This year’s gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos has naturally been pre-occupied with the state of the global economy, not to mention the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. But whenever diplomats and government leaders get together, informal discussions take place about what might be called the housekeeping agenda of the international community. One of the most interesting this year concerns the selection of a replacement for Ban Ki-moon when he steps down as UN Secretary-General next year. Plenty of names are already being touted.
The process of finding the right candidate is a good deal more difficult than you might think, involving a complex mix of political and cultural factors. The ideal Secretary-General must have the skill and authority to coax the most powerful world leaders towards a consensus, but not the kind of stature that might threaten their prerogatives or create competition for the limelight. Geographical balance is important. There are five designated UN regions and the top post is supposed to respect the principle of rotation according to a decision of the General Assembly. Eastern Europe is the only region never to have had a Secretary General appointed from its ranks and feels strongly that its moment has arrived. At the same time, all of the eight Secretaries-General since the UN was founded have been men and there are growing demands for Ban Ki-moon to be succeeded by a woman.
Probably the most difficult requirement to meet is that a successful candidate must be acceptable to all of the five permanent members of the Security Council, each of which wields a veto over the appointment. Very few politicians rise far in world affairs without taking positions that bring them into conflict with one or more of the P5. With the Security Council more divided than at any time since the Cold War, Russia and the United States in particular will be acutely sensitive to any hint of bias against them or in favor of the other. China plays its cards closer to its chest, but also has national interests it is determined to defend. A vital qualification as far as France is concerned, and possibly not for benign reasons given the rising prominence of the Francophony Organization, is that the Secretary-General must be able to speak French.
There are not many people who satisfy most, let alone all, of these qualifications. One candidate who does—and was discussed very seriously on the margins of Davos—is Irina Bokova, former foreign minister of Bulgaria, now in her second term as the Director-General of UNESCO. As a woman from Eastern Europe, Bokova has a head start and has already been endorsed by her government. She is known to have a consensual style of leadership suited to the post and has gained a reputation of good manager at the UNESCO. Heavyweight experience within the UN system stands her in good stead, as does the fact that she was educated in both Russia and the United States. Her relations with China are said to be good and to cap it all she speaks French fluently.
All of Bokova’s rivals for the job in the region face serious obstacles. There are plenty of Eastern Europeans being named as possible candidates, but most of them are men. One of the few who isn’t—Dalia Grybauskaitė—is President of Lithuania and would be certain to draw a Russian veto. Likewise, the former foreign minister of Serbia, Vuk Jeremic, would probably be vetoed by the United States over his hardline stance on Kosovo. The former Romanian foreign minister, Mircea Geoană, has many of the right qualities and speaks French, but again is a man and most importantly, the current Romanian government will not nominate him.
It is always possible that the Security Council might decide to set aside the principle of rotation and open the selection process to candidates from other regions. If so, the person most often mentioned is Helen Clark, the former Prime Minister of New Zealand currently running the UN Development Programme. Paradoxically, her status might actually count against her. The post of Secretary-General has never been filled by a former president or prime minister, and that is no coincidence. The world leaders who get to make the decision want someone who will act at the service of the international community, not as a rival for power and prestige. That is why half of the former Secretaries-General have been ex-foreign ministers.
Other strong female contenders exist, but all of them currently come from Latin America. With Pérez de Cuéllar having stood down in 1991, it is thought to be too early for another candidate from that region to occupy the post. At the moment, Irina Bokova is increasingly seen as the front-runner. But many things can happen between now and July 2016 when the UN is expected to make its decision.
About the author: Joel Ruet is President of the BridgeTank.
UN Photo by Ky Chung.
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The Race Is On For the Next United Nations Secretary-General
February 16, 2015
This year’s gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos has naturally been pre-occupied with the state of the global economy, not to mention the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. But whenever diplomats and government leaders get together, informal discussions take place about what might be called the housekeeping agenda of the international community. One of the most interesting this year concerns the selection of a replacement for Ban Ki-moon when he steps down as UN Secretary-General next year. Plenty of names are already being touted.
The process of finding the right candidate is a good deal more difficult than you might think, involving a complex mix of political and cultural factors. The ideal Secretary-General must have the skill and authority to coax the most powerful world leaders towards a consensus, but not the kind of stature that might threaten their prerogatives or create competition for the limelight. Geographical balance is important. There are five designated UN regions and the top post is supposed to respect the principle of rotation according to a decision of the General Assembly. Eastern Europe is the only region never to have had a Secretary General appointed from its ranks and feels strongly that its moment has arrived. At the same time, all of the eight Secretaries-General since the UN was founded have been men and there are growing demands for Ban Ki-moon to be succeeded by a woman.
Probably the most difficult requirement to meet is that a successful candidate must be acceptable to all of the five permanent members of the Security Council, each of which wields a veto over the appointment. Very few politicians rise far in world affairs without taking positions that bring them into conflict with one or more of the P5. With the Security Council more divided than at any time since the Cold War, Russia and the United States in particular will be acutely sensitive to any hint of bias against them or in favor of the other. China plays its cards closer to its chest, but also has national interests it is determined to defend. A vital qualification as far as France is concerned, and possibly not for benign reasons given the rising prominence of the Francophony Organization, is that the Secretary-General must be able to speak French.
There are not many people who satisfy most, let alone all, of these qualifications. One candidate who does—and was discussed very seriously on the margins of Davos—is Irina Bokova, former foreign minister of Bulgaria, now in her second term as the Director-General of UNESCO. As a woman from Eastern Europe, Bokova has a head start and has already been endorsed by her government. She is known to have a consensual style of leadership suited to the post and has gained a reputation of good manager at the UNESCO. Heavyweight experience within the UN system stands her in good stead, as does the fact that she was educated in both Russia and the United States. Her relations with China are said to be good and to cap it all she speaks French fluently.
All of Bokova’s rivals for the job in the region face serious obstacles. There are plenty of Eastern Europeans being named as possible candidates, but most of them are men. One of the few who isn’t—Dalia Grybauskaitė—is President of Lithuania and would be certain to draw a Russian veto. Likewise, the former foreign minister of Serbia, Vuk Jeremic, would probably be vetoed by the United States over his hardline stance on Kosovo. The former Romanian foreign minister, Mircea Geoană, has many of the right qualities and speaks French, but again is a man and most importantly, the current Romanian government will not nominate him.
It is always possible that the Security Council might decide to set aside the principle of rotation and open the selection process to candidates from other regions. If so, the person most often mentioned is Helen Clark, the former Prime Minister of New Zealand currently running the UN Development Programme. Paradoxically, her status might actually count against her. The post of Secretary-General has never been filled by a former president or prime minister, and that is no coincidence. The world leaders who get to make the decision want someone who will act at the service of the international community, not as a rival for power and prestige. That is why half of the former Secretaries-General have been ex-foreign ministers.
Other strong female contenders exist, but all of them currently come from Latin America. With Pérez de Cuéllar having stood down in 1991, it is thought to be too early for another candidate from that region to occupy the post. At the moment, Irina Bokova is increasingly seen as the front-runner. But many things can happen between now and July 2016 when the UN is expected to make its decision.
About the author: Joel Ruet is President of the BridgeTank.
UN Photo by Ky Chung.
