tarting out on a personal note—I love talking about World in 2050. It’s one of the things that comes along with doing something professionally that just clicks with you on a deeper level. In those conversations, there’s one question that I get asked every…single…time.
“Wait, what’s a megatrend?”
There’s a simple answer; megatrends are trends which are driving change on a global scale with big implications for the future. Pretty straightforward. The simple explanation doesn’t quite do enough to explain what in the world we mean with our megatrends, though.
What Makes a W2050 Megatrend Different?
At W2050, we have for a long time categorized dramatic forces of innovation, disruption, and change by themes which we call megatrends. For us a megatrend traditionally has been a set of closely related pressures—whether brought about by innovation, demographics, shifting social norms, or reactions to changes in the natural world—that are having or will soon have an outsized impact on how we live life. Rather than a narrowly defined trend which will have a big impact in a well-defined sector of a market or segment of society, we’ve tried to identify our megatrends thematically to encompass several interrelated forces of dramatic change.
Over the first ten years of its life, W2050 conducted research, expert convenings, and held innovation challenges for entrepreneurs around seven or eight megatrends.
With the (re)launch of W2050, we decided to that seven or eight megatrends, each with a fluctuating number of what we call “sub-trends” (though make no mistake, each of these could be rightly defined as a megatrend in popular usage) is just too nebulous. So we tightened our focus and reimagined five key megatrends (each consisting of 4-5 tightly focused and interrelated sub-trends) that we see as the most disruptive to our lives and futures—but which we also see as full of hope and potential. Ultimately, W2050 is a future-focused organization that is determined to help bring the best future possible to fruition. Our five megatrends—which you can also read about here—are not only themes for research clusters. They are also a roadmap of what we need to focus on most intensively to help the future arrive well. Our megatrends don’t encompass all the world’s problems or even most of them, but we believe they cover the most pressing challenges the world will face in the coming decades.
Here they are.
Exponential technologies are radically reshaping our world.
Digitalization. AI. The Internet of Things. Blockchain. Big data. We’re all aware that the pace of technological innovation is breathtaking. More than ever, the world is tech driven and that is a trend which is accelerating. Exponential technologies are powerful tools – they help us understand and change our world for the better. They also disrupt old ways of doing things and they introduce new concerns over privacy, safety, security, and equality of access.
Disruption from climate change and the energy transition has only just begun.
COP26 felt, if not like a watershed moment, at least like we all had finally agreed to take climate change seriously with governments reaching an unprecedented though disappointing climate deal and the private sector getting loud about their commitment to net-zero. Yet even if we do everything right (and we won’t) our job markets, financial markets, and access to cheap energy will be impacted by the energy transition while actual changes to climate and extreme weather events will need to be mitigated.
The workplace cares less about education and more about skills.
The way we used to think about education and its role in preparing us for the workplace is out of favor. We know that most employers now care more about skills than where you went to school. What we don’t know is how to help tomorrow’s employees identify what skills they need, what they already have, and where to get what they need and don’t have. The transition to a skill-focus and away from expensive schooling could mean a more inclusive workplace but we must act conscientiously to get there.
Societal distrust and fragmentation are surging.
Since the 1990s there has been a great deal of progress socially – we see the world as more interconnected and we’ve made major strides toward gender, ethnic, and LGBTQ+ equity. Yet over the same period, social polarization has paradoxically increased. With misinformation, populism, and anti-intellectualism on the rise, this problem isn’t going away on its own. Our hard-fought gains are under threat at a time when we more urgently need to work together than ever.
Democratic and governance institutions are under pressure.
Amid the previous four megatrends, public trust in formal institutions at the local, national, and international level that have been integral to so much (if imperfect) progress in the previous decades is at an all-time low. This distrust threatens our democracies – whether established or fledgling – and our ability to practice governance at all levels. To an extent, the private sector has stepped up its governance efforts – but our world faces existential challenges and robust governance institutions will be critical to helping the future arrive well.
a global affairs media network
What in the World (in 2050) is a Megatrend?
Image via Adobe Stock.
February 4, 2022
The concept of a "megatrend" has been utilized to analyze forces of change for some time, but World in 2050 uses them somewhat differently—and with clear intent. W2050 Executive Director Shane Szarkowski explains what we mean by "megatrend," and why it matters.
S
tarting out on a personal note—I love talking about World in 2050. It’s one of the things that comes along with doing something professionally that just clicks with you on a deeper level. In those conversations, there’s one question that I get asked every…single…time.
“Wait, what’s a megatrend?”
There’s a simple answer; megatrends are trends which are driving change on a global scale with big implications for the future. Pretty straightforward. The simple explanation doesn’t quite do enough to explain what in the world we mean with our megatrends, though.
What Makes a W2050 Megatrend Different?
At W2050, we have for a long time categorized dramatic forces of innovation, disruption, and change by themes which we call megatrends. For us a megatrend traditionally has been a set of closely related pressures—whether brought about by innovation, demographics, shifting social norms, or reactions to changes in the natural world—that are having or will soon have an outsized impact on how we live life. Rather than a narrowly defined trend which will have a big impact in a well-defined sector of a market or segment of society, we’ve tried to identify our megatrends thematically to encompass several interrelated forces of dramatic change.
Over the first ten years of its life, W2050 conducted research, expert convenings, and held innovation challenges for entrepreneurs around seven or eight megatrends.
With the (re)launch of W2050, we decided to that seven or eight megatrends, each with a fluctuating number of what we call “sub-trends” (though make no mistake, each of these could be rightly defined as a megatrend in popular usage) is just too nebulous. So we tightened our focus and reimagined five key megatrends (each consisting of 4-5 tightly focused and interrelated sub-trends) that we see as the most disruptive to our lives and futures—but which we also see as full of hope and potential. Ultimately, W2050 is a future-focused organization that is determined to help bring the best future possible to fruition. Our five megatrends—which you can also read about here—are not only themes for research clusters. They are also a roadmap of what we need to focus on most intensively to help the future arrive well. Our megatrends don’t encompass all the world’s problems or even most of them, but we believe they cover the most pressing challenges the world will face in the coming decades.
Here they are.
Exponential technologies are radically reshaping our world.
Digitalization. AI. The Internet of Things. Blockchain. Big data. We’re all aware that the pace of technological innovation is breathtaking. More than ever, the world is tech driven and that is a trend which is accelerating. Exponential technologies are powerful tools – they help us understand and change our world for the better. They also disrupt old ways of doing things and they introduce new concerns over privacy, safety, security, and equality of access.
Disruption from climate change and the energy transition has only just begun.
COP26 felt, if not like a watershed moment, at least like we all had finally agreed to take climate change seriously with governments reaching an unprecedented though disappointing climate deal and the private sector getting loud about their commitment to net-zero. Yet even if we do everything right (and we won’t) our job markets, financial markets, and access to cheap energy will be impacted by the energy transition while actual changes to climate and extreme weather events will need to be mitigated.
The workplace cares less about education and more about skills.
The way we used to think about education and its role in preparing us for the workplace is out of favor. We know that most employers now care more about skills than where you went to school. What we don’t know is how to help tomorrow’s employees identify what skills they need, what they already have, and where to get what they need and don’t have. The transition to a skill-focus and away from expensive schooling could mean a more inclusive workplace but we must act conscientiously to get there.
Societal distrust and fragmentation are surging.
Since the 1990s there has been a great deal of progress socially – we see the world as more interconnected and we’ve made major strides toward gender, ethnic, and LGBTQ+ equity. Yet over the same period, social polarization has paradoxically increased. With misinformation, populism, and anti-intellectualism on the rise, this problem isn’t going away on its own. Our hard-fought gains are under threat at a time when we more urgently need to work together than ever.
Democratic and governance institutions are under pressure.
Amid the previous four megatrends, public trust in formal institutions at the local, national, and international level that have been integral to so much (if imperfect) progress in the previous decades is at an all-time low. This distrust threatens our democracies – whether established or fledgling – and our ability to practice governance at all levels. To an extent, the private sector has stepped up its governance efforts – but our world faces existential challenges and robust governance institutions will be critical to helping the future arrive well.
