espite heightened tensions between the PRC (People’s Republic of China) and Taiwan, their economies remain intertwined. Currently Taiwan’s largest trading partner, the PRC intends to deepen economic ties, in line with achieving its long–awaited goal of reunification. However, the 2021 fraud scandal—and subsequent collapse—of the PRC’s most prominent real estate developer, the Evergrande Group, complicated this endeavor. For Taiwan, the scandal has stirred up long–building fears of a failing Chinese economy dragging down Taiwanese successes—as recently as 2016, former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing–Wen’s New Southbound Policy (新南向政策) encouraged domestic investors to shift from China to Southeast Asian supply chains. Today, most Taiwanese citizens today are in favor of upholding the status quo with regard to reunification, but a shift in media sentiment could indicate a domestic trend in favor of further separation between the two.
Analysts from DisinfoLab, a student–led think tank at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, examined how Taiwanese media outlets, aligned with opposing political parties, responded to the Evergrande scandal. These responses showcase Taiwanese perspectives on Taiwan–PRC relations, which are especially important given the PRC's long–term reunification agenda.
Green–aligned publications, which are historically pro–Taiwanese independence, criticized the PRC’s economic crisis, of which the housing crisis that contributed to Evergrande’s collapse is a part, and its devastating impacts. On the other side of the political aisle, blue–aligned publications, which tend to favor maintaining a strong relationship with the PRC, emphasized its attempts to remedy the Evergrande disaster and hold the company accountable. The highly partisan Taiwanese response to the Evergrande collapse illustrates how strongly Taiwanese perceptions of China’s economic strength impact narratives about what future Taiwan–China relations should look like.
Taiwan’s Political Parties: The KMT and DPP
Two parties dominate the Taiwanese political landscape: the KMT (Kuomintang) which is center–right, and the younger DPP (Democratic Progressive Party). The KMT holds the view that the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan both belong to “One China,” as stated in the 1992 consensus. It also maintains the goal of eventual reunification with the mainland, though under Taiwanese terms. In recent years however, the party has distanced itself from the consensus, which has become increasingly less favored in Taiwan. The DPP, which has won the past three presidential elections with a coalition of green–aligned parties, advocates for Taiwanese sovereignty and total separation from the PRC.
Methodology
DisinfoLab analyzed the headlines of four major Taiwanese news organizations to examine the island’s partisan viewpoints on the Evergrande crisis. Analysts selected two green–aligned publications (Formosa News and Liberty Times) and two blue–aligned publications (China Times and United Daily News), informed by surveys of the Taiwanese media landscape by Reuters and Taiwan’s Central News Agency. Blue–aligned publications reported more heavily on the scandal than green–aligned publications, so analysts used proportional, random sampling to measure sentiment of coverage. From each publication, analysts randomly selected 20% of all articles published mentioning Evergrande (恒大) from 2021–2024—ensuring a minimum of at least three articles from each publication. This method ensured each news source was represented fairly, with article–dense publications contributing a proportionate number of articles, while ones with fewer were still included. Analysts then translated the headlines from Mandarin to English using Google Translate and classified each into one of three categories: crisis focused, solution focused, or neither.
Green–Aligned Emphasize PRC’s Economic Weakness
Green–aligned articles tended to use the scandal to draw conclusions about the poor health of the Chinese economy and its consequences for Taiwan. Out of the articles we selected, 85.71% of them were explicitly crisis focused, emphasizing the scandal’s negative effects. Headlines from the green–aligned Formosa News included, “Chinese economy could enter indefinite decline” and “Taiwan shares close down amid Evergrande fears.” Following a similar theme, articles from the green–aligned Liberty Times included, “Financial Red Lights: Don't take China's Bank Exposure to China lightly” and “Debt–ridden Chinese dream.” Additionally, green–aligned publications did not focus any articles on steps being taken by the Chinese government to address the scandal. This absence of coverage suggests a selective narrative that emphasizes the crisis and not remedial action, supporting the DPP party platform of encouraging economic decoupling from the PRC. If the Chinese economy is truly faltering uncontrollably, a DPP led–government would likely risk regional instability by diversifying trade partnerships—a political move already initiated with former president Tsai Ing–Wen’s New Southbound Policy.
Blue–Aligned Focus on the Positive
In contrast, blue–aligned articles were more likely to be solution focused, examining efforts being made by the Chinese government to punish the Evergrande company for its actions. Out of all articles from blue–aligned sources, 61.54% fell under this category. One headline from China Times read, “In order to resume production and help debt negotiations, Evergrande divested its real estate business for 2 yuan.” Similarly, blue–aligned United Daily News (UDN) published, “Shenzhen: Safely handle Evergrande's debt risks” and “Evergrande landmine official: The state will take care of it.” Articles from blue–aligned publications construct a narrative of a Chinese government that is acting properly to manage its economic fallout. These publications also published far more heavily on the crisis than green–aligned publications, likely to protect the PRC’s image and ensure Taiwanese concerns did not escalate.
It is unsurprising that these organizations are wary of critiquing the PRC’s handling of the crisis and instead promote its recovery and accountability efforts. The KMT party today is extremely concerned about a future where Taiwan pulls too far away from the PRC and incites conflict. The emphasis on the PRC’s actions instead of the scandal’s impact means that a major Taiwanese political party still values a positive relationship with the mainland. However, this unofficial stance comes with risks of a rocky Chinese economy weighing down Taiwan.
Conclusion
The scrutiny U.S. policymakers place on cross–strait military relations—most recently with the $300 million of military aid to Taiwan—often overshadows the crucial economic relationship between the PRC and Taiwan. The Taiwanese media’s coverage of the Evergrande scandal highlights the sharp partisan division regarding opinions on future economic cooperation with the PRC. This division is especially relevant with former president Tsai Ing–Wen’s New Southbound Policy that encourages Taiwanese–owned corporations to expand investments from the mainland to Southeast Asia and India. Should the KMT join the DPP’s policy goals of economic decoupling from the PRC and support the policy’s trend, we should expect tensions to rise. Taking an economic angle to analyze Taiwanese public opinion is more important than ever, as the PRC may interpret such a policy shift as a tipping point.
Editor's Note: Technical and research support for this project was provided by DisinfoLab analysts Stephen Gerson and Max White.
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Evergrande’s collapse tests future of Taiwan–China economic ties
Photo by Chriz Luminario via Pexels.
February 13, 2025
Evergrande’s collapse is deepening Taiwan-China economic tensions, shaping political divides and fueling debates over decoupling strategies, according to College of William & Mary DisinfoLab's research.
D
espite heightened tensions between the PRC (People’s Republic of China) and Taiwan, their economies remain intertwined. Currently Taiwan’s largest trading partner, the PRC intends to deepen economic ties, in line with achieving its long–awaited goal of reunification. However, the 2021 fraud scandal—and subsequent collapse—of the PRC’s most prominent real estate developer, the Evergrande Group, complicated this endeavor. For Taiwan, the scandal has stirred up long–building fears of a failing Chinese economy dragging down Taiwanese successes—as recently as 2016, former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing–Wen’s New Southbound Policy (新南向政策) encouraged domestic investors to shift from China to Southeast Asian supply chains. Today, most Taiwanese citizens today are in favor of upholding the status quo with regard to reunification, but a shift in media sentiment could indicate a domestic trend in favor of further separation between the two.
Analysts from DisinfoLab, a student–led think tank at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, examined how Taiwanese media outlets, aligned with opposing political parties, responded to the Evergrande scandal. These responses showcase Taiwanese perspectives on Taiwan–PRC relations, which are especially important given the PRC's long–term reunification agenda.
Green–aligned publications, which are historically pro–Taiwanese independence, criticized the PRC’s economic crisis, of which the housing crisis that contributed to Evergrande’s collapse is a part, and its devastating impacts. On the other side of the political aisle, blue–aligned publications, which tend to favor maintaining a strong relationship with the PRC, emphasized its attempts to remedy the Evergrande disaster and hold the company accountable. The highly partisan Taiwanese response to the Evergrande collapse illustrates how strongly Taiwanese perceptions of China’s economic strength impact narratives about what future Taiwan–China relations should look like.
Taiwan’s Political Parties: The KMT and DPP
Two parties dominate the Taiwanese political landscape: the KMT (Kuomintang) which is center–right, and the younger DPP (Democratic Progressive Party). The KMT holds the view that the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan both belong to “One China,” as stated in the 1992 consensus. It also maintains the goal of eventual reunification with the mainland, though under Taiwanese terms. In recent years however, the party has distanced itself from the consensus, which has become increasingly less favored in Taiwan. The DPP, which has won the past three presidential elections with a coalition of green–aligned parties, advocates for Taiwanese sovereignty and total separation from the PRC.
Methodology
DisinfoLab analyzed the headlines of four major Taiwanese news organizations to examine the island’s partisan viewpoints on the Evergrande crisis. Analysts selected two green–aligned publications (Formosa News and Liberty Times) and two blue–aligned publications (China Times and United Daily News), informed by surveys of the Taiwanese media landscape by Reuters and Taiwan’s Central News Agency. Blue–aligned publications reported more heavily on the scandal than green–aligned publications, so analysts used proportional, random sampling to measure sentiment of coverage. From each publication, analysts randomly selected 20% of all articles published mentioning Evergrande (恒大) from 2021–2024—ensuring a minimum of at least three articles from each publication. This method ensured each news source was represented fairly, with article–dense publications contributing a proportionate number of articles, while ones with fewer were still included. Analysts then translated the headlines from Mandarin to English using Google Translate and classified each into one of three categories: crisis focused, solution focused, or neither.
Green–Aligned Emphasize PRC’s Economic Weakness
Green–aligned articles tended to use the scandal to draw conclusions about the poor health of the Chinese economy and its consequences for Taiwan. Out of the articles we selected, 85.71% of them were explicitly crisis focused, emphasizing the scandal’s negative effects. Headlines from the green–aligned Formosa News included, “Chinese economy could enter indefinite decline” and “Taiwan shares close down amid Evergrande fears.” Following a similar theme, articles from the green–aligned Liberty Times included, “Financial Red Lights: Don't take China's Bank Exposure to China lightly” and “Debt–ridden Chinese dream.” Additionally, green–aligned publications did not focus any articles on steps being taken by the Chinese government to address the scandal. This absence of coverage suggests a selective narrative that emphasizes the crisis and not remedial action, supporting the DPP party platform of encouraging economic decoupling from the PRC. If the Chinese economy is truly faltering uncontrollably, a DPP led–government would likely risk regional instability by diversifying trade partnerships—a political move already initiated with former president Tsai Ing–Wen’s New Southbound Policy.
Blue–Aligned Focus on the Positive
In contrast, blue–aligned articles were more likely to be solution focused, examining efforts being made by the Chinese government to punish the Evergrande company for its actions. Out of all articles from blue–aligned sources, 61.54% fell under this category. One headline from China Times read, “In order to resume production and help debt negotiations, Evergrande divested its real estate business for 2 yuan.” Similarly, blue–aligned United Daily News (UDN) published, “Shenzhen: Safely handle Evergrande's debt risks” and “Evergrande landmine official: The state will take care of it.” Articles from blue–aligned publications construct a narrative of a Chinese government that is acting properly to manage its economic fallout. These publications also published far more heavily on the crisis than green–aligned publications, likely to protect the PRC’s image and ensure Taiwanese concerns did not escalate.
It is unsurprising that these organizations are wary of critiquing the PRC’s handling of the crisis and instead promote its recovery and accountability efforts. The KMT party today is extremely concerned about a future where Taiwan pulls too far away from the PRC and incites conflict. The emphasis on the PRC’s actions instead of the scandal’s impact means that a major Taiwanese political party still values a positive relationship with the mainland. However, this unofficial stance comes with risks of a rocky Chinese economy weighing down Taiwan.
Conclusion
The scrutiny U.S. policymakers place on cross–strait military relations—most recently with the $300 million of military aid to Taiwan—often overshadows the crucial economic relationship between the PRC and Taiwan. The Taiwanese media’s coverage of the Evergrande scandal highlights the sharp partisan division regarding opinions on future economic cooperation with the PRC. This division is especially relevant with former president Tsai Ing–Wen’s New Southbound Policy that encourages Taiwanese–owned corporations to expand investments from the mainland to Southeast Asia and India. Should the KMT join the DPP’s policy goals of economic decoupling from the PRC and support the policy’s trend, we should expect tensions to rise. Taking an economic angle to analyze Taiwanese public opinion is more important than ever, as the PRC may interpret such a policy shift as a tipping point.
Editor's Note: Technical and research support for this project was provided by DisinfoLab analysts Stephen Gerson and Max White.
