n April 30, Santiago Peña of the center-right Colorado Party won the Paraguayan elections with 43% of the vote, providing political continuity in a region known for its anti-establishment persuasion. The Colorado Party also achieved notable success in gubernatorial and congressional races—winning 15 out of the 17 gubernatorial races and securing a majority in both chambers of Congress.
This is the first time in the last three years that an incumbent party has been reelected in Latin America. When Peña is sworn in on August 15, the Colorado Party will have been in power for 70 years, with the exception of the five years following an electoral win by the Partido Liberal Radical Autentico (PLRA) in 2008. This is also the second time in a row that Paraguay’s president won without receiving the majority of the vote.
Key electoral issues included the economy, jobs, security, corruption, and Paraguay’s relationship with Taiwan. Peña, who supports maintaining Paraguay's diplomatic relations with Taiwan, faced off against Efraín Alegre from the PLRA center-left/right Concertación opposition coalition—who favors a closer relationship with China—and Paraguayo "Payo" Cubas of the National Crusade Party—who ran on an anti-establishment platform. While the last weeks of the elections were a close race between Peña and Alegre, who has now run for the presidency three times, the polls again had it wrong.
Paraguay’s Challenges
Unfortunately, after the election results were announced, protests broke out in Asunción and other cities, led by supporters of Paraguayo Cubas, the third-place candidate. Accusing the electoral authorities of fraud, protesters contested the election results and engaged in violent clashes with police outside the electoral court in Asunción. They defaced billboards supporting the winning candidate Santiago Peña and erected roadblocks of burning tires. Although some blockades have been removed, tensions remain high, with Cubas urging citizens to resist what he called “usurpers”. The Organization of American States (OAS) has released a report certifying the election and stating that there was no fraud.
Peña will face numerous challenges upon assuming office, and tackling corruption will be chief among the issues he’ll need to address. Corruption has fueled a surge in organized crime in Paraguay, and its porous borders with Argentina and Brazil has become a haven for the transit of transnational criminal organizations. His ability to deal with the issue effectively could also be compromised by former President and current head of the Colorado Party, Horacio Cartes, and current Vice President Hugo Velasquez, both of whom have been blacklisted by the United States over corruption allegations.
Paraguay's membership in the regional trading bloc Mercosur will also loom large come inauguration day. Paraguay is the only member who recognizes Taiwan, while other partner countries like Uruguay and Brazil are pursuing closer ties with China. How Peña navigates those waters will be a true sign of his leadership and commitment to Taiwan. Peña is unlikely to take a confrontational approach toward Brazil's left-leaning government and risk disrupting its beneficial trade relationship with its much larger neighbor.
The Future of Paraguay-U.S. Relations
The election also offers an opportunity for the U.S. and Paraguay to revisit shared interests such as trade, strengthening democracy, transparency, and building security cooperation. The United States-Paraguay ties are strong, with important bilateral trade relationships and cooperation on counternarcotics, combating money laundering, trafficking in persons, and other illicit cross-border activities. Paraguay has been a staunch supporter of the United States' democracy agenda, supporting the (now former) interim government in Venezuela and condemning the Cuban and Nicaraguan dictatorial regimes.
While it remains to be seen what approach Peña will take in the region, he has stated that he would re-engage with Venezuela and work with the Maduro regime. Although he claims that he would speak out against human rights violations and advocate for free and fair elections, he also believes in maintaining dialogue. This is a risky position because it can legitimize the Maduro regime and further embolden him, which could lead to more human rights violations and undermine efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela.
During his campaign, Efraín Alegre, the opposition candidate, emphasized the importance of opening up Paraguay's export market to China, specifically for beef. Paraguay has also joined the few countries in the region that have halted exports to Russia, as a measure to increase competitiveness and counterbalance Chinese and authoritarian influence in the region. The recertification of Paraguay's beef products by the U.S. would allow access to the U.S. market and demonstrate support for its allies.
In the interest of furthering these ties, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy has introduced The Americas Act, a bill that aims to expand the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) to other countries in the region—including Paraguay—as a counterweight to Chinese influence. If signed into law, the measure could bring significant changes in Western Hemisphere trade, enabling governments to establish closer ties with the United States at a time when countering authoritarian influence is a key security priority for the U.S. and other democracies.
The outcome of the Paraguayan elections, while an outlier in regional trends, could impact the direction of electoral campaigns and future policies in other countries in the region as they prepare for their own elections this year. The geopolitical implications of continued recognition of Taiwan looms large. In Guatemala’s forthcoming election, the current administration has remained steadfast in its support, but for how long. While Argentina has also seen the rise of third-party populist disruptors such as Javier Milei. With so many transnational issues at stake, the success or failure of the new government could have reverberations far beyond our hemisphere.
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What to Expect from Paraguay’s New Government
Night view of Asunción, Paraguay. Photo by Anton Lukin on Unsplash
May 26, 2023
Paraguay's Colorado Party retained control of the government in recent elections, bucking recent rends of incumbent party turnover in Latin America. This represents a key opportunity for the U.S. and Paraguay to strengthen already robust relations, write IRI's Antonio Garrastazu and Humberto Collado
O
n April 30, Santiago Peña of the center-right Colorado Party won the Paraguayan elections with 43% of the vote, providing political continuity in a region known for its anti-establishment persuasion. The Colorado Party also achieved notable success in gubernatorial and congressional races—winning 15 out of the 17 gubernatorial races and securing a majority in both chambers of Congress.
This is the first time in the last three years that an incumbent party has been reelected in Latin America. When Peña is sworn in on August 15, the Colorado Party will have been in power for 70 years, with the exception of the five years following an electoral win by the Partido Liberal Radical Autentico (PLRA) in 2008. This is also the second time in a row that Paraguay’s president won without receiving the majority of the vote.
Key electoral issues included the economy, jobs, security, corruption, and Paraguay’s relationship with Taiwan. Peña, who supports maintaining Paraguay's diplomatic relations with Taiwan, faced off against Efraín Alegre from the PLRA center-left/right Concertación opposition coalition—who favors a closer relationship with China—and Paraguayo "Payo" Cubas of the National Crusade Party—who ran on an anti-establishment platform. While the last weeks of the elections were a close race between Peña and Alegre, who has now run for the presidency three times, the polls again had it wrong.
Paraguay’s Challenges
Unfortunately, after the election results were announced, protests broke out in Asunción and other cities, led by supporters of Paraguayo Cubas, the third-place candidate. Accusing the electoral authorities of fraud, protesters contested the election results and engaged in violent clashes with police outside the electoral court in Asunción. They defaced billboards supporting the winning candidate Santiago Peña and erected roadblocks of burning tires. Although some blockades have been removed, tensions remain high, with Cubas urging citizens to resist what he called “usurpers”. The Organization of American States (OAS) has released a report certifying the election and stating that there was no fraud.
Peña will face numerous challenges upon assuming office, and tackling corruption will be chief among the issues he’ll need to address. Corruption has fueled a surge in organized crime in Paraguay, and its porous borders with Argentina and Brazil has become a haven for the transit of transnational criminal organizations. His ability to deal with the issue effectively could also be compromised by former President and current head of the Colorado Party, Horacio Cartes, and current Vice President Hugo Velasquez, both of whom have been blacklisted by the United States over corruption allegations.
Paraguay's membership in the regional trading bloc Mercosur will also loom large come inauguration day. Paraguay is the only member who recognizes Taiwan, while other partner countries like Uruguay and Brazil are pursuing closer ties with China. How Peña navigates those waters will be a true sign of his leadership and commitment to Taiwan. Peña is unlikely to take a confrontational approach toward Brazil's left-leaning government and risk disrupting its beneficial trade relationship with its much larger neighbor.
The Future of Paraguay-U.S. Relations
The election also offers an opportunity for the U.S. and Paraguay to revisit shared interests such as trade, strengthening democracy, transparency, and building security cooperation. The United States-Paraguay ties are strong, with important bilateral trade relationships and cooperation on counternarcotics, combating money laundering, trafficking in persons, and other illicit cross-border activities. Paraguay has been a staunch supporter of the United States' democracy agenda, supporting the (now former) interim government in Venezuela and condemning the Cuban and Nicaraguan dictatorial regimes.
While it remains to be seen what approach Peña will take in the region, he has stated that he would re-engage with Venezuela and work with the Maduro regime. Although he claims that he would speak out against human rights violations and advocate for free and fair elections, he also believes in maintaining dialogue. This is a risky position because it can legitimize the Maduro regime and further embolden him, which could lead to more human rights violations and undermine efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela.
During his campaign, Efraín Alegre, the opposition candidate, emphasized the importance of opening up Paraguay's export market to China, specifically for beef. Paraguay has also joined the few countries in the region that have halted exports to Russia, as a measure to increase competitiveness and counterbalance Chinese and authoritarian influence in the region. The recertification of Paraguay's beef products by the U.S. would allow access to the U.S. market and demonstrate support for its allies.
In the interest of furthering these ties, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy has introduced The Americas Act, a bill that aims to expand the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) to other countries in the region—including Paraguay—as a counterweight to Chinese influence. If signed into law, the measure could bring significant changes in Western Hemisphere trade, enabling governments to establish closer ties with the United States at a time when countering authoritarian influence is a key security priority for the U.S. and other democracies.
The outcome of the Paraguayan elections, while an outlier in regional trends, could impact the direction of electoral campaigns and future policies in other countries in the region as they prepare for their own elections this year. The geopolitical implications of continued recognition of Taiwan looms large. In Guatemala’s forthcoming election, the current administration has remained steadfast in its support, but for how long. While Argentina has also seen the rise of third-party populist disruptors such as Javier Milei. With so many transnational issues at stake, the success or failure of the new government could have reverberations far beyond our hemisphere.
