Citizens went to the polls on August 11th in what was Turkey’s first-ever direct election for the presidency. Securing 51.8 percent of the vote, the present prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has succeeded in staking his place in history as the first popularly elected president of the Republic of Turkey. Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, the former head of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and a joint candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), gained nearly 38.5 percent of the vote, with Selahattin Demirtaş, the co-chair of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), finishing third at 9.8 percent.
Opinion polls had predicted that if turnout was below 80 percent, Erdoğan would win up to 55 percent of the vote and a run-off scheduled on August 24th would be unnecessary. While 55 percent was unobtainable for Erdoğan, the turnout rate of 73 percent still weighed in his favor, ensuring no runoff will be needed.
In his victory speech, President-elect Erdoğan, who has led Turkey for more than a decade as prime minister and who will hold the presidency for at least five years, called on the country to overcome old divisions while also making clear his intention to forge an executive-style presidency. In his speech, he stated, “Today is the day we lift mental barriers, rid ourselves of old prejudices, and peel away fears imposed from the outside. Today is the day we open the doors to a new beginning, the day we establish a new Turkey.”
According to Turkish law, Erdoğan is required to step down as the AK Party’s official head, given the apolitical nature of the position and the relatively ceremonial duties in which it holds. However, the current constitution already permits certain powers previously unexercised such as the power to chair cabinet meetings, veto laws, issue governmental decrees, and decide on the internal rules of the national parliament. Thus, some experts believe that Erdoğan will exercise these powers while building a presidential cabinet and conditioning the environment for further constitutional changes and consolidation of powers. Given that Erdoğan received a higher percentage of votes in the presidential election than his party did in the general elections of 2011, it is argued he will feel confident in continuing to shape the AK Party and the government according to his vision and outlook.
On August 28th, President Abdullah Gül will relinquish his term as president and the AK Party congress will convene. This allows for the possibility of Gül to replace Erdoğan as prime minister, which has been widely speculated, but other experts presume that current Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, seen as one of Erdoğan’s closest confidants, will be chosen as the next prime minister and the current Head of the Turkish Intelligence Agency (MIT) will be tapped as the new foreign minister.
General elections expected for spring of 2015 would determine if Erdoğan will be able to secure the two-thirds majority in parliament needed for the constitutional changes that would increase presidential powers and transform Turkey into a presidential-style system. It is expected that Erdoğan will seek to ensure the momentum of this election into the general elections of 2015, and similar to yesterday’s election, the strength of the Turkish economy will be a large factor.
New Era in Turkish Politics
The ‘new era’ being discussed has now started with the first direct election of Turkey’s president and will be shaped by the likely transformation of Turkey’s entire political system.
With the election of Erdoğan to the presidency with a strong electoral mandate, it is expected that the country will move towards a presidential system similar to that of the United States. With this change, new questions arise. For example, how will a system of checks and balances be implemented? How will opposition parties organize themselves? And, how will Erdoğan manage regional issues such as ISIS and Syria?
The inability of Turkey’s main opposition parties CHP and MHP to unify speaks volume for the country’s opposition moving forward. Further challenging the status quo is the significant increase of votes received by Demirtas, signifying the importance of the potential role that Kurds will play in the making of Turkey’s future.
A few of the key takeaways from what is to be expected in the ‘new era’ include:
- • A strong and active President Erdoğan;
- • A continued activist, Middle East-oriented foreign policy;
- • More changes to the constitution;
- • A slowly revolving opposition that may see younger, liberal voters further distance themselves from the main opposition CHP and towards more liberal parties such as HDP.
Given that the results of the elections met the expectations of most investors, it is likely financial markets will react favorably in the short term, while the long-term effects of the economy will remain a significant measurement of political popularity in Turkey. A few indicators make the economy appear vulnerable, such as inflation at a steady rate of 9 percent (almost double the official target) as a result of violence in neighboring countries, Syria and Iraq, causing exports to decrease. GDP growth is down to 4 percent compared to 2010 levels of 9 percent. However, despite the prime minister having a year with both economic and political setbacks including the corruption probe, Soma mining disaster, and the ongoing hostage situation in the Turkish consulate in Mosul, Erdoğan’s popularity appears to be enduring, and most signs point towards continued long-term economic growth. The relative monetary stability with the economic growth that drove the country and the government forward in the last 12 years is one of the biggest assets that Erdoğan was able to leverage throughout the campaign.
The AK Party has now won seven elections held across the country since coming to power in 2002, affirming its solid base of working class, religious support that has ensured a plurality, and in this election, a majority. While other parties have more regional support, the AK Party is the only party that has been able to win votes on a national scale in recent years while also managing to deliver tangible results for voters such as overseeing a doubling of per capita GDP in the past decade. Maintaining this support and continuing to deliver for its electoral base will be critical to the AK Party’s continued success.
Valerie Harrison is a consultant based in APCO Worldwide’s Istanbul office.
Photo: World Economic Forum/E.T. Studhalter (cc).
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A New Era in Turkish Politics
August 18, 2014
Citizens went to the polls on August 11th in what was Turkey’s first-ever direct election for the presidency. Securing 51.8 percent of the vote, the present prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has succeeded in staking his place in history as the first popularly elected president of the Republic of Turkey. Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, the former head of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and a joint candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), gained nearly 38.5 percent of the vote, with Selahattin Demirtaş, the co-chair of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), finishing third at 9.8 percent.
Opinion polls had predicted that if turnout was below 80 percent, Erdoğan would win up to 55 percent of the vote and a run-off scheduled on August 24th would be unnecessary. While 55 percent was unobtainable for Erdoğan, the turnout rate of 73 percent still weighed in his favor, ensuring no runoff will be needed.
In his victory speech, President-elect Erdoğan, who has led Turkey for more than a decade as prime minister and who will hold the presidency for at least five years, called on the country to overcome old divisions while also making clear his intention to forge an executive-style presidency. In his speech, he stated, “Today is the day we lift mental barriers, rid ourselves of old prejudices, and peel away fears imposed from the outside. Today is the day we open the doors to a new beginning, the day we establish a new Turkey.”
According to Turkish law, Erdoğan is required to step down as the AK Party’s official head, given the apolitical nature of the position and the relatively ceremonial duties in which it holds. However, the current constitution already permits certain powers previously unexercised such as the power to chair cabinet meetings, veto laws, issue governmental decrees, and decide on the internal rules of the national parliament. Thus, some experts believe that Erdoğan will exercise these powers while building a presidential cabinet and conditioning the environment for further constitutional changes and consolidation of powers. Given that Erdoğan received a higher percentage of votes in the presidential election than his party did in the general elections of 2011, it is argued he will feel confident in continuing to shape the AK Party and the government according to his vision and outlook.
On August 28th, President Abdullah Gül will relinquish his term as president and the AK Party congress will convene. This allows for the possibility of Gül to replace Erdoğan as prime minister, which has been widely speculated, but other experts presume that current Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, seen as one of Erdoğan’s closest confidants, will be chosen as the next prime minister and the current Head of the Turkish Intelligence Agency (MIT) will be tapped as the new foreign minister.
General elections expected for spring of 2015 would determine if Erdoğan will be able to secure the two-thirds majority in parliament needed for the constitutional changes that would increase presidential powers and transform Turkey into a presidential-style system. It is expected that Erdoğan will seek to ensure the momentum of this election into the general elections of 2015, and similar to yesterday’s election, the strength of the Turkish economy will be a large factor.
New Era in Turkish Politics
The ‘new era’ being discussed has now started with the first direct election of Turkey’s president and will be shaped by the likely transformation of Turkey’s entire political system.
With the election of Erdoğan to the presidency with a strong electoral mandate, it is expected that the country will move towards a presidential system similar to that of the United States. With this change, new questions arise. For example, how will a system of checks and balances be implemented? How will opposition parties organize themselves? And, how will Erdoğan manage regional issues such as ISIS and Syria?
The inability of Turkey’s main opposition parties CHP and MHP to unify speaks volume for the country’s opposition moving forward. Further challenging the status quo is the significant increase of votes received by Demirtas, signifying the importance of the potential role that Kurds will play in the making of Turkey’s future.
A few of the key takeaways from what is to be expected in the ‘new era’ include:
- • A strong and active President Erdoğan;
- • A continued activist, Middle East-oriented foreign policy;
- • More changes to the constitution;
- • A slowly revolving opposition that may see younger, liberal voters further distance themselves from the main opposition CHP and towards more liberal parties such as HDP.
Given that the results of the elections met the expectations of most investors, it is likely financial markets will react favorably in the short term, while the long-term effects of the economy will remain a significant measurement of political popularity in Turkey. A few indicators make the economy appear vulnerable, such as inflation at a steady rate of 9 percent (almost double the official target) as a result of violence in neighboring countries, Syria and Iraq, causing exports to decrease. GDP growth is down to 4 percent compared to 2010 levels of 9 percent. However, despite the prime minister having a year with both economic and political setbacks including the corruption probe, Soma mining disaster, and the ongoing hostage situation in the Turkish consulate in Mosul, Erdoğan’s popularity appears to be enduring, and most signs point towards continued long-term economic growth. The relative monetary stability with the economic growth that drove the country and the government forward in the last 12 years is one of the biggest assets that Erdoğan was able to leverage throughout the campaign.
The AK Party has now won seven elections held across the country since coming to power in 2002, affirming its solid base of working class, religious support that has ensured a plurality, and in this election, a majority. While other parties have more regional support, the AK Party is the only party that has been able to win votes on a national scale in recent years while also managing to deliver tangible results for voters such as overseeing a doubling of per capita GDP in the past decade. Maintaining this support and continuing to deliver for its electoral base will be critical to the AK Party’s continued success.
Valerie Harrison is a consultant based in APCO Worldwide’s Istanbul office.
Photo: World Economic Forum/E.T. Studhalter (cc).
