s the COVID-19 pandemic ravages the country and with a humanitarian crisis unfolding within its borders, it might seem untimely for India to exert efforts to restore democracy in Myanmar. But in geopolitics, there’s nothing more important than decisive, opportune action. While India’s Westphalian non-interventionist foreign policy has been a subject of robust discussion, credited as both a success and failure, it is high time for the world’s largest democracy to resort to action; walk the talk. Since the Tatmadaw, the Burmese military junta, led by its Commander-in-Chief General Min Aung Hlaing, ousted the Suu Kyi government on 1 February 2021, Myanmar has witnessed the rise of widespread civil protests and excessive aggression by the military, killing more than 700 civilians, including children. As violence escalates, India’s failure to support Myanmar’s democratic aspirations will have a far-reaching impact on its national security as well as stability in the region.
India has high stakes in reinstating democratic rule in Myanmar. India and Myanmar share a 1643 km long land boundary, as well as a long maritime border across the Bay of Bengal, making the state essential to fortifying India’s northeastern frontier from Chinese aggression. Though China’s initial response in the UN corroborates rumors of its support for the coup, Beijing’s public statements and recent recourses through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) signal that it wants to assert itself as a mediator and power broker in Myanmar. This is a highly strategic move to reinforce Chinese influence within the army, with which it has had a complex relationship, and embed itself more directly in the crisis.
From the Indian perspective, the current crisis in Myanmar holds many parallels to the civil unrest in erstwhile East Pakistan, culminating in the Bangladeshi War of Independence in 1971. Though prescriptive strategies vary significantly in these scenarios, it is imperative to apply a similar lens to the crisis in Myanmar and heed the call for intervention from Burmese citizens. In the current stay of play, India’s non-interference would not only undermine its security interests but also its commitment to democratic ideals.
India’s preliminary response in the UN does not instill confidence and its reluctance to join other democratic nations to act on restoring the dissolved parliament was viewed in Myanmar and globally as a sign of its own bend towards authoritarianism in recent years. Besides, sustained instability in Myanmar will result in massive inflows of refugees to the Indian states of Mizoram and Manipur. India’s decision to deport Burmese asylum seekers has been met with dissidence in these states due to the strong ethnic bonds and kinship ties shared between communities across the border; there are increasing demands from state governments to assist civilians fleeing the junta rule. Chaos in Myanmar will also create fresh opportunities for drug cartels to ramp up production of Ya Ba, the “madness drug”, leading to an increase in the cross-border trafficking of amphetamines and other drugs into Indian border states.
Since it's evident that international action for interference will face strong opposition from China and Russia in the UN Security Council and Sino-centric governments in the ASEAN, India must leverage the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), the forum to promote freedom and liberal values in the Indo-Pacific, to accomplish the mission. While support for democracy in Myanmar found special mention in the Quad Leaders' Joint Statement, released following its first-ever leader-level summit, it’s up to India, the most important stakeholder, to catalyze decisive action and mediate between the military and NLD to bring a peaceful end to the crisis.
The Indian army has a long history of working together with Myanmar forces. Both sides have routinely locked arms under “Operation Sunrise” to fight insurgencies along the Indo-Burmese border. Maintaining a cooperative relationship with the Indian army is essential for the Tatmadaw to fight the Chinese-backed Arakan Army, the insurgent group challenging Myanmar’s authority in the Rakhine state. Further, Burmese forces regularly receive training in India, and last December, the Tatmadaw was gifted its first submarine by New Delhi.
While the presence of India’s military attaché at the Tatmadaw Day parade on March 27 received condemnation from anti-coup protestors, it signifies the existence of a functional channel that could be used to seek a democratic end to the crisis. India must leverage its relationship with the Tatmadaw to open backroom negotiations and call upon the support of the Quad to create a conducive environment for mediation.
India must immediately cast off its wariness in voicing support for democracy in the fear of alienating the Tatmadaw and place its entire might on finding a resolution that serves the people of Myanmar and its strategic interests. To this end, it must first show the carrots and then the stick to put pressure on General Hlaing to welcome Indian mediation to reinstate the power-sharing mechanism in Myanmar.
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How India Can Restore Democracy in Myanmar
Photo by AdobeStock.
May 13, 2021
As violence escalates in Myanmar, India’s failure to support its neighbor's democratic aspirations will have a far-reaching impact on its national security as well as stability in the region.
A
s the COVID-19 pandemic ravages the country and with a humanitarian crisis unfolding within its borders, it might seem untimely for India to exert efforts to restore democracy in Myanmar. But in geopolitics, there’s nothing more important than decisive, opportune action. While India’s Westphalian non-interventionist foreign policy has been a subject of robust discussion, credited as both a success and failure, it is high time for the world’s largest democracy to resort to action; walk the talk. Since the Tatmadaw, the Burmese military junta, led by its Commander-in-Chief General Min Aung Hlaing, ousted the Suu Kyi government on 1 February 2021, Myanmar has witnessed the rise of widespread civil protests and excessive aggression by the military, killing more than 700 civilians, including children. As violence escalates, India’s failure to support Myanmar’s democratic aspirations will have a far-reaching impact on its national security as well as stability in the region.
India has high stakes in reinstating democratic rule in Myanmar. India and Myanmar share a 1643 km long land boundary, as well as a long maritime border across the Bay of Bengal, making the state essential to fortifying India’s northeastern frontier from Chinese aggression. Though China’s initial response in the UN corroborates rumors of its support for the coup, Beijing’s public statements and recent recourses through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) signal that it wants to assert itself as a mediator and power broker in Myanmar. This is a highly strategic move to reinforce Chinese influence within the army, with which it has had a complex relationship, and embed itself more directly in the crisis.
From the Indian perspective, the current crisis in Myanmar holds many parallels to the civil unrest in erstwhile East Pakistan, culminating in the Bangladeshi War of Independence in 1971. Though prescriptive strategies vary significantly in these scenarios, it is imperative to apply a similar lens to the crisis in Myanmar and heed the call for intervention from Burmese citizens. In the current stay of play, India’s non-interference would not only undermine its security interests but also its commitment to democratic ideals.
India’s preliminary response in the UN does not instill confidence and its reluctance to join other democratic nations to act on restoring the dissolved parliament was viewed in Myanmar and globally as a sign of its own bend towards authoritarianism in recent years. Besides, sustained instability in Myanmar will result in massive inflows of refugees to the Indian states of Mizoram and Manipur. India’s decision to deport Burmese asylum seekers has been met with dissidence in these states due to the strong ethnic bonds and kinship ties shared between communities across the border; there are increasing demands from state governments to assist civilians fleeing the junta rule. Chaos in Myanmar will also create fresh opportunities for drug cartels to ramp up production of Ya Ba, the “madness drug”, leading to an increase in the cross-border trafficking of amphetamines and other drugs into Indian border states.
Since it's evident that international action for interference will face strong opposition from China and Russia in the UN Security Council and Sino-centric governments in the ASEAN, India must leverage the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), the forum to promote freedom and liberal values in the Indo-Pacific, to accomplish the mission. While support for democracy in Myanmar found special mention in the Quad Leaders' Joint Statement, released following its first-ever leader-level summit, it’s up to India, the most important stakeholder, to catalyze decisive action and mediate between the military and NLD to bring a peaceful end to the crisis.
The Indian army has a long history of working together with Myanmar forces. Both sides have routinely locked arms under “Operation Sunrise” to fight insurgencies along the Indo-Burmese border. Maintaining a cooperative relationship with the Indian army is essential for the Tatmadaw to fight the Chinese-backed Arakan Army, the insurgent group challenging Myanmar’s authority in the Rakhine state. Further, Burmese forces regularly receive training in India, and last December, the Tatmadaw was gifted its first submarine by New Delhi.
While the presence of India’s military attaché at the Tatmadaw Day parade on March 27 received condemnation from anti-coup protestors, it signifies the existence of a functional channel that could be used to seek a democratic end to the crisis. India must leverage its relationship with the Tatmadaw to open backroom negotiations and call upon the support of the Quad to create a conducive environment for mediation.
India must immediately cast off its wariness in voicing support for democracy in the fear of alienating the Tatmadaw and place its entire might on finding a resolution that serves the people of Myanmar and its strategic interests. To this end, it must first show the carrots and then the stick to put pressure on General Hlaing to welcome Indian mediation to reinstate the power-sharing mechanism in Myanmar.
