n 7 September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a famous speech at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University to inaugurate the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This maxi infrastructure project aimed to create new economic links between China and its partners in Asia, South America, and Africa. Over the years, the BRI embraced several dimensions like trade, infrastructures, diplomacy, and culture, and its goals have changed significantly.
Its vagueness is a strength as well as a weakness. On the one hand, it makes it difficult to assess the achievements of the Chinese leadership because of its continuous involvement with the regime's propaganda. On the other hand, the BRI is an empty concept—combining several projects that lack effective policy coordination. Its major achievement was strengthening economic ties with the Middle East, even if it lost its diplomatic scale over the years.
BRI’s Impact on the Energy Landscape
The BRI in the Middle East focused on some specific areas. The most important of which is energy. Between 2014 and 2019, China's state-owned enterprises invested 58% of their total $21.6 billion in the region towards expensive energy-related projects, especially in Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Over the last decade, Beijing strengthened its energy security architecture by signing several deals with the region's oil companies to sustain its imports, which accounted for 73% of crude oil and 42% of natural gas consumption in 2021.
BRI’s Impact on Digital Infrastructure
China's interest in digital investments has grown faster. As of 2022, Beijing has funded 206 digital projects compared to 64 traditional physical infrastructures. Among the others, Beijing has focused on telecommunications, 5g connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems. David O. Shullman, senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, said, "We'll get into how China's trying to transform the BRI into a more digital-focused, less infrastructure-heavy initiative. It is part of this broader conception of what China offers—particularly to the developing world—about economic development and connectivity."
BRI’s Impact on Trade
Lastly, China increased its role in Middle Eastern trade and economic areas, such as the Suez Canal—which transits more than 10% of global trade—or the China-Pakistan economic corridor. In the former, Beijing has invested several billion dollars to build a regional trade zone or implement industrial and energy-related projects.
BRI’s Impact on Diplomacy
In October 2023, China hosted the 3rd Belt and Road Forum, attended by 23 heads of state, a lower number than the 37 in the previous 2019 edition. Except for Russia and Egypt, no other leaders with significant influence in the Middle East were present, partly due to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas as well as there being less of a need to show political support for the initiative.
China's diplomatic position in the Middle East has evolved since the launch of the BRI ten years ago. In March 2023, for example, China brokered a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize their bilateral relations. Also, Beijing succeeded in bringing some regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates into the BRICS.
However, Beijing's role in the region remains marginal compared to that of Russia and the United States. Regarding the Israel-Hamas war, Jonathan Fulton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC, "China is not a serious actor on this issue. Talking to people around the region, nobody expects China to contribute to the solution.
A Final Evaluation
According to the data collected by IISS China Connects, most of the BRI projects have been completed or are in an advanced state. This positive trend for Beijing shows that the initiative has gathered support from Middle Eastern governments, even if some projects—such as the Hamrawein Coal-Fired Plant in Pakistan—were halted or canceled due to over-capacity, economic sustainability, or pollution concerns. Also, Chinese foreign investments in the Middle East have slowed down between 2019 and 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic and new domestic policies to control speculative capital outflows contributed to this decline.
Overall, it is undeniable that the Chinese footprint in the Middle East has improved since its inauguration. Beijing's interest in digital infrastructures and connectivity is growing faster, as demonstrated by the efforts to build the 5g infrastructure in the Gulf. The countries in the region are also pushing for economic modernization and diversification and see Beijing as a perfect partner due to its know-how, economic capabilities, and disregard for human rights.
The BRI has changed over the past few years, scaling back the bombastic claims with which it was announced at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University but proving remarkably resilient to changes in the international system. China's expansion strategy has continued vigorously from an economic perspective, renouncing its more diplomatic dimension that has been so controversial, particularly in the West. Beijing is partly re-embracing the pragmatic approach promoted by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping after 1978, summarized in his slogan, "Hide your strength, bide your time.” In other words, avoid garnering attention and wait for the right time to act.
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From Energy to Diplomacy: A Decade of Belt and Road in the Middle East
Masjid al Nabawi mosque, in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major center for Chinese investment on its Belt and Road Initiative. Image by ekrem from Pixabay
December 17, 2023
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has had, over the past decade, a profound impact on the political, cultural, and economic landscapes of countries the world over. While much of the BRI is an empty concept, BRI investments have in many ways transformed the Middle East, writes Elia Preto Martini
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n 7 September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a famous speech at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University to inaugurate the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This maxi infrastructure project aimed to create new economic links between China and its partners in Asia, South America, and Africa. Over the years, the BRI embraced several dimensions like trade, infrastructures, diplomacy, and culture, and its goals have changed significantly.
Its vagueness is a strength as well as a weakness. On the one hand, it makes it difficult to assess the achievements of the Chinese leadership because of its continuous involvement with the regime's propaganda. On the other hand, the BRI is an empty concept—combining several projects that lack effective policy coordination. Its major achievement was strengthening economic ties with the Middle East, even if it lost its diplomatic scale over the years.
BRI’s Impact on the Energy Landscape
The BRI in the Middle East focused on some specific areas. The most important of which is energy. Between 2014 and 2019, China's state-owned enterprises invested 58% of their total $21.6 billion in the region towards expensive energy-related projects, especially in Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Over the last decade, Beijing strengthened its energy security architecture by signing several deals with the region's oil companies to sustain its imports, which accounted for 73% of crude oil and 42% of natural gas consumption in 2021.
BRI’s Impact on Digital Infrastructure
China's interest in digital investments has grown faster. As of 2022, Beijing has funded 206 digital projects compared to 64 traditional physical infrastructures. Among the others, Beijing has focused on telecommunications, 5g connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems. David O. Shullman, senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, said, "We'll get into how China's trying to transform the BRI into a more digital-focused, less infrastructure-heavy initiative. It is part of this broader conception of what China offers—particularly to the developing world—about economic development and connectivity."
BRI’s Impact on Trade
Lastly, China increased its role in Middle Eastern trade and economic areas, such as the Suez Canal—which transits more than 10% of global trade—or the China-Pakistan economic corridor. In the former, Beijing has invested several billion dollars to build a regional trade zone or implement industrial and energy-related projects.
BRI’s Impact on Diplomacy
In October 2023, China hosted the 3rd Belt and Road Forum, attended by 23 heads of state, a lower number than the 37 in the previous 2019 edition. Except for Russia and Egypt, no other leaders with significant influence in the Middle East were present, partly due to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas as well as there being less of a need to show political support for the initiative.
China's diplomatic position in the Middle East has evolved since the launch of the BRI ten years ago. In March 2023, for example, China brokered a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize their bilateral relations. Also, Beijing succeeded in bringing some regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates into the BRICS.
However, Beijing's role in the region remains marginal compared to that of Russia and the United States. Regarding the Israel-Hamas war, Jonathan Fulton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC, "China is not a serious actor on this issue. Talking to people around the region, nobody expects China to contribute to the solution.
A Final Evaluation
According to the data collected by IISS China Connects, most of the BRI projects have been completed or are in an advanced state. This positive trend for Beijing shows that the initiative has gathered support from Middle Eastern governments, even if some projects—such as the Hamrawein Coal-Fired Plant in Pakistan—were halted or canceled due to over-capacity, economic sustainability, or pollution concerns. Also, Chinese foreign investments in the Middle East have slowed down between 2019 and 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic and new domestic policies to control speculative capital outflows contributed to this decline.
Overall, it is undeniable that the Chinese footprint in the Middle East has improved since its inauguration. Beijing's interest in digital infrastructures and connectivity is growing faster, as demonstrated by the efforts to build the 5g infrastructure in the Gulf. The countries in the region are also pushing for economic modernization and diversification and see Beijing as a perfect partner due to its know-how, economic capabilities, and disregard for human rights.
The BRI has changed over the past few years, scaling back the bombastic claims with which it was announced at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University but proving remarkably resilient to changes in the international system. China's expansion strategy has continued vigorously from an economic perspective, renouncing its more diplomatic dimension that has been so controversial, particularly in the West. Beijing is partly re-embracing the pragmatic approach promoted by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping after 1978, summarized in his slogan, "Hide your strength, bide your time.” In other words, avoid garnering attention and wait for the right time to act.
