ew would contest that AI is a significant disrupter to the future of work, prompting cheers for the potential drive to productivity and economic growth and fears for job displacement and exacerbation of inequality. Some estimate labor productivity gains and spending could drive $7 trillion in global GDP growth. Yet, as we have seen in the past through industrial revolutions and the onset of information and communications technology and digital transformation, the ability to mitigate or manage risk while maximizing rewards relies to a large extent on striking the right balance in developing and deploying both technology and human capital. In the past, a failure to invest in or create access to either undermines and widens gaps in economic potential. Failure to close digital skill gaps could cost nearly $12 trillion in GDP to G20 countries alone.
It is also important to consider the interdependence of other macro trends with advancing AI, including the link between digital and demographic dividends to growth. In Africa, for example, the AI market is expected to expand rapidly, by 20% a year. At the same time, 70% of the continent’s population is under the age of 30 and many point to this reservoir of youth consumers and workers—up to 12 million per year—as the potential to drive innovation and growth.
Digital skills on the continent, however, are lacking, scoring between 1.8 and 5 on the Digital Skills Gap Index, well below the global average of 6. To take advantage of this clear opportunity, the public and private sectors need to invest in infrastructure, education, and training, including in specific technical skills necessary for AI jobs and complementarity in work: machine learning, cloud computing, data science, cyber security. While automation and AI may put some jobs at risk, history shows that new technology creates new functions requiring technology-human interfaces, driving employment and often raising wages for higher-skill work. As many as 60% of jobs today did not exist in 1940. Promising interventions include setting national digital skills and infrastructure policies, digital education integration into secondary and technical and vocational education and training curricula as well as standalone modular “bootcamp” style training, and workplace-based up- or re-skilling initiatives, experiential, and applied learning experiences. Alongside programs and policy, increased research and evaluation on what works to promote equitable and inclusive access to human and technological capital for positive AI adoption shouldn’t be overlooked.
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AI Can Maximize the Demographic, Digital Dividend
Photo by Lucas Lenzi on Unsplash
January 16, 2024
AI will disrupt the future of work. Mitigating risk and maximizing rewards by developing and deploying both technology and human capital could bring great gains, while failing to close the digital skills gap could cost nearly $12 trillion to G20 countries alone, writes Dr. Nicole Goldin.
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ew would contest that AI is a significant disrupter to the future of work, prompting cheers for the potential drive to productivity and economic growth and fears for job displacement and exacerbation of inequality. Some estimate labor productivity gains and spending could drive $7 trillion in global GDP growth. Yet, as we have seen in the past through industrial revolutions and the onset of information and communications technology and digital transformation, the ability to mitigate or manage risk while maximizing rewards relies to a large extent on striking the right balance in developing and deploying both technology and human capital. In the past, a failure to invest in or create access to either undermines and widens gaps in economic potential. Failure to close digital skill gaps could cost nearly $12 trillion in GDP to G20 countries alone.
It is also important to consider the interdependence of other macro trends with advancing AI, including the link between digital and demographic dividends to growth. In Africa, for example, the AI market is expected to expand rapidly, by 20% a year. At the same time, 70% of the continent’s population is under the age of 30 and many point to this reservoir of youth consumers and workers—up to 12 million per year—as the potential to drive innovation and growth.
Digital skills on the continent, however, are lacking, scoring between 1.8 and 5 on the Digital Skills Gap Index, well below the global average of 6. To take advantage of this clear opportunity, the public and private sectors need to invest in infrastructure, education, and training, including in specific technical skills necessary for AI jobs and complementarity in work: machine learning, cloud computing, data science, cyber security. While automation and AI may put some jobs at risk, history shows that new technology creates new functions requiring technology-human interfaces, driving employment and often raising wages for higher-skill work. As many as 60% of jobs today did not exist in 1940. Promising interventions include setting national digital skills and infrastructure policies, digital education integration into secondary and technical and vocational education and training curricula as well as standalone modular “bootcamp” style training, and workplace-based up- or re-skilling initiatives, experiential, and applied learning experiences. Alongside programs and policy, increased research and evaluation on what works to promote equitable and inclusive access to human and technological capital for positive AI adoption shouldn’t be overlooked.
