ovember opens with a presidential runoff in Sofia on the first and closes with a Spanish general election and four Swiss federal votes on the twenty-ninth. In between it hosts the most consequential American midterm in a generation. Few months on the electoral calendar have concentrated so much of the West’s internal argument into so few weeks. Voters in Bulgaria will decide whether a Moscow-friendly government also controls the presidency, Americans will deliver a verdict on the second Trump administration at a moment when the president’s approval sits near a career low, and Spaniards will choose between a battered Socialist incumbent and a right-wing bloc that polls suggest could command a comfortable majority.
The common thread is less ideology than exhaustion with the cost of living. Energy and fuel prices pushed higher by the war in Iran, disruptions to Black Sea shipping from drone attacks, housing shortages from Madrid to Auckland, and anxiety about migration run through nearly every campaign on this list. How those grievances translate into seats will shape NATO’s eastern flank, the balance of power in Washington, Europe’s third-largest center-left government, and even the neutrality doctrine of Switzerland.
At least four scheduled late-year contests have already been pushed back. Haiti’s long-delayed presidential and legislative elections were just moved again to July 2027. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas recently postponed November 28 legislative elections and called for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on September 11, 2027. Earlier this year, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa extended the current legislative term of both chambers of Parliament to late 2027. Nicaragua’s general elections, originally set for November 1, are expected to be delayed until 2028 under constitutional reforms awaiting final approval.
Bulgaria: Presidential Runoff, November 1
Bulgaria’s runoff pits acting president Iliana Iotova against reformist Andrey Gyurov after a first round on October 25 that confounded the pollsters. Pre-election surveys had Iotova leading every poll with between roughly 40 and 52 percent, yet the Central Election Commission’s count, with 99.94 percent of ballots processed, gave her 34.8 percent against Gyurov’s 31.9 percent on a record-low turnout of 22.5 percent, according to Alpha Research, down from 40.5 percent in 2021. Iotova, who assumed the presidency in January when Rumen Radev resigned to lead his Progressive Bulgaria party to victory in April’s parliamentary election, runs as an independent backed by Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialists.
The contest has become a referendum on Bulgaria’s posture toward Russia. Iotova favors continued European integration but calls for better relations with Moscow and the lifting of sanctions, while Gyurov, a former deputy central bank governor and caretaker prime minister, signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv and has pledged that Bulgaria will be a “reliable NATO ally.” Prime Minister Radev has framed the second round as a choice “between peace and war,” a phrase his opponents read as an echo of Kremlin messaging and his supporters as a plea for de-escalation after drone attacks on Black Sea shipping killed or left missing several sailors. An Iotova victory would give the ruling majority control of both the government and the presidency, which observers warn could weaken checks and balances in a frontline EU and NATO state; a Gyurov upset would install a pro-Ukraine counterweight with a veto over key appointments and a voice in foreign policy.
United States: Midterm Elections, November 3
Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the country’s 100 senators, and governors in 36 states and three territories. The results will provide the first nationwide measure of voter sentiment toward President Donald Trump’s second administration. The backdrop is unusually hostile for the governing party: a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 put Trump’s approval at 32 percent, one point above his record low, and found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 47 to 36 among registered voters and 53 to 44 among likely voters. Seventy-three percent of respondents said the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, a mood shaped by fuel prices that rose after US strikes on Iran in February; Democrats now hold a 37 to 33 edge on who has the better economic approach, an issue Republicans led before the war.
The Senate is where the outcome is least certain. Republicans currently hold a 53 to 47 majority, and Democratic hopes rest on states Trump carried. Nate Silver’s model, updated October 27, shows Democrats narrowly ahead in Texas by 2.4 points, Ohio by 3.2, Alaska by 3.7 and Maine by 2, each indicating a close race. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are virtually tied; in Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown is challenging appointed Republican Jon Husted in a race with more than $500 million in advertising spent or reserved. Mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, California’s countermove through Proposition 50, and the Supreme Court’s April ruling in Louisiana v. Callais weakening parts of the Voting Rights Act complicate the House map. Republicans argue the polls overstate Democratic strength, as they did in 2016 and 2020, while Democrats point to their larger-than-expected wins in New Jersey and Virginia in 2025. For allies, a Democratic House would bring subpoena power and leverage over war funding, tariffs and the Iran campaign in the final two years of Trump’s term.
New Zealand: General Election, November 7
New Zealand’s election is a genuine toss-up between Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National–ACT–NZ First coalition and a Labour-led opposition under Chris Hipkins. The most recent 1News Verian poll, conducted October 21–25 among 1,000 voters, put National at 29 percent, Labour at 27, the Greens at 15, ACT at a term-high 12, NZ First at 10 and The Opportunity Party at 6. On those numbers the three governing parties would win 61 seats, a bare majority only if Te Pāti Māori holds a single electorate; if it holds four, the resulting overhang enlarges Parliament to 125 seats, leaving the right two short and handing The Opportunity Party’s projected eight MPs the balance of power. Luxon leads Hipkins as preferred prime minister by 24 percent to 18, the widest gap in 1News polling this year.
The campaign’s final stretch has been dominated by a row over candidates’ contacts with gangs, which cost Labour its Tāmaki Makaurau candidate and also touched the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, alongside the cost of living, housing and health. The opposition has also attacked the Electoral Amendment Act 2025, which limits late enrolment and bars prisoners from voting, as voter suppression, while the government describes it as an integrity measure. A change of government in Wellington would matter beyond the Pacific: New Zealand’s positioning on the AUKUS “Pillar II” partnership, its trade relationship with China and its posture in the Pacific Islands Forum all shift with the governing coalition, and a kingmaker role for a new centrist party would be a first under MMP.
Spain: Snap General Election, November 29
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called this election on October 5 after Congress rejected two housing decrees at the center of his response to Spain’s housing crisis. His government had already been weakened by a migration emergency in Ceuta, where tens of thousands crossed from Morocco in late July, by corruption proceedings involving figures close to the Socialist PSOE, and by a string of legislative defeats. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are at stake, with 176 needed for a majority; the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo starts from 137 seats and the PSOE from 121.
Most polling points toward a right-wing majority. GAD3 for ABC projects the PP at 31.4 percent and 133 seats, the PSOE at 26.4 percent and 107, and Santiago Abascal’s Vox at 18.2 percent and 65, while SocioMétrica for El Español gives the PP and Vox a combined 205 seats, 29 above a majority. The state-run CIS is the outlier, putting the PSOE first at 34 percent, a result most analysts treat with caution. The PSOE’s path depends on reuniting a fragmented left, including the new Sumar-led Broad Front and Irene Montero’s Podemos, and on regional parties such as ERC, Junts and the PNV. Sánchez argues that a Vox-dependent government would roll back civil rights and strain relations with Brussels; Feijóo counters that the Socialists have lost control of housing, migration and their own party’s ethics. A PP government reliant on Vox would move one of the EU’s largest economies to the right on migration and Morocco policy and would remove the most prominent European social-democratic leader from the European Council.
Switzerland: Federal Referendums, November 29
On the same day as Spain votes, Swiss citizens will decide four federal proposals, and the most internationally significant would loosen the country’s arms-export regime. The revision of the War Materiel Act would allow exports to partner states involved in armed conflict under specified conditions and waive some buyers’ obligation to seek Swiss consent before re-exporting weapons, a change that European governments supplying Ukraine have long sought and that the government and parliament recommend. The first gfs.bern survey for SSR, conducted October 5–18, found the measure trailing by 41 percent to 49, with 10 percent undecided.
The same poll showed a 0.4-percentage-point VAT increase to fund the 13th annual state pension narrowly opposed at 46 to 49 percent, a constitutional amendment on joint taxation of married couples ahead at 55 to 34, and an initiative restricting noisy fireworks drawing 69 percent support. Opponents of the arms-export change argue it erodes neutrality, while supporters say Swiss defense firms are losing European customers who cannot count on spare parts and ammunition in a crisis.
Also on the Ballot: Grenada (November 5) and Cape Verde (November 15)
Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell called a snap election for November 5, almost a year before the constitutional deadline, seeking a second term for his National Democratic Congress, which held a 9–6 majority in the 15-seat House; the New National Party enters under Emmalin Pierre, the first woman to lead it into a general election. In Cape Verde, one of West Africa’s most stable democracies, President José Maria Neves is seeking a second five-year term on November 15, with former justice minister Joana Rosa as the MpD’s candidate after the PAICV ousted the MpD from government in this year’s parliamentary election.
What November Reveals
Taken together, November’s contests suggest that the war economy, rather than the wars themselves, is now the decisive variable in democratic politics. Voters in Bulgaria are weighing security against energy bills, Americans are pricing the Iran campaign at the gas pump, and Spaniards and New Zealanders are punishing or rewarding governments on housing. Incumbents everywhere are on the defensive, but the direction of the swing differs: leftward in the United States, rightward in Spain, and almost perfectly balanced in New Zealand.
The calendar does not pause in December. The Gambia votes for president on December 5. Guinea-Bissau is scheduled to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 6 amid discussions about the feasibility of keeping that date. Fiji is preparing for a December 9 referendum on proposed constitutional reforms to its parliamentary and electoral systems. South Sudan is expected to hold general elections on December 22.
Diplomatic Courier will continue tracking these elections and their implications for the broader geopolitical landscape, including how shifts in political leadership and policy priorities shape global cooperation, economic resilience, and the future of governance.
AI disclosure note: AI [Claude Opus 5.5] assisted in the research and outline of the article before it was drafted by the authors.
Learn more: diplomaticourier.com/ai-transparency
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A Month of Referendums on Power: November 2026’s Elections to Watch
Photo by Kamran Abdullay via Unsplash+
November 1, 2026
From a Bulgarian runoff framed as a choice between “peace and war” to an American midterm held under the shadow of the Iran war, and a Spanish snap election called over housing, November’s ballots will test incumbents on three continents and redraw the map of Western alliances.
N
ovember opens with a presidential runoff in Sofia on the first and closes with a Spanish general election and four Swiss federal votes on the twenty-ninth. In between it hosts the most consequential American midterm in a generation. Few months on the electoral calendar have concentrated so much of the West’s internal argument into so few weeks. Voters in Bulgaria will decide whether a Moscow-friendly government also controls the presidency, Americans will deliver a verdict on the second Trump administration at a moment when the president’s approval sits near a career low, and Spaniards will choose between a battered Socialist incumbent and a right-wing bloc that polls suggest could command a comfortable majority.
The common thread is less ideology than exhaustion with the cost of living. Energy and fuel prices pushed higher by the war in Iran, disruptions to Black Sea shipping from drone attacks, housing shortages from Madrid to Auckland, and anxiety about migration run through nearly every campaign on this list. How those grievances translate into seats will shape NATO’s eastern flank, the balance of power in Washington, Europe’s third-largest center-left government, and even the neutrality doctrine of Switzerland.
At least four scheduled late-year contests have already been pushed back. Haiti’s long-delayed presidential and legislative elections were just moved again to July 2027. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas recently postponed November 28 legislative elections and called for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on September 11, 2027. Earlier this year, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa extended the current legislative term of both chambers of Parliament to late 2027. Nicaragua’s general elections, originally set for November 1, are expected to be delayed until 2028 under constitutional reforms awaiting final approval.
Bulgaria: Presidential Runoff, November 1
Bulgaria’s runoff pits acting president Iliana Iotova against reformist Andrey Gyurov after a first round on October 25 that confounded the pollsters. Pre-election surveys had Iotova leading every poll with between roughly 40 and 52 percent, yet the Central Election Commission’s count, with 99.94 percent of ballots processed, gave her 34.8 percent against Gyurov’s 31.9 percent on a record-low turnout of 22.5 percent, according to Alpha Research, down from 40.5 percent in 2021. Iotova, who assumed the presidency in January when Rumen Radev resigned to lead his Progressive Bulgaria party to victory in April’s parliamentary election, runs as an independent backed by Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialists.
The contest has become a referendum on Bulgaria’s posture toward Russia. Iotova favors continued European integration but calls for better relations with Moscow and the lifting of sanctions, while Gyurov, a former deputy central bank governor and caretaker prime minister, signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv and has pledged that Bulgaria will be a “reliable NATO ally.” Prime Minister Radev has framed the second round as a choice “between peace and war,” a phrase his opponents read as an echo of Kremlin messaging and his supporters as a plea for de-escalation after drone attacks on Black Sea shipping killed or left missing several sailors. An Iotova victory would give the ruling majority control of both the government and the presidency, which observers warn could weaken checks and balances in a frontline EU and NATO state; a Gyurov upset would install a pro-Ukraine counterweight with a veto over key appointments and a voice in foreign policy.
United States: Midterm Elections, November 3
Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the country’s 100 senators, and governors in 36 states and three territories. The results will provide the first nationwide measure of voter sentiment toward President Donald Trump’s second administration. The backdrop is unusually hostile for the governing party: a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 put Trump’s approval at 32 percent, one point above his record low, and found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 47 to 36 among registered voters and 53 to 44 among likely voters. Seventy-three percent of respondents said the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, a mood shaped by fuel prices that rose after US strikes on Iran in February; Democrats now hold a 37 to 33 edge on who has the better economic approach, an issue Republicans led before the war.
The Senate is where the outcome is least certain. Republicans currently hold a 53 to 47 majority, and Democratic hopes rest on states Trump carried. Nate Silver’s model, updated October 27, shows Democrats narrowly ahead in Texas by 2.4 points, Ohio by 3.2, Alaska by 3.7 and Maine by 2, each indicating a close race. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are virtually tied; in Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown is challenging appointed Republican Jon Husted in a race with more than $500 million in advertising spent or reserved. Mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, California’s countermove through Proposition 50, and the Supreme Court’s April ruling in Louisiana v. Callais weakening parts of the Voting Rights Act complicate the House map. Republicans argue the polls overstate Democratic strength, as they did in 2016 and 2020, while Democrats point to their larger-than-expected wins in New Jersey and Virginia in 2025. For allies, a Democratic House would bring subpoena power and leverage over war funding, tariffs and the Iran campaign in the final two years of Trump’s term.
New Zealand: General Election, November 7
New Zealand’s election is a genuine toss-up between Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National–ACT–NZ First coalition and a Labour-led opposition under Chris Hipkins. The most recent 1News Verian poll, conducted October 21–25 among 1,000 voters, put National at 29 percent, Labour at 27, the Greens at 15, ACT at a term-high 12, NZ First at 10 and The Opportunity Party at 6. On those numbers the three governing parties would win 61 seats, a bare majority only if Te Pāti Māori holds a single electorate; if it holds four, the resulting overhang enlarges Parliament to 125 seats, leaving the right two short and handing The Opportunity Party’s projected eight MPs the balance of power. Luxon leads Hipkins as preferred prime minister by 24 percent to 18, the widest gap in 1News polling this year.
The campaign’s final stretch has been dominated by a row over candidates’ contacts with gangs, which cost Labour its Tāmaki Makaurau candidate and also touched the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, alongside the cost of living, housing and health. The opposition has also attacked the Electoral Amendment Act 2025, which limits late enrolment and bars prisoners from voting, as voter suppression, while the government describes it as an integrity measure. A change of government in Wellington would matter beyond the Pacific: New Zealand’s positioning on the AUKUS “Pillar II” partnership, its trade relationship with China and its posture in the Pacific Islands Forum all shift with the governing coalition, and a kingmaker role for a new centrist party would be a first under MMP.
Spain: Snap General Election, November 29
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called this election on October 5 after Congress rejected two housing decrees at the center of his response to Spain’s housing crisis. His government had already been weakened by a migration emergency in Ceuta, where tens of thousands crossed from Morocco in late July, by corruption proceedings involving figures close to the Socialist PSOE, and by a string of legislative defeats. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are at stake, with 176 needed for a majority; the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo starts from 137 seats and the PSOE from 121.
Most polling points toward a right-wing majority. GAD3 for ABC projects the PP at 31.4 percent and 133 seats, the PSOE at 26.4 percent and 107, and Santiago Abascal’s Vox at 18.2 percent and 65, while SocioMétrica for El Español gives the PP and Vox a combined 205 seats, 29 above a majority. The state-run CIS is the outlier, putting the PSOE first at 34 percent, a result most analysts treat with caution. The PSOE’s path depends on reuniting a fragmented left, including the new Sumar-led Broad Front and Irene Montero’s Podemos, and on regional parties such as ERC, Junts and the PNV. Sánchez argues that a Vox-dependent government would roll back civil rights and strain relations with Brussels; Feijóo counters that the Socialists have lost control of housing, migration and their own party’s ethics. A PP government reliant on Vox would move one of the EU’s largest economies to the right on migration and Morocco policy and would remove the most prominent European social-democratic leader from the European Council.
Switzerland: Federal Referendums, November 29
On the same day as Spain votes, Swiss citizens will decide four federal proposals, and the most internationally significant would loosen the country’s arms-export regime. The revision of the War Materiel Act would allow exports to partner states involved in armed conflict under specified conditions and waive some buyers’ obligation to seek Swiss consent before re-exporting weapons, a change that European governments supplying Ukraine have long sought and that the government and parliament recommend. The first gfs.bern survey for SSR, conducted October 5–18, found the measure trailing by 41 percent to 49, with 10 percent undecided.
The same poll showed a 0.4-percentage-point VAT increase to fund the 13th annual state pension narrowly opposed at 46 to 49 percent, a constitutional amendment on joint taxation of married couples ahead at 55 to 34, and an initiative restricting noisy fireworks drawing 69 percent support. Opponents of the arms-export change argue it erodes neutrality, while supporters say Swiss defense firms are losing European customers who cannot count on spare parts and ammunition in a crisis.
Also on the Ballot: Grenada (November 5) and Cape Verde (November 15)
Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell called a snap election for November 5, almost a year before the constitutional deadline, seeking a second term for his National Democratic Congress, which held a 9–6 majority in the 15-seat House; the New National Party enters under Emmalin Pierre, the first woman to lead it into a general election. In Cape Verde, one of West Africa’s most stable democracies, President José Maria Neves is seeking a second five-year term on November 15, with former justice minister Joana Rosa as the MpD’s candidate after the PAICV ousted the MpD from government in this year’s parliamentary election.
What November Reveals
Taken together, November’s contests suggest that the war economy, rather than the wars themselves, is now the decisive variable in democratic politics. Voters in Bulgaria are weighing security against energy bills, Americans are pricing the Iran campaign at the gas pump, and Spaniards and New Zealanders are punishing or rewarding governments on housing. Incumbents everywhere are on the defensive, but the direction of the swing differs: leftward in the United States, rightward in Spain, and almost perfectly balanced in New Zealand.
The calendar does not pause in December. The Gambia votes for president on December 5. Guinea-Bissau is scheduled to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 6 amid discussions about the feasibility of keeping that date. Fiji is preparing for a December 9 referendum on proposed constitutional reforms to its parliamentary and electoral systems. South Sudan is expected to hold general elections on December 22.
Diplomatic Courier will continue tracking these elections and their implications for the broader geopolitical landscape, including how shifts in political leadership and policy priorities shape global cooperation, economic resilience, and the future of governance.
AI disclosure note: AI [Claude Opus 5.5] assisted in the research and outline of the article before it was drafted by the authors.
Learn more: diplomaticourier.com/ai-transparency
