With 2010 slowly passing into the rearview mirror, the Diplomatic Courier has compiled a brief look back at the year that was—the good, the bad and the ugly—in international relations and diplomacy.
Rough Year for Europe
A series of security, economic and political threats confronted Europe in 2010, beginning with the meltdown of Greece’s economy. European leaders and the IMF swooped in to save the Greeks – and the Euro – at the last moment, eventually persuading Angela Merkel and other holdouts on the need for action. Speculation swirled around which country would fall next, and protests rocked the continent as France raised its once untouchable retirement age, Britain hiked tuition fees and minority Socialist governments in Spain and Portugal pushed through painful budgets to shore up their finances. Recently roaring Baltic economies contracted by double digits and girded for deep budget cuts. While scorched earth austerity helped turn around several economies, it was not enough for Ireland. Unable to sustain the fiscal burden of a complete collapse in its banking sector, the Celtic Tiger came cap-in-hand for outside assistance after strongly denying the possibility of a bailout.
While the Euro survived, rumors swirled that several European nations, possibly even Germany, were seriously considering leaving or radically reforming the currency union. The Euro looks safe for now – with tiny Estonia becoming the 17th Eurozone member on January 1 – but choppy waters lie ahead. Prospects remain unclear for when Poland and Hungary will eventually join the currency union.
Sweden came to grips with its first terrorist attack after a bomb in Stockholm injured two people. Similar attacks from Islamic extremists were foiled in Denmark, Germany and France. Extreme leftists and anarchists sent a series of letter bombs to foreign officials and embassies, further compounding this year’s continent-wide fear.
Change in Latin America
Just two decades ago, many Latin Americans lived under the boot of military dictators and oligarchs while chauvinistic and ultra-traditional social attitudes pervaded society. In 2010, democracy has become entrenched and attitudes are changing rapidly. Today, three countries are ruled by female leaders. The centrist Laura Chinchilla became Costa Rica’s first female President in May and in December Dilma Rouseff did the same in Brazil, succeeding her popular mentor Lula da Silva. Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner pushed cultural boundaries by successfully legalizing gay marriage in her country – certainly with ramifications for the evolving social attitudes of Argentina’s Catholic neighbor nations.
Tense relations between Venezuela and Colombia thawed somewhat, with Colombia’s staunchly pro-U.S. President Alvaro Uribe stepping aside in favor of his protégé Juan Manuel Santos. To the surprise of many, Santos and Hugo Chavez have gotten on rather well – Santos even referred to the Venezuelan leader as “my new best friend.” Even so, Venezuelan tensions with the United States increased as both countries closed out the year engaged in tit-for-tat reprisals over their respective ambassadors. One of the more interesting things to watch will be how Chavez deals with a much stronger congressional opposition. Having already granted himself extraordinary enabling powers, Chavez may be able to bypass the new Congress when it’s finally seated in early 2011.
Mixed Bag in the Middle East
Two-thousand and ten may be remembered as the year that Ankara finally emerged as a real player in the Middle East. Wedged between two continents and split between European and Islamic identities, Turkey has long envisioned itself as a bridge between West and East. This year, it began to flex its diplomatic muscles, fraying once-friendly relations with Israel, engaging closely with Iran and attempting to broker deals with the Taliban.
Israel played hardball with the Obama Administration over the settlements issue and appears to have won the point – for now. The U.S. has all but given up hope on an Israeli-Palestinian deal in the near term. But questions remain as to whether or not this is in Israel’s long-term strategic interests. Frustrated Palestinian officials have been lobbying hard in foreign capitals for unilateral diplomatic recognition. Buenos Aires has already signed on.
Things were looking up in Iraq after a successful parliamentary election that surprisingly vaulted a secularist coalition led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi into first place. The euphoria quickly died down as negotiations for a new cabinet dragged on for nine months. Behind the scenes, it was a fierce tug of war between the U.S. and Iran, Shiites and Sunnis, Kurds and Arabs and Allawi and Nouri al-Maliki, the outgoing prime minister. In the end, Maliki looks set to form a new government with Allawi on board. But roles, responsibilities and various posts have yet to be decided.
While all American troops are set to leave Iraq by next December, the U.S. presence in Afghanistan has ramped up with a troop surge reaching its zenith in September. With a new commander in General David Petraeus, a questionable partner in Hamid Karzai, the sudden death of Richard Holbrooke and an American presidential election set to take off next year, much remains in flux. Talk of coaxing the Taliban into political engagement has increased, both from Karzai and the United States.
Tensions High in Asia
The Korean peninsula was the center of much attention in 2010. Numerous threats and even attacks from the North – including the disputed sinking of a South Korean warship – led to severe tensions with its southern neighbor, the U.S., Japan, and even China. South Korea enhanced its military cooperation with the United States and Japan reaffirmed its commitment to a U.S.-Korean security orientation. Complicating matters is the opaque and likely drawn-out succession of Kim Jong Il by his son. While China is said to have signed off on the new leader, much of his background and thinking remain a mystery to those outside the reclusive Stalinist nation.
South Korea hit some high notes this year, hosting the G-20 summit in Seoul. While the summit itself was not particularly eventful, Korea and the U.S. did manage to finish up a free trade agreement likely to pass next year.
After less than a year on the job, Yukio Hatoyama stepped down as Japan’s prime minister. While successor Naoto Kan saw off a challenge to his newly minted premiership from a political baron, his government is deeply unpopular and could collapse soon. The ruling party has a tenuous hold on the upper house of parliament and the opposition could force Kan to call fresh elections next year.
Russia in the Game
Russia once again proved that it is a regional force. A revolution in Kyrgyzstan – likely with encouragement from Moscow – overturned a troublesome government and produced a far more pro-Russian result. Ukraine turned away from its Western orientation and Russia continued to pick apart a pro-European coalition in Moldova. Tensions with Belarus heated and cooled throughout the year, but in the end Moscow let “Europe’s last dictator” President Alexander Lukashenka stay in power by recognizing his overwhelming (and almost certainly fraudulent) re-election win in December.
President Obama successfully pushed a new U.S.-Russian nuclear arms treaty through the United States Senate, which he described as “the most significant arms control agreement in nearly two decades.” Some believe this action will help lead to the long-promised “reset” in relations between the two countries. For now, tensions between both nations remain pragmatic but mistrustful and strained.
Drip Drip of Wikileaks
A category all unto itself. The cables released by Wikileaks helped shine a spotlight into the dark corners of diplomacy. The cables gave us insight into the thinking of world leaders and proved what many already suspected – politicians often lie to their own people, dealmaking is a messy process, and there’s a reason why governments classify documents and conversations. The implications for American foreign policy are not yet known, but U.S. officials are likely to find it harder to coax foreign officials into unguarded conversations.
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Diplomacy in 2010: Year in Review
December 31, 2010
With 2010 slowly passing into the rearview mirror, the Diplomatic Courier has compiled a brief look back at the year that was—the good, the bad and the ugly—in international relations and diplomacy.
Rough Year for Europe
A series of security, economic and political threats confronted Europe in 2010, beginning with the meltdown of Greece’s economy. European leaders and the IMF swooped in to save the Greeks – and the Euro – at the last moment, eventually persuading Angela Merkel and other holdouts on the need for action. Speculation swirled around which country would fall next, and protests rocked the continent as France raised its once untouchable retirement age, Britain hiked tuition fees and minority Socialist governments in Spain and Portugal pushed through painful budgets to shore up their finances. Recently roaring Baltic economies contracted by double digits and girded for deep budget cuts. While scorched earth austerity helped turn around several economies, it was not enough for Ireland. Unable to sustain the fiscal burden of a complete collapse in its banking sector, the Celtic Tiger came cap-in-hand for outside assistance after strongly denying the possibility of a bailout.
While the Euro survived, rumors swirled that several European nations, possibly even Germany, were seriously considering leaving or radically reforming the currency union. The Euro looks safe for now – with tiny Estonia becoming the 17th Eurozone member on January 1 – but choppy waters lie ahead. Prospects remain unclear for when Poland and Hungary will eventually join the currency union.
Sweden came to grips with its first terrorist attack after a bomb in Stockholm injured two people. Similar attacks from Islamic extremists were foiled in Denmark, Germany and France. Extreme leftists and anarchists sent a series of letter bombs to foreign officials and embassies, further compounding this year’s continent-wide fear.
Change in Latin America
Just two decades ago, many Latin Americans lived under the boot of military dictators and oligarchs while chauvinistic and ultra-traditional social attitudes pervaded society. In 2010, democracy has become entrenched and attitudes are changing rapidly. Today, three countries are ruled by female leaders. The centrist Laura Chinchilla became Costa Rica’s first female President in May and in December Dilma Rouseff did the same in Brazil, succeeding her popular mentor Lula da Silva. Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner pushed cultural boundaries by successfully legalizing gay marriage in her country – certainly with ramifications for the evolving social attitudes of Argentina’s Catholic neighbor nations.
Tense relations between Venezuela and Colombia thawed somewhat, with Colombia’s staunchly pro-U.S. President Alvaro Uribe stepping aside in favor of his protégé Juan Manuel Santos. To the surprise of many, Santos and Hugo Chavez have gotten on rather well – Santos even referred to the Venezuelan leader as “my new best friend.” Even so, Venezuelan tensions with the United States increased as both countries closed out the year engaged in tit-for-tat reprisals over their respective ambassadors. One of the more interesting things to watch will be how Chavez deals with a much stronger congressional opposition. Having already granted himself extraordinary enabling powers, Chavez may be able to bypass the new Congress when it’s finally seated in early 2011.
Mixed Bag in the Middle East
Two-thousand and ten may be remembered as the year that Ankara finally emerged as a real player in the Middle East. Wedged between two continents and split between European and Islamic identities, Turkey has long envisioned itself as a bridge between West and East. This year, it began to flex its diplomatic muscles, fraying once-friendly relations with Israel, engaging closely with Iran and attempting to broker deals with the Taliban.
Israel played hardball with the Obama Administration over the settlements issue and appears to have won the point – for now. The U.S. has all but given up hope on an Israeli-Palestinian deal in the near term. But questions remain as to whether or not this is in Israel’s long-term strategic interests. Frustrated Palestinian officials have been lobbying hard in foreign capitals for unilateral diplomatic recognition. Buenos Aires has already signed on.
Things were looking up in Iraq after a successful parliamentary election that surprisingly vaulted a secularist coalition led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi into first place. The euphoria quickly died down as negotiations for a new cabinet dragged on for nine months. Behind the scenes, it was a fierce tug of war between the U.S. and Iran, Shiites and Sunnis, Kurds and Arabs and Allawi and Nouri al-Maliki, the outgoing prime minister. In the end, Maliki looks set to form a new government with Allawi on board. But roles, responsibilities and various posts have yet to be decided.
While all American troops are set to leave Iraq by next December, the U.S. presence in Afghanistan has ramped up with a troop surge reaching its zenith in September. With a new commander in General David Petraeus, a questionable partner in Hamid Karzai, the sudden death of Richard Holbrooke and an American presidential election set to take off next year, much remains in flux. Talk of coaxing the Taliban into political engagement has increased, both from Karzai and the United States.
Tensions High in Asia
The Korean peninsula was the center of much attention in 2010. Numerous threats and even attacks from the North – including the disputed sinking of a South Korean warship – led to severe tensions with its southern neighbor, the U.S., Japan, and even China. South Korea enhanced its military cooperation with the United States and Japan reaffirmed its commitment to a U.S.-Korean security orientation. Complicating matters is the opaque and likely drawn-out succession of Kim Jong Il by his son. While China is said to have signed off on the new leader, much of his background and thinking remain a mystery to those outside the reclusive Stalinist nation.
South Korea hit some high notes this year, hosting the G-20 summit in Seoul. While the summit itself was not particularly eventful, Korea and the U.S. did manage to finish up a free trade agreement likely to pass next year.
After less than a year on the job, Yukio Hatoyama stepped down as Japan’s prime minister. While successor Naoto Kan saw off a challenge to his newly minted premiership from a political baron, his government is deeply unpopular and could collapse soon. The ruling party has a tenuous hold on the upper house of parliament and the opposition could force Kan to call fresh elections next year.
Russia in the Game
Russia once again proved that it is a regional force. A revolution in Kyrgyzstan – likely with encouragement from Moscow – overturned a troublesome government and produced a far more pro-Russian result. Ukraine turned away from its Western orientation and Russia continued to pick apart a pro-European coalition in Moldova. Tensions with Belarus heated and cooled throughout the year, but in the end Moscow let “Europe’s last dictator” President Alexander Lukashenka stay in power by recognizing his overwhelming (and almost certainly fraudulent) re-election win in December.
President Obama successfully pushed a new U.S.-Russian nuclear arms treaty through the United States Senate, which he described as “the most significant arms control agreement in nearly two decades.” Some believe this action will help lead to the long-promised “reset” in relations between the two countries. For now, tensions between both nations remain pragmatic but mistrustful and strained.
Drip Drip of Wikileaks
A category all unto itself. The cables released by Wikileaks helped shine a spotlight into the dark corners of diplomacy. The cables gave us insight into the thinking of world leaders and proved what many already suspected – politicians often lie to their own people, dealmaking is a messy process, and there’s a reason why governments classify documents and conversations. The implications for American foreign policy are not yet known, but U.S. officials are likely to find it harder to coax foreign officials into unguarded conversations.
