lobal conflict and terrorist activity are on the rise, and the convergence of two trends is particularly troubling: the evolution of online extremist culture and the rise of lone actors.
We know there are many factors that drive people to engage in terrorism, yet we still don’t understand when or why some factors matter more than others, despite decades of research. But we do know that extremism flourishes in times of instability and conflict. Since 2007, 98% of terrorism deaths have occurred in countries involved in conflict. That’s a bad sign; conflicts have been increasing in both length and severity, while social media has made it easier for terrorists to leverage global conflicts to galvanize radicalization and engage donors. As a result, conflicts from Syria and the Sahel to Ukraine, Pakistan, and Gaza provide ample grievances that terrorists of all ideologies can weaponize and spin for diverse stakeholders. The Islamic State and its affiliates exemplify how terrorists can tap into local grievances and use sophisticated digital propaganda to radicalize a global network of supporters and fighters.
Attracting a wide audience has always been a core goal of terrorism, but today globalization and technological advancements have dramatically changed the way that terrorists socialize ideas, form (virtual) communities, and inspire action. New technologies such as social media and encrypted apps have lowered the barriers to entry, rendered geographic borders irrelevant, and reduced the relevance of conventional terrorist groups and ideologies. Of the 113 attacks in North America from 2007 to 2023, only 15 were linked to known terrorist groups. Lone actors are increasingly carrying out attacks based on a hodgepodge of ideas that they cherry–pick while surfing online for inspiration and do-it-yourself resources until they decide to take violent action against their preferred local targets. The increase in “salad bar ideology” has experts scrambling to create new terrorism typologies. Meanwhile, lone actor attacks are increasing, require minimal resources, have an outsized psychological impact, and are extremely challenging to deter.
Social media has played a pivotal role in the rise and success of lone actors. The online ecosystem is saturated with extremist content, memes mainstream violent ideologies and reach new audiences (especially women and youth), and search algorithms make it easier for violent extremists from around the globe to find content that aligns with their needs. The net results are shortening “flash–to–bang” timelines and tactical appropriation by ideologically diverse extremist groups. Lone actors have become adept at exploiting digital platforms to prepare for violence, avoid detection, and inspire copycats. In 1984, KKK and Aryan Nations leader Louis Beam declared “The computer offers, to those who become proficient in its use, power undreamed of by the rulers of the past.” Although the technologies of his time were insufficient to make Beam’s strategy of “leaderless resistance” a reality, today’s terrorists may unfortunately have the right tools at their disposal.
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Digitalization, globalization enabling “lone wolf” terrorism
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay.
May 22, 2024
Global conflict and terrorist activity are on the rise. The evolution of online extremist culture and the rise of lone actors emerges amid globalization and technological advancements, writes Alexia D’Arco.
G
lobal conflict and terrorist activity are on the rise, and the convergence of two trends is particularly troubling: the evolution of online extremist culture and the rise of lone actors.
We know there are many factors that drive people to engage in terrorism, yet we still don’t understand when or why some factors matter more than others, despite decades of research. But we do know that extremism flourishes in times of instability and conflict. Since 2007, 98% of terrorism deaths have occurred in countries involved in conflict. That’s a bad sign; conflicts have been increasing in both length and severity, while social media has made it easier for terrorists to leverage global conflicts to galvanize radicalization and engage donors. As a result, conflicts from Syria and the Sahel to Ukraine, Pakistan, and Gaza provide ample grievances that terrorists of all ideologies can weaponize and spin for diverse stakeholders. The Islamic State and its affiliates exemplify how terrorists can tap into local grievances and use sophisticated digital propaganda to radicalize a global network of supporters and fighters.
Attracting a wide audience has always been a core goal of terrorism, but today globalization and technological advancements have dramatically changed the way that terrorists socialize ideas, form (virtual) communities, and inspire action. New technologies such as social media and encrypted apps have lowered the barriers to entry, rendered geographic borders irrelevant, and reduced the relevance of conventional terrorist groups and ideologies. Of the 113 attacks in North America from 2007 to 2023, only 15 were linked to known terrorist groups. Lone actors are increasingly carrying out attacks based on a hodgepodge of ideas that they cherry–pick while surfing online for inspiration and do-it-yourself resources until they decide to take violent action against their preferred local targets. The increase in “salad bar ideology” has experts scrambling to create new terrorism typologies. Meanwhile, lone actor attacks are increasing, require minimal resources, have an outsized psychological impact, and are extremely challenging to deter.
Social media has played a pivotal role in the rise and success of lone actors. The online ecosystem is saturated with extremist content, memes mainstream violent ideologies and reach new audiences (especially women and youth), and search algorithms make it easier for violent extremists from around the globe to find content that aligns with their needs. The net results are shortening “flash–to–bang” timelines and tactical appropriation by ideologically diverse extremist groups. Lone actors have become adept at exploiting digital platforms to prepare for violence, avoid detection, and inspire copycats. In 1984, KKK and Aryan Nations leader Louis Beam declared “The computer offers, to those who become proficient in its use, power undreamed of by the rulers of the past.” Although the technologies of his time were insufficient to make Beam’s strategy of “leaderless resistance” a reality, today’s terrorists may unfortunately have the right tools at their disposal.
