n 17 December 2022, the Tunisian people voted in the election's first round to choose members of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, i.e., the national parliament. Voter turnout was only 8.8%, a sharp decline compared to the previous 2014 parliamentary elections that brought 67.7% of electors to the polls.
To comprehend the reasons behind the low turnout is necessary to take a few steps back. In 2021, the Tunisian president, Kais Saied, dissolved the parliament and dismissed the government. This de facto coup concerned the international community, especially because Tunisia was the only democracy that emerged after the Arab Spring within a politically unstable region. One year later, in 2022, Saied called for a referendum on a new constitution approved with 94.6% of the votes in favor—but with a lower turnout of 30.5%. The document significantly expanded the presidential powers.
The opposition groups gathered within the National Salvation Front (NSFT) in May 2022, aiming to make a united front against Saied and boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections. Indeed, its leader, Ahmed Najib Chebbi, declared that "the elections will be held under the supervision of an authority that has been revealed not to be neutral, but rather loyal to the state authority (…) and cannot gain the trust of Tunisians." The coalition included different parties, such as Ennahda (Islamicist) or the Movement Party (left-wing).
The NSFT also criticized the new electoral law released by President Saied because it prevented political parties from joining the competition allowing only independent, non-affiliated candidates to run for a seat. The runoff vote, which will be held in February 2023, will determine the winners of the disputed colleges.
The country's recent economic crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, also fostered growing dissatisfaction and distrust towards Saied. Rising inflation, high unemployment, and basic needs shortages are some of the issues he promised—but failed—to solve after the 2021 coup.
The country's path toward authoritarianism can also threaten economic stability in the short term. In October 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) preliminarily agreed with the Tunisian government to provide a loan worth $1.9 billion, but the IMF board has not yet approved it. Tunisia's political instability and lack of adequate economic reforms have slowed down the process of approval.
Saied reacted to the IMF standoff by declaring that the organization "cannot solve the Tunisian problems" and "no foreign party can impose solutions." Tunisia can rely only on minor loans from the EU and Algeria of about $300 million each. Furthermore, Tunisia’s central bank governor, Marouane Al Abbasi, has warned that the country urgently needs financial help to avoid dire consequences and must obtain other international sources of credit.
For this reason, the Tunisian president signed a new financial law in late December 2022 to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.5% from a forecast of 7.7%. Some reforms, such as lowering subsidies and raising taxes, will help achieve these goals. Despite Saied's ultra-nationalistic rhetoric, this new step forward can help to improve ties between the IMF and obtain the $1.9 billion loan.
Finally, the meager turnout has challenged Saied’s domestic legitimacy. The opposition has already called for the president to resign because of low electoral participation. Even if it is impossible to predict Tunisia's future in the coming months, this dangerous mix of political instability, lack of establishment legitimacy, and economic weakness could lead the last Arab Spring democracy down a hazardous path.
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Tunisia's Future After an Unsuccessful Election
Tunisia. Photo by Taha Loukil via Unsplash.
January 24, 2023
On 17 December 2022, the Tunisian people voted in the first round of parliamentary elections, but voter turnout was only 8.8%—a sharp decline compared to the previous 2014 elections that brought 67.7% to the polls. This points to an uncertain future ahead for Tunisia, writes Elia Preto Martini.
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n 17 December 2022, the Tunisian people voted in the election's first round to choose members of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, i.e., the national parliament. Voter turnout was only 8.8%, a sharp decline compared to the previous 2014 parliamentary elections that brought 67.7% of electors to the polls.
To comprehend the reasons behind the low turnout is necessary to take a few steps back. In 2021, the Tunisian president, Kais Saied, dissolved the parliament and dismissed the government. This de facto coup concerned the international community, especially because Tunisia was the only democracy that emerged after the Arab Spring within a politically unstable region. One year later, in 2022, Saied called for a referendum on a new constitution approved with 94.6% of the votes in favor—but with a lower turnout of 30.5%. The document significantly expanded the presidential powers.
The opposition groups gathered within the National Salvation Front (NSFT) in May 2022, aiming to make a united front against Saied and boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections. Indeed, its leader, Ahmed Najib Chebbi, declared that "the elections will be held under the supervision of an authority that has been revealed not to be neutral, but rather loyal to the state authority (…) and cannot gain the trust of Tunisians." The coalition included different parties, such as Ennahda (Islamicist) or the Movement Party (left-wing).
The NSFT also criticized the new electoral law released by President Saied because it prevented political parties from joining the competition allowing only independent, non-affiliated candidates to run for a seat. The runoff vote, which will be held in February 2023, will determine the winners of the disputed colleges.
The country's recent economic crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, also fostered growing dissatisfaction and distrust towards Saied. Rising inflation, high unemployment, and basic needs shortages are some of the issues he promised—but failed—to solve after the 2021 coup.
The country's path toward authoritarianism can also threaten economic stability in the short term. In October 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) preliminarily agreed with the Tunisian government to provide a loan worth $1.9 billion, but the IMF board has not yet approved it. Tunisia's political instability and lack of adequate economic reforms have slowed down the process of approval.
Saied reacted to the IMF standoff by declaring that the organization "cannot solve the Tunisian problems" and "no foreign party can impose solutions." Tunisia can rely only on minor loans from the EU and Algeria of about $300 million each. Furthermore, Tunisia’s central bank governor, Marouane Al Abbasi, has warned that the country urgently needs financial help to avoid dire consequences and must obtain other international sources of credit.
For this reason, the Tunisian president signed a new financial law in late December 2022 to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.5% from a forecast of 7.7%. Some reforms, such as lowering subsidies and raising taxes, will help achieve these goals. Despite Saied's ultra-nationalistic rhetoric, this new step forward can help to improve ties between the IMF and obtain the $1.9 billion loan.
Finally, the meager turnout has challenged Saied’s domestic legitimacy. The opposition has already called for the president to resign because of low electoral participation. Even if it is impossible to predict Tunisia's future in the coming months, this dangerous mix of political instability, lack of establishment legitimacy, and economic weakness could lead the last Arab Spring democracy down a hazardous path.
