudan's international allies must push for an immediate truce and access to humanitarian aid, followed by political talks to cease hostilities permanently. If this situation is reached, the next step will be resuming political discussions to re-establish a civilian government in the long term.
Ahmed Soliman and Yusuf Hassan have suggested the international community has two essential tools to influence the Sudan warlords. On one side, there is the economic influence exerted by the United Arab Emirates and China, who are prominent investors and leading trading partners. On the other side, there are some punitive measures, such as economic sanctions against the Sudanese official army, the RSF, and their leaders.
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The Sudan Crisis and the Risk of a Proxy War
View of Khartom, Sundan, from the Nile River. Photo by Mohammed Mojahed on Unsplash.
May 1, 2023
The crisis in Sudan is already tragic, but a possible proxy war between the West and Russia in the country would make things far worse. To avoid a proxy war, the international community should proactively ensure access to humanitarian aid and push for a political solution, writes Elia Preto Martini.
S
ince mid-April 2023, Sudan has plunged into a deep political-military crisis. The regular army, headed by Sudanese President Fattah al-Burhan, collided with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a parallel army commanded by Vice President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The clashes quickly escalated into a civil war, with bombings, airstrikes, and artillery strikes that have killed more than 400 people.
Al-Burhan and Dagalo have been members of Sudan's ruling council—a body with a combination of civilian and military officials—since 2019. They both deposed Sudan's authoritarian President Omar al-Bashir. Since then, al-Burhan has emerged as the country's de facto leader, ousting the semi-civilian government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdo in 2021.
In the weeks before the crisis erupted, relates between al-Burhan and Dagalo deteriorated due to the ability to agree on some critical issues, especially regarding how the RSF should be integrated into the regular army. Both sides blamed the other to have caused the war.
Many regional and global actors, such as Germany, France, Italy, the United States, Egypt, and the Gulf states, reacted by closing embassies and evacuating their nationals. Meanwhile, waves of violence soon spread from the capital Khartoum to other cities in Sudan. In Kabkabiya, for example, three World Food Programme (WFP) employees have been killed.
The United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) has already reported thousands of internally or externally displaced persons. UNHCR spokeswoman Olga Sarrado stated, "The fighting looks set to trigger further displacement both within and outside the country." The two main destinations are South Sudan and Chad, with the latter already hosting more than 400,000 Sudanese people.
According to some international organizations, such as the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the civil war happened in an already precarious situation in which "nearly 16 million people needed humanitarian assistance to meet basic human needs before this outbreak of violence." As of late April 2023, 5 million Sudanese people out of 50 million are displaced. This data may increase even further in the coming weeks and months.
Sudan is located in an unstable area bordering the Sahel region, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea. Its neighborhoods, such as Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, are experiencing humanitarian crises. For this reason, experts and analysts are seriously concerned about spillover effects over them.
Sudan is currently involved in a dispute with Ethiopia and Egypt for the construction of a dam on the Nile River. The governments in Khartoum and Cairo fear that this new mega-infrastructure project will drastically decrease their water access. A civil war could make the negotiations even more complex since a precise interlocutor would be missing, as occurred in Libya when two rival governments claimed authority over the country.
The main foreign actors involved in the area are China, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The "Quad for Sudan," which includes the US, the UK, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, tried to mediate between the sides after the outbreak of hostilities. In a telephone conversation, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reminded al-Burhan of his commitment to bringing democratic government back to the country.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have supported Sudan's transition after 2019 to hinder Islamism's spread in the Horn of Africa. In addition, some UAE companies are involved in the construction of ports in Sudan, which makes this country a strong advocate for Sudanese political stability.
Western powers, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom, have tried to block Russian rising influence in the country. Russia and Sudan are discussing a geopolitical deal allowing Moscow to build a base on the Red Sea. The Russian-backed Wagner Group has also established activities in the country's gold market.
Considering what occurred in Libya, many experts fear that Sudan could plunge into a proxy war. On one side, regional powers, such as Egypt and the UAE, and Russia support the military regime to secure the agreements reached and prevent Islamism in the Horn of Africa. Conversely, the United States and the West will promote peace dialogues toward restoring a civilian government. The African Union held an urgent meeting on April 2023 to discuss this issue and then released a statement warning against any foreign interference, which is very likely to happen if the conflict is not resolved in the short term.
It is hard to predict how the crisis will evolve at this stage. The international community, particularly the United Nations, will surely play a central role in mediating between the sides and preventing a larger-scale escalation. However, the UN's recent efforts on the Yemeni or Libyan dossiers were weak and tribal conflicts, lack of effective governance, and foreign influences still afflict these countries.
If the outbreak of a proxy war will be prevented, Sudan's international allies must push for an immediate truce and access to humanitarian aid, followed by political talks to cease hostilities permanently. If this situation is reached, the next step will be resuming political discussions to re-establish a civilian government in the long term.
Ahmed Soliman and Yusuf Hassan have suggested the international community has two essential tools to influence the Sudan warlords. On one side, there is the economic influence exerted by the United Arab Emirates and China, who are prominent investors and leading trading partners. On the other side, there are some punitive measures, such as economic sanctions against the Sudanese official army, the RSF, and their leaders.
