Although it began as an angry protest as part of the Arab Spring, the Syrian civil war has since intensified to the destruction of the entire country. Recent estimates put the death count over 100,000, as entire communities are wiped off the map, and refugees in the millions are seeking shelter in nearby countries. As the war intensifies it has an increasing effect on neighboring countries.
On July 16th the Middle East Policy Council hosted a forum discussing what the stakes are for Syria’s neighbors. Moderated by Thomas R. Mattair, Executive Director of the Middle East Policy Council, panelists discussed each of Syria’s neighbors and the effect the war has had on them.
Israel
Outlined by Steven Simon, Executive Director for International Institute for Strategic Studies, the implications of the civil war on Israel are complicated. Israel is the black sheep of the Middle East, and has been in a state of unending war since its creation. Simon explained that “the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t” is a possible way to examine the war—an end to the Syrian violence will not end tensions between the two counties, and whether Assad stays or goes, it could pose a threat to Israel.
What happens during the civil war is more important to Israel than the outcome. Simon explained, “This civil war in Syria represents an opportunity, but the dangers at the same time are rife.” The possibility that Iran will be cut off from Lebanon is an exciting idea to Israeli security forces and a potential opportunity for the region. But a threat of war also comes from Iran. Simon explained, “from an Israeli perspective, the prospect of the United States getting wrapped up in Syria would lessen the probability that the United States would have the energy and focus to deal with Iran and the nuclear issue when, from an Israeli perspective, the time would come.”
Lebanon
Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser on the Middle East at the Stimson Center, explained, “I think the first point to bear in mind is that Lebanon's fate has been very intimately intertwined with that of Syria, always. And so one has to consider that the long-standing ties—social, economic—between these two countries in many ways makes Lebanon a special case.” Lebanon’s future will be in question for as long as the Syrian civil war remains unresolved. It is as difficult to say what the outcome will be in Lebanon as it is in Syria.
The current effects nevertheless, are blatantly visible. Refugees are flooding over the border; Yacoubian estimated the number of refugees to be well over a million, and adequate housing is not being built for them. Yacoubian explained, “The conditions for Syrian refugees in Lebanon are pretty dire—over a million refugees in a country of four million.” Lebanon is feeling the strains of war within its border.
Iraq
In Iraq, Yacoubian explained the problems of sectarian spillover. Iraq has gone through fairly brutal sectarian wars in the past decades, and the spillover from Syria plays into preexisting dynamics. “I think we have to try and understand how, on one level, the spillover is simply stirring up preexisting tensions. With respect to the Sunni community in Iraq, you’re seeing greater radicalization. You’re seeing jihadist groups—namely al-Qaida—getting new energy off of what’s happening in Syria,” Yacoubian explained. “By and large I think you’re seeing that the spillover has been sectarian in nature, the stakes are existential, and it has been the cause of fairly significant instability. I don’t see that really changing anytime soon.”
Turkey
“Under current circumstances, we are far away from solving this conflict with a reduced cost. And the nightmare scenario for almost all the neighbors of Syria, and for Turkey [in particular] is a prolonged sectarian civil war in Syria,” explained Erol A Cebeci, Executive Director for The Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research. “Unfortunately, there is every indication that this will be the case, and all of the neighbors of Syria will be affected by the spillover effects.”
“Turkey has a direct interest in stopping the refugee flow and preventing the humanitarian crisis,” Cebeci explained. “A month and a half ago, there was the largest terrorist attack in Turkish soil in recent history. A bomb went on in a border town populated with a lot of refugees from Syria; more than 50 people were killed, and 98 percent of them are of Turkish origin.”
“Turkey's interest lies in a stable, democratic Syria. Turkey does not have any accounts to settle with the neighboring countries over the death of Syrians,” Cebici concluded.
Globally
What about those who are not Syria’s neighbors? The outcome in Syria will have consequences globally. Future foreign policy and international relations will depend on how governments react to Syria’s civil war. Cebeci summarized the issue when he stated, “Most of us on the panel agree that the conflict in Syria will only get worse in the foreseeable future, and the lack of consensus and inaction among the international community over the past two years has prevented any meaningful, decisive action in Syria.”
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The Crisis in Syria: What are the Stakes for its Neighbors?
August 19, 2013
Although it began as an angry protest as part of the Arab Spring, the Syrian civil war has since intensified to the destruction of the entire country. Recent estimates put the death count over 100,000, as entire communities are wiped off the map, and refugees in the millions are seeking shelter in nearby countries. As the war intensifies it has an increasing effect on neighboring countries.
On July 16th the Middle East Policy Council hosted a forum discussing what the stakes are for Syria’s neighbors. Moderated by Thomas R. Mattair, Executive Director of the Middle East Policy Council, panelists discussed each of Syria’s neighbors and the effect the war has had on them.
Israel
Outlined by Steven Simon, Executive Director for International Institute for Strategic Studies, the implications of the civil war on Israel are complicated. Israel is the black sheep of the Middle East, and has been in a state of unending war since its creation. Simon explained that “the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t” is a possible way to examine the war—an end to the Syrian violence will not end tensions between the two counties, and whether Assad stays or goes, it could pose a threat to Israel.
What happens during the civil war is more important to Israel than the outcome. Simon explained, “This civil war in Syria represents an opportunity, but the dangers at the same time are rife.” The possibility that Iran will be cut off from Lebanon is an exciting idea to Israeli security forces and a potential opportunity for the region. But a threat of war also comes from Iran. Simon explained, “from an Israeli perspective, the prospect of the United States getting wrapped up in Syria would lessen the probability that the United States would have the energy and focus to deal with Iran and the nuclear issue when, from an Israeli perspective, the time would come.”
Lebanon
Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser on the Middle East at the Stimson Center, explained, “I think the first point to bear in mind is that Lebanon's fate has been very intimately intertwined with that of Syria, always. And so one has to consider that the long-standing ties—social, economic—between these two countries in many ways makes Lebanon a special case.” Lebanon’s future will be in question for as long as the Syrian civil war remains unresolved. It is as difficult to say what the outcome will be in Lebanon as it is in Syria.
The current effects nevertheless, are blatantly visible. Refugees are flooding over the border; Yacoubian estimated the number of refugees to be well over a million, and adequate housing is not being built for them. Yacoubian explained, “The conditions for Syrian refugees in Lebanon are pretty dire—over a million refugees in a country of four million.” Lebanon is feeling the strains of war within its border.
Iraq
In Iraq, Yacoubian explained the problems of sectarian spillover. Iraq has gone through fairly brutal sectarian wars in the past decades, and the spillover from Syria plays into preexisting dynamics. “I think we have to try and understand how, on one level, the spillover is simply stirring up preexisting tensions. With respect to the Sunni community in Iraq, you’re seeing greater radicalization. You’re seeing jihadist groups—namely al-Qaida—getting new energy off of what’s happening in Syria,” Yacoubian explained. “By and large I think you’re seeing that the spillover has been sectarian in nature, the stakes are existential, and it has been the cause of fairly significant instability. I don’t see that really changing anytime soon.”
Turkey
“Under current circumstances, we are far away from solving this conflict with a reduced cost. And the nightmare scenario for almost all the neighbors of Syria, and for Turkey [in particular] is a prolonged sectarian civil war in Syria,” explained Erol A Cebeci, Executive Director for The Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research. “Unfortunately, there is every indication that this will be the case, and all of the neighbors of Syria will be affected by the spillover effects.”
“Turkey has a direct interest in stopping the refugee flow and preventing the humanitarian crisis,” Cebeci explained. “A month and a half ago, there was the largest terrorist attack in Turkish soil in recent history. A bomb went on in a border town populated with a lot of refugees from Syria; more than 50 people were killed, and 98 percent of them are of Turkish origin.”
“Turkey's interest lies in a stable, democratic Syria. Turkey does not have any accounts to settle with the neighboring countries over the death of Syrians,” Cebici concluded.
Globally
What about those who are not Syria’s neighbors? The outcome in Syria will have consequences globally. Future foreign policy and international relations will depend on how governments react to Syria’s civil war. Cebeci summarized the issue when he stated, “Most of us on the panel agree that the conflict in Syria will only get worse in the foreseeable future, and the lack of consensus and inaction among the international community over the past two years has prevented any meaningful, decisive action in Syria.”
