Agriculture must urgently address three sets of issues:
- Reduce the hunger and malnutrition affecting 870 million people. We must address the fact that 165 million children under five years of age are stunted, and the number of stunted children is rising in sub-Saharan Africa, with 52 million children suffering from wasting, and with little improvement globally since 1990. For most of these children, the damage to their growth and development is irreversible and will impact the world for generations.
- Provide sustainable solutions to extensive rural poverty on a large scale. Three-quarters of the world’s very poor people (incomes less than US$1.25/day in 2005 dollars) live in rural areas, and most get their main livelihoods from farming.
- Mitigate 30 percent of the Green-House-Gas (GHG) emissions that are leading to world that could be hotter by 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Farhenheit).
Producing more food will not solve hunger and malnutrition problems on its own; food security requires ensuring access to sufficient nutritious food every day to every person, which goes beyond what agriculture can do on its own. However, failing to produce at least 60 percent more food by 2050 will ensure that there will not be enough to go around, with truly catastrophic effects. And the way we increase production has a lot to do with the distribution of its benefits for food security. So, we also need to worry about the resilience of production systems, nutritional implications of production systems, and how to reduce wastage.
For success in both production growth and ensuring that food gets to those who most need it, small farmers will have to be a big part of the solution. Today roughly 83 percent of the world's population lives in developing and emerging countries. And there are roughly 400-500 million small farmers in the world, heavily concentrated in developing countries. Globally, the average farm size (scale of production) declined from 2.1 hectares in 1980 to 1985 to 1.9 hectares in 2006 to 2010, with large regional variations.
Resource depletion is beginning to set in. By 2025, nearly two-thirds of all countries in the world will be water-stressed and 2.4 billion people will face absolute water scarcity. Since about 70 percent of freshwater use is for agriculture, such countries will depend on imports to meet their food needs. Worldwide, about 18 percent of cropland is irrigated, producing 40 percent of all crops and 60 percent of all cereals. Large parts of the world are already living beyond their water means by supporting agriculture based on unsustainable use of groundwater. In addition, about 25 percent of the world’s crop land is degraded; a further 35 percent of present African cropland is likely to be unsuitable for cultivation by 2100 due to climate change. And, just between 2000 and 2010, we lost on average 5.2 million hectares of forest every year.
We also face the prospect of as much as 4 degree Celsius warmer world. If this happens, food staple production could decline by 10 to 15 percent over current levels, rather than increase as is needed, leading to greatly expanded hardship, conflict, and even mass starvation within the span of one lifetime. So we not only need to increase production under conditions that are harder than when the world was responding to a big food crisis in the 1970s, but we also need to pay specific attention to how production occurs to produce the benefits of improved livelihoods and better nutrition.
Fortunately, agriculture is in a unique position to help on all these things. Only agriculture at scale (including forestry) can take carbon out of the atmosphere. Forests cover 25 to 30 percent of the earth’s land surface and absorb about 15 percent of the planet’s GHG emissions, and crops can potentially absorb more. In-depth work in 2008 also showed that agricultural growth is very effective (2 to 4 times more than other sectors) at reducing poverty. And agricultural growth at the smallholder level can be managed to provide more beneficial nutritional outcomes. But it takes proactive investment and policy changes to achieve these outcomes at scale.
The climate-smart agriculture of the future requires that we think in terms of an integrated approach to landscapes. A “landscape approach” means taking both a geographical and socio-economic approach to managing the land, water, and forest resources that provide the natural capital for food security and inclusive green growth. The World Bank Group is increasingly using landscape approaches to implement strategies that integrate management of land, water, and living resources, and that promote sustainable use and conservation in an equitable manner. The precedents for this were a few large-scale but highly successful projects in what would now be called emerging countries such as China, India and Brazil. Here the landscape approach combined with strong local leadership integrated livestock, trees, a range of crops, and the development of off-farm rural income opportunities, depending on the slope of the land and the direction of the streams, to increase incomes while conserving the landscape.
But examples are now found in Africa as well. In Ethiopia’s Great Rift Valley, the landscape approach has included establishing forest cooperatives that sustainably manage and reforest the surrounding land using Farmer-Managed Natural Forest Regeneration techniques, thus addressing deforestation that threatens groundwater reserves that provide 65,000 people with potable water. In Rwanda, a landscape approach is being scaled-up to a large area of steep hillsides by providing infrastructure for land husbandry (for example, terracing and downstream reservoir protection), water harvesting, and hillside irrigation. Training is provided for farmers, farmer organizations are supported, and marketing and financing activities are enhanced. As a result, productivity in rainfed areas has tripled, more land is protected against soil erosion, and the share of commercialized agricultural products has increased. In Western Kenya, some 60,000 farmers on 45,000 hectares of land are now combating erosion using sustainable land management practices to enrich degraded soil. In Niger, new farming systems now include trees that capture nitrogen.
For a landscape approach to work, we need secure land tenure rights, so that individual farmers, especially women, as well as communities have an incentive to invest in improved land and water management and to protect trees and forests. In Indonesia, for example, research by the CGIAR on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry shows that community management and village forest permits not only lessen deforestation and forest degradation, but also reduce risks for smallholder farmers and improve the well-being of forest-dependent communities.
Appropriate pricing regimes are needed to encourage rational use of scarce resources. Regulations backed by strong legitimacy at the local level are needed to control pollution run-off or to avoid free-grazing of animals, while appropriate incentives are in place for private farmers to invest in “public good” activities. An environment conducive to behavioral change is fundamental. Transparent and accountable institutions are critical. And if people do not have access to information they can understand, they do not have an incentive to change behavior. The ICT Revolution is now widely spread, including in many parts of Africa. This serves to impart information, provide interactive information exchange, and to collect data.
In summary, agriculture is the “essential sector” for reducing poverty, creating shared prosperity and promoting environmental sustainability. Together, we can harness the power of agriculture to meet the world’s challenges.
Juergen Voegele is the Director of Agriculture at The World Bank Group.
This article was originally published in the special annual G8 Summit 2013 edition and The Official ICC G20 Advisory Group Publication. Published with permission.
Photo: Vinoth Chandar (cc).
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The Future of Agriculture
July 9, 2013
Agriculture must urgently address three sets of issues:
- Reduce the hunger and malnutrition affecting 870 million people. We must address the fact that 165 million children under five years of age are stunted, and the number of stunted children is rising in sub-Saharan Africa, with 52 million children suffering from wasting, and with little improvement globally since 1990. For most of these children, the damage to their growth and development is irreversible and will impact the world for generations.
- Provide sustainable solutions to extensive rural poverty on a large scale. Three-quarters of the world’s very poor people (incomes less than US$1.25/day in 2005 dollars) live in rural areas, and most get their main livelihoods from farming.
- Mitigate 30 percent of the Green-House-Gas (GHG) emissions that are leading to world that could be hotter by 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Farhenheit).
Producing more food will not solve hunger and malnutrition problems on its own; food security requires ensuring access to sufficient nutritious food every day to every person, which goes beyond what agriculture can do on its own. However, failing to produce at least 60 percent more food by 2050 will ensure that there will not be enough to go around, with truly catastrophic effects. And the way we increase production has a lot to do with the distribution of its benefits for food security. So, we also need to worry about the resilience of production systems, nutritional implications of production systems, and how to reduce wastage.
For success in both production growth and ensuring that food gets to those who most need it, small farmers will have to be a big part of the solution. Today roughly 83 percent of the world's population lives in developing and emerging countries. And there are roughly 400-500 million small farmers in the world, heavily concentrated in developing countries. Globally, the average farm size (scale of production) declined from 2.1 hectares in 1980 to 1985 to 1.9 hectares in 2006 to 2010, with large regional variations.
Resource depletion is beginning to set in. By 2025, nearly two-thirds of all countries in the world will be water-stressed and 2.4 billion people will face absolute water scarcity. Since about 70 percent of freshwater use is for agriculture, such countries will depend on imports to meet their food needs. Worldwide, about 18 percent of cropland is irrigated, producing 40 percent of all crops and 60 percent of all cereals. Large parts of the world are already living beyond their water means by supporting agriculture based on unsustainable use of groundwater. In addition, about 25 percent of the world’s crop land is degraded; a further 35 percent of present African cropland is likely to be unsuitable for cultivation by 2100 due to climate change. And, just between 2000 and 2010, we lost on average 5.2 million hectares of forest every year.
We also face the prospect of as much as 4 degree Celsius warmer world. If this happens, food staple production could decline by 10 to 15 percent over current levels, rather than increase as is needed, leading to greatly expanded hardship, conflict, and even mass starvation within the span of one lifetime. So we not only need to increase production under conditions that are harder than when the world was responding to a big food crisis in the 1970s, but we also need to pay specific attention to how production occurs to produce the benefits of improved livelihoods and better nutrition.
Fortunately, agriculture is in a unique position to help on all these things. Only agriculture at scale (including forestry) can take carbon out of the atmosphere. Forests cover 25 to 30 percent of the earth’s land surface and absorb about 15 percent of the planet’s GHG emissions, and crops can potentially absorb more. In-depth work in 2008 also showed that agricultural growth is very effective (2 to 4 times more than other sectors) at reducing poverty. And agricultural growth at the smallholder level can be managed to provide more beneficial nutritional outcomes. But it takes proactive investment and policy changes to achieve these outcomes at scale.
The climate-smart agriculture of the future requires that we think in terms of an integrated approach to landscapes. A “landscape approach” means taking both a geographical and socio-economic approach to managing the land, water, and forest resources that provide the natural capital for food security and inclusive green growth. The World Bank Group is increasingly using landscape approaches to implement strategies that integrate management of land, water, and living resources, and that promote sustainable use and conservation in an equitable manner. The precedents for this were a few large-scale but highly successful projects in what would now be called emerging countries such as China, India and Brazil. Here the landscape approach combined with strong local leadership integrated livestock, trees, a range of crops, and the development of off-farm rural income opportunities, depending on the slope of the land and the direction of the streams, to increase incomes while conserving the landscape.
But examples are now found in Africa as well. In Ethiopia’s Great Rift Valley, the landscape approach has included establishing forest cooperatives that sustainably manage and reforest the surrounding land using Farmer-Managed Natural Forest Regeneration techniques, thus addressing deforestation that threatens groundwater reserves that provide 65,000 people with potable water. In Rwanda, a landscape approach is being scaled-up to a large area of steep hillsides by providing infrastructure for land husbandry (for example, terracing and downstream reservoir protection), water harvesting, and hillside irrigation. Training is provided for farmers, farmer organizations are supported, and marketing and financing activities are enhanced. As a result, productivity in rainfed areas has tripled, more land is protected against soil erosion, and the share of commercialized agricultural products has increased. In Western Kenya, some 60,000 farmers on 45,000 hectares of land are now combating erosion using sustainable land management practices to enrich degraded soil. In Niger, new farming systems now include trees that capture nitrogen.
For a landscape approach to work, we need secure land tenure rights, so that individual farmers, especially women, as well as communities have an incentive to invest in improved land and water management and to protect trees and forests. In Indonesia, for example, research by the CGIAR on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry shows that community management and village forest permits not only lessen deforestation and forest degradation, but also reduce risks for smallholder farmers and improve the well-being of forest-dependent communities.
Appropriate pricing regimes are needed to encourage rational use of scarce resources. Regulations backed by strong legitimacy at the local level are needed to control pollution run-off or to avoid free-grazing of animals, while appropriate incentives are in place for private farmers to invest in “public good” activities. An environment conducive to behavioral change is fundamental. Transparent and accountable institutions are critical. And if people do not have access to information they can understand, they do not have an incentive to change behavior. The ICT Revolution is now widely spread, including in many parts of Africa. This serves to impart information, provide interactive information exchange, and to collect data.
In summary, agriculture is the “essential sector” for reducing poverty, creating shared prosperity and promoting environmental sustainability. Together, we can harness the power of agriculture to meet the world’s challenges.
Juergen Voegele is the Director of Agriculture at The World Bank Group.
This article was originally published in the special annual G8 Summit 2013 edition and The Official ICC G20 Advisory Group Publication. Published with permission.
Photo: Vinoth Chandar (cc).
