This report is the synthesis of a 48-hour crowdsourced brainstorming exercise, where over 40 Wikistrat analysts from around the world collaboratively explored what influential positions and/or deeds will be held/conducted by a woman in the future, as well as if and how this will impact the future geopolitical landscape. Compiled by Lisa Daftari, Senior Wikistrat Analyst.
Since the birth of the Women’s Liberation Movement in the 1960s and its significant development in the 70s and 80s, women have both collectively and individually made remarkable leaps, breaking what previously would be considered gender-based boundaries. The question has thus shifted from 'if' to 'when' a woman will achieve something.
This change is fundamental to the discussion of women’s empowerment. While the “firsts” are still to be achieved in many arenas, the normalization of female leadership is now an attainable goal.
But despite the accomplishments and work of female pioneers across the world, the arenas where women have yet to make their defining mark is still a long list. Some of the scenarios discussed by analysts in this simulation include situations where women are already on the verge of accomplishing history. Other scenarios can be described as hypothetical, as they are not likely to occur in the near future but are probable down the road.
For example: While a woman has not yet been elected President of the United States, women have participated in presidential primaries on a more or less equal footing with men. It will not be long before the logical conclusion of this scenario becomes a reality in the United States. On the other hand, the simulation also explored the possibility of a woman carrying a transgenic human-animal hybrid to term--a rather futuristic hypothesis that remains unlikely for the near future.
The simulation was a thought-provoking one; many possible political, social, and scientific breakthroughs for women were discussed, explored, reviewed, and often refuted. Here are some of the more intriguing scenarios from this Wikistrat simulation.
***
The First Women: Politics
The First Woman to Become Madam President of the United States
The American principles of individualism and equality of opportunity would finally match up with practice when the United States swears in its first female president. This legitimately First Lady would break significant barriers both domestically and internationally. While other nations may have achieved this before, no woman would be as powerful as this first female President of the United States.
Strategically, this would mean a United States that finally puts action behind its principles. It is one thing to encourage other countries to treat women fairly while at home sustaining a male-dominated political system. It would be an entirely different matter should principles align with policy. In short, it would relight the U.S. moral compass.
The woman who succeeds here would make a difference not only in her success but also in the circumstances of that success. A female President would not necessarily pursue a different foreign policy than a man--the interests of the nation would remain the same regardless of the gender of the president. However, her election in many ways would signify a mandate for complete gender equality across social, economic, and political arenas--and it would be unlikely that she would be ignorant of the power such a mandate (and the tools of the office) would grant her to push for this equality in the U.S. and around the world.
However, by virtue of her gender, the campaign period would test the preparedness of the American people for such a candidate more than the candidate herself. As this scenario unfolds, the tone of the public debate surrounding specific qualifications to run the country would illustrate how far gender equality has really come. Does the echo chamber focus on her pantsuit, her haircut, and her heels to the exclusion of her education, her prior public service, and her proposed policies? A particularly nasty and sexist campaign season would simply serve as an unwanted distraction from pressing issues and substantive debates.
In sum, the first women to lead the free world would assume great responsibilities and expectations in breaking down gender roles in Washington. She would take on an even larger challenge in gaining acceptance from the allies and foes that remain part of male-dominated societies. The election of such a woman would have the effect of bringing Europe and the U.S. closer together, as well as severely undercut the idea of an aggressive, imperialistic, and patriarchal United States.
The First Woman to be a Republican Presidential Nominee
After eight years out of office, there is growing sentiment among right-leaning Americans that the “Grand Old Party” is in dire need of a facelift. In this scenario, the 2016 GOP nominee is a relatively young and up-and-coming woman set to breathe new life into the Republican Party.
The Republican Party would be in a good position to capitalize on the aforementioned gender equality platform to draw in and unite both young voters and new, more mature voters into their constituency--thus almost guaranteeing a win for this first female nominee.
Conversely, a female candidate could also spell trouble for the GOP, as not everyone in the party would like to see a woman taking the reins. While centrists some liberals and many conservatives might support this candidate, traditional conservatives might not. This could lead to a major fracture in the party and potentially harm the GOP's chances of winning the election.
Then again, as President Obama continues to evoke moral outrage among the core Republican base, a female Republican could be in a good position to be elected as the next president. And since the male leadership of the Republican Party has arguably failed to stand up to Obama on debt, taxes, and now potential gun laws, it could be logical that a strong conservative female could get the GOP nomination.This nominee would have to dedicate a large part of her platform to addressing women’s issues, thus correcting one of the major shortcomings and weaknesses of the Romney 2012 campaign. This candidate may have to compensate for perceived weakness in foreign policy by overtly demonstrating a strong command in this arena. The campaign would inevitably bring certain challenges to be met; the presidency will then offer up new obstacles.
The First Women: Society
The First Woman to be a Gunman that Kills a Large Number of People
When it comes to mass shootings, men have so far been the perpetrators. The first woman to be behind such an act will change security practices in the United States and/or Western world.
Women are largely deemed as “safe” when it comes to senseless violence, despite being used to unsuspectingly perpetrate attacks in Sri Lanka, Chechnya, and the Palestinian territories. However, in this scenario, we must distinguish between attacks based on political or religious ideology and those carried out with no ideological motive. In the U.S., an ideology-free attack carried out by a woman would trigger a new perspective on public security. The country would have to devote resources to inspecting women as well as men for possession of weapons in restricted areas. Women thus may be more likely to be tasered or have violence used again them if they too are perceived to have the potential to do irrational harm to society.
However, some believe it is unlikely that the first woman to be a gunman that kills a large number of people will comprehensively change the perceptions and policy of the government--it will instigate those changes, at most. It might also be treated as an anomaly or outlier, resulting in minimal or short-term changes. If such an attack is dismissed as nothing more than an anomaly, the only questions raised would revolve around mental healthcare opportunities and women-specific issues. Even a discussion around these topics may be seen as sexist or distasteful.
The First Woman to be Allowed to Drive in Saudi Arabia
The first woman to get behind the wheel in Saudi Arabia would send shock waves across the country. This development in the world’s most patriarchal society would inspire hope for women in the Middle East and North Africa who desire significant changes.
Any progress in the region that improves the position of women would be welcomed by women and men worldwide who support gender equality. It would have the potential to change the outlook for women, if not at the very least by giving them hope for a better future. The law’s formal repeal would be a meaningful breakthrough regarding gender equality. It would also have the potential to further political change and improve human rights for other marginalized groups.
This scenario discusses a development that is particularly likely in the near future. Women in the region have struggled and continue to press for new freedoms, so those women who have been already driving despite the ban will be seen as brave pioneers who paved the way for equality. Westerners would undoubtedly celebrate the change and media outlets would widely cover its announcement--the ban on women driving has been a popular topic in Western media outlets to date.
However, such a move would be unlikely to change the greater attitude of the Middle East towards women in the short run. Men in the region are unlikely to fundamentally change their view of women by virtue of such a slight adjustment in one country’s policy. After all, in all other conservative countries, women are allowed to drive; it is in Saudi Arabia that they are not. Thus, it is presumable that allowing women to drive will not even change the patriarchal norms of Saudi Arabia--the country would simply be doing basic catching up.
The First Woman to Become Archbishop of Canterbury
The Anglican Church, with a worldwide membership of approximately 77 million adherents, is the third largest Christian denomination in the world. The first woman to become the Archbishop of Canterbury would thus be a significant moment for tens of millions.
For the Anglican Church as a whole, there has been significant debate in recent decades over issues such as homosexuality, ordination of women priests, and other political, social, and economic issues that have impacted not only the Church but also wider society.
Anglican Church supporters see the ordination of women as bishops as an important removal of one of the very last barriers of discrimination against women in the Church, while its opponents turn primarily to Scripture as their authority on the matter. Whereas the Anglican Church in the West is far more liberal (left-wing) in its views on spiritual and temporal issues, its membership in the developing world is far more conservative and often characterized as fundamentalist.
Even if the leadership of the Anglican Church could manage to avoid a split on female bishops and other highly controversial issues, the appointment of a woman as Archbishop of Canterbury would almost certainly become the “final straw” that would result in the breakup of the Church.
This could then trigger the creation of a liberal Church in the West and a far more conservative communion based primarily in Africa, although with a small membership in Western countries. While the more liberal wing of the current Church occupies almost all of its leadership positions, its share of active membership is plummeting as the membership ages. In contrast, the membership of the more conservative wing continues to grow and is turning out to be far more active, particularly in regards to Sunday church attendance.
A female archbishop would trigger a symbolic shift of the global center of Christianity from Europe and the West in general to Africa and the developing world. It may also lead to the final disestablishment of the Anglican Church. This in itself would also represent a symbolic move marking the further decline and retreat of the global influence of the United Kingdom, which has long being the center of global Anglicanism.
The First Woman to Walk on Mars
This scenario started as “The First Woman to Walk on the Moon,” but since men have already been there, the scenario was changed to explore the impact of the first woman on Mars--a much more significant event.
Should the first person to set foot on the planet Mars be a woman, it would undoubtedly symbolize the increased female role in (and increasingly-recognized contributions to) science over the last half-century. From a geo-strategic perspective, this would greatly increase the prestige of the nation that chose to make the first person on Mars a woman rather than a man.
The first woman to walk on Mars would inevitably follow the launching of that nation's satellites into brand-new outer space territory, now that it has "blazed the trail" of outer space beyond Earth's orbit.
With nations other than the United States striving to get ahead in the global space race, to put a woman on Mars would crystallize that achievement in a moment that would also highlight a significant accomplishment for womankind. An inspiring moment in itself, it would be doubly inspiring coming from a region where before, women had been subjugated and/or relegated to second-class status.
The First Woman to Carry a Transgenic Human-Animal Hybrid to Term
News breaks that a woman is carrying a viable transgenic human-animal hybrid. Political and social forces would mobilize around dogmatic positions, and would be forced to reevaluate their beliefs on life, science, and a woman's right to her own body. The U.S. would be gripped with new fervor about genetic engineering, stem-cell research, and abortion. In the U.K., fears would rise about the biological risks that may arise to both human and animal populations. And in secret labs the world over, scientists would race to replicate the success with their own ideas of scientific advancement.
World governments continue to celebrate the breakthrough successes of women everywhere--but perceptions of what defines success continue to vary as hot button topics like legalized prostitution and combat service remain socially divisive. However, the right to a woman's body is the core issue--and when a woman now brings a potential biological risk into the environment from her own body, do all the rights conferred to her as an individual and parent remain the same? And of the offspring--is he/she viewed as a pioneer or a pariah?
If society has accepted that science should have no bounds, such a development will certainly be supported and panned by the same communities. Concepts of biological rights themselves may change significantly, and perhaps the understandings of the animal kingdom would change as well should such offspring bring its own perspective to the table.
It is also conceivable such a development could have such strong social backlash (or present an actual biological threat) that it causes blowback as far as women's rights to their bodies. Other rights may be clumsily curtailed and privacy encroached in an attempt to prevent a repeat occurrence.
This event would have a largely negative immediate impact on both the medical sciences and women's rights across Western cultures, but may also prove to provide pockets of unity between disparate sides when the end goal of science must be confronted head-on.
Conclusion
In leading a state, walking on Mars, or carrying out a mass shooting, women will be the new faces in many areas previously dominated by men. In some instances the change will be welcomed both locally and globally. In others, these women will have to fight incredible battles to achieve equality. It appears, however, that in all the scenarios explored, there were common threads that suggested that regardless of the arena, women are close to making breakthroughs that will change the status quo. We now discuss many firsts in terms of when, not if they will be accomplished.
Women have done much to garner the attention of analysts and scientists in politics, social sciences, sports, medicine and national security. They play continually greater roles in almost every arena. This simulation studied not only examples of how women will become pioneers in various scenarios (some likely, some futuristic), but how those changes will come to be, how they will be perceived by communities global and local, and perhaps most importantly, how these pioneers will change the geo-strategic playing field.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's March/April 2013 print edition.
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The First Woman To...
March 20, 2013
This report is the synthesis of a 48-hour crowdsourced brainstorming exercise, where over 40 Wikistrat analysts from around the world collaboratively explored what influential positions and/or deeds will be held/conducted by a woman in the future, as well as if and how this will impact the future geopolitical landscape. Compiled by Lisa Daftari, Senior Wikistrat Analyst.
Since the birth of the Women’s Liberation Movement in the 1960s and its significant development in the 70s and 80s, women have both collectively and individually made remarkable leaps, breaking what previously would be considered gender-based boundaries. The question has thus shifted from 'if' to 'when' a woman will achieve something.
This change is fundamental to the discussion of women’s empowerment. While the “firsts” are still to be achieved in many arenas, the normalization of female leadership is now an attainable goal.
But despite the accomplishments and work of female pioneers across the world, the arenas where women have yet to make their defining mark is still a long list. Some of the scenarios discussed by analysts in this simulation include situations where women are already on the verge of accomplishing history. Other scenarios can be described as hypothetical, as they are not likely to occur in the near future but are probable down the road.
For example: While a woman has not yet been elected President of the United States, women have participated in presidential primaries on a more or less equal footing with men. It will not be long before the logical conclusion of this scenario becomes a reality in the United States. On the other hand, the simulation also explored the possibility of a woman carrying a transgenic human-animal hybrid to term--a rather futuristic hypothesis that remains unlikely for the near future.
The simulation was a thought-provoking one; many possible political, social, and scientific breakthroughs for women were discussed, explored, reviewed, and often refuted. Here are some of the more intriguing scenarios from this Wikistrat simulation.
***
The First Women: Politics
The First Woman to Become Madam President of the United States
The American principles of individualism and equality of opportunity would finally match up with practice when the United States swears in its first female president. This legitimately First Lady would break significant barriers both domestically and internationally. While other nations may have achieved this before, no woman would be as powerful as this first female President of the United States.
Strategically, this would mean a United States that finally puts action behind its principles. It is one thing to encourage other countries to treat women fairly while at home sustaining a male-dominated political system. It would be an entirely different matter should principles align with policy. In short, it would relight the U.S. moral compass.
The woman who succeeds here would make a difference not only in her success but also in the circumstances of that success. A female President would not necessarily pursue a different foreign policy than a man--the interests of the nation would remain the same regardless of the gender of the president. However, her election in many ways would signify a mandate for complete gender equality across social, economic, and political arenas--and it would be unlikely that she would be ignorant of the power such a mandate (and the tools of the office) would grant her to push for this equality in the U.S. and around the world.
However, by virtue of her gender, the campaign period would test the preparedness of the American people for such a candidate more than the candidate herself. As this scenario unfolds, the tone of the public debate surrounding specific qualifications to run the country would illustrate how far gender equality has really come. Does the echo chamber focus on her pantsuit, her haircut, and her heels to the exclusion of her education, her prior public service, and her proposed policies? A particularly nasty and sexist campaign season would simply serve as an unwanted distraction from pressing issues and substantive debates.
In sum, the first women to lead the free world would assume great responsibilities and expectations in breaking down gender roles in Washington. She would take on an even larger challenge in gaining acceptance from the allies and foes that remain part of male-dominated societies. The election of such a woman would have the effect of bringing Europe and the U.S. closer together, as well as severely undercut the idea of an aggressive, imperialistic, and patriarchal United States.
The First Woman to be a Republican Presidential Nominee
After eight years out of office, there is growing sentiment among right-leaning Americans that the “Grand Old Party” is in dire need of a facelift. In this scenario, the 2016 GOP nominee is a relatively young and up-and-coming woman set to breathe new life into the Republican Party.
The Republican Party would be in a good position to capitalize on the aforementioned gender equality platform to draw in and unite both young voters and new, more mature voters into their constituency--thus almost guaranteeing a win for this first female nominee.
Conversely, a female candidate could also spell trouble for the GOP, as not everyone in the party would like to see a woman taking the reins. While centrists some liberals and many conservatives might support this candidate, traditional conservatives might not. This could lead to a major fracture in the party and potentially harm the GOP's chances of winning the election.
Then again, as President Obama continues to evoke moral outrage among the core Republican base, a female Republican could be in a good position to be elected as the next president. And since the male leadership of the Republican Party has arguably failed to stand up to Obama on debt, taxes, and now potential gun laws, it could be logical that a strong conservative female could get the GOP nomination.This nominee would have to dedicate a large part of her platform to addressing women’s issues, thus correcting one of the major shortcomings and weaknesses of the Romney 2012 campaign. This candidate may have to compensate for perceived weakness in foreign policy by overtly demonstrating a strong command in this arena. The campaign would inevitably bring certain challenges to be met; the presidency will then offer up new obstacles.
The First Women: Society
The First Woman to be a Gunman that Kills a Large Number of People
When it comes to mass shootings, men have so far been the perpetrators. The first woman to be behind such an act will change security practices in the United States and/or Western world.
Women are largely deemed as “safe” when it comes to senseless violence, despite being used to unsuspectingly perpetrate attacks in Sri Lanka, Chechnya, and the Palestinian territories. However, in this scenario, we must distinguish between attacks based on political or religious ideology and those carried out with no ideological motive. In the U.S., an ideology-free attack carried out by a woman would trigger a new perspective on public security. The country would have to devote resources to inspecting women as well as men for possession of weapons in restricted areas. Women thus may be more likely to be tasered or have violence used again them if they too are perceived to have the potential to do irrational harm to society.
However, some believe it is unlikely that the first woman to be a gunman that kills a large number of people will comprehensively change the perceptions and policy of the government--it will instigate those changes, at most. It might also be treated as an anomaly or outlier, resulting in minimal or short-term changes. If such an attack is dismissed as nothing more than an anomaly, the only questions raised would revolve around mental healthcare opportunities and women-specific issues. Even a discussion around these topics may be seen as sexist or distasteful.
The First Woman to be Allowed to Drive in Saudi Arabia
The first woman to get behind the wheel in Saudi Arabia would send shock waves across the country. This development in the world’s most patriarchal society would inspire hope for women in the Middle East and North Africa who desire significant changes.
Any progress in the region that improves the position of women would be welcomed by women and men worldwide who support gender equality. It would have the potential to change the outlook for women, if not at the very least by giving them hope for a better future. The law’s formal repeal would be a meaningful breakthrough regarding gender equality. It would also have the potential to further political change and improve human rights for other marginalized groups.
This scenario discusses a development that is particularly likely in the near future. Women in the region have struggled and continue to press for new freedoms, so those women who have been already driving despite the ban will be seen as brave pioneers who paved the way for equality. Westerners would undoubtedly celebrate the change and media outlets would widely cover its announcement--the ban on women driving has been a popular topic in Western media outlets to date.
However, such a move would be unlikely to change the greater attitude of the Middle East towards women in the short run. Men in the region are unlikely to fundamentally change their view of women by virtue of such a slight adjustment in one country’s policy. After all, in all other conservative countries, women are allowed to drive; it is in Saudi Arabia that they are not. Thus, it is presumable that allowing women to drive will not even change the patriarchal norms of Saudi Arabia--the country would simply be doing basic catching up.
The First Woman to Become Archbishop of Canterbury
The Anglican Church, with a worldwide membership of approximately 77 million adherents, is the third largest Christian denomination in the world. The first woman to become the Archbishop of Canterbury would thus be a significant moment for tens of millions.
For the Anglican Church as a whole, there has been significant debate in recent decades over issues such as homosexuality, ordination of women priests, and other political, social, and economic issues that have impacted not only the Church but also wider society.
Anglican Church supporters see the ordination of women as bishops as an important removal of one of the very last barriers of discrimination against women in the Church, while its opponents turn primarily to Scripture as their authority on the matter. Whereas the Anglican Church in the West is far more liberal (left-wing) in its views on spiritual and temporal issues, its membership in the developing world is far more conservative and often characterized as fundamentalist.
Even if the leadership of the Anglican Church could manage to avoid a split on female bishops and other highly controversial issues, the appointment of a woman as Archbishop of Canterbury would almost certainly become the “final straw” that would result in the breakup of the Church.
This could then trigger the creation of a liberal Church in the West and a far more conservative communion based primarily in Africa, although with a small membership in Western countries. While the more liberal wing of the current Church occupies almost all of its leadership positions, its share of active membership is plummeting as the membership ages. In contrast, the membership of the more conservative wing continues to grow and is turning out to be far more active, particularly in regards to Sunday church attendance.
A female archbishop would trigger a symbolic shift of the global center of Christianity from Europe and the West in general to Africa and the developing world. It may also lead to the final disestablishment of the Anglican Church. This in itself would also represent a symbolic move marking the further decline and retreat of the global influence of the United Kingdom, which has long being the center of global Anglicanism.
The First Woman to Walk on Mars
This scenario started as “The First Woman to Walk on the Moon,” but since men have already been there, the scenario was changed to explore the impact of the first woman on Mars--a much more significant event.
Should the first person to set foot on the planet Mars be a woman, it would undoubtedly symbolize the increased female role in (and increasingly-recognized contributions to) science over the last half-century. From a geo-strategic perspective, this would greatly increase the prestige of the nation that chose to make the first person on Mars a woman rather than a man.
The first woman to walk on Mars would inevitably follow the launching of that nation's satellites into brand-new outer space territory, now that it has "blazed the trail" of outer space beyond Earth's orbit.
With nations other than the United States striving to get ahead in the global space race, to put a woman on Mars would crystallize that achievement in a moment that would also highlight a significant accomplishment for womankind. An inspiring moment in itself, it would be doubly inspiring coming from a region where before, women had been subjugated and/or relegated to second-class status.
The First Woman to Carry a Transgenic Human-Animal Hybrid to Term
News breaks that a woman is carrying a viable transgenic human-animal hybrid. Political and social forces would mobilize around dogmatic positions, and would be forced to reevaluate their beliefs on life, science, and a woman's right to her own body. The U.S. would be gripped with new fervor about genetic engineering, stem-cell research, and abortion. In the U.K., fears would rise about the biological risks that may arise to both human and animal populations. And in secret labs the world over, scientists would race to replicate the success with their own ideas of scientific advancement.
World governments continue to celebrate the breakthrough successes of women everywhere--but perceptions of what defines success continue to vary as hot button topics like legalized prostitution and combat service remain socially divisive. However, the right to a woman's body is the core issue--and when a woman now brings a potential biological risk into the environment from her own body, do all the rights conferred to her as an individual and parent remain the same? And of the offspring--is he/she viewed as a pioneer or a pariah?
If society has accepted that science should have no bounds, such a development will certainly be supported and panned by the same communities. Concepts of biological rights themselves may change significantly, and perhaps the understandings of the animal kingdom would change as well should such offspring bring its own perspective to the table.
It is also conceivable such a development could have such strong social backlash (or present an actual biological threat) that it causes blowback as far as women's rights to their bodies. Other rights may be clumsily curtailed and privacy encroached in an attempt to prevent a repeat occurrence.
This event would have a largely negative immediate impact on both the medical sciences and women's rights across Western cultures, but may also prove to provide pockets of unity between disparate sides when the end goal of science must be confronted head-on.
Conclusion
In leading a state, walking on Mars, or carrying out a mass shooting, women will be the new faces in many areas previously dominated by men. In some instances the change will be welcomed both locally and globally. In others, these women will have to fight incredible battles to achieve equality. It appears, however, that in all the scenarios explored, there were common threads that suggested that regardless of the arena, women are close to making breakthroughs that will change the status quo. We now discuss many firsts in terms of when, not if they will be accomplished.
Women have done much to garner the attention of analysts and scientists in politics, social sciences, sports, medicine and national security. They play continually greater roles in almost every arena. This simulation studied not only examples of how women will become pioneers in various scenarios (some likely, some futuristic), but how those changes will come to be, how they will be perceived by communities global and local, and perhaps most importantly, how these pioneers will change the geo-strategic playing field.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's March/April 2013 print edition.
