rom the global COVID-19 pandemic to impactful natural disasters, 2020 was a year of both massive change and unyielding perseverance. Lacking health infrastructure, rising poverty levels, and economic stagnation have set the stage for rigid socio-political change worldwide. This year, reigning in the effects of the pandemic is a priority, but 2021 will also be a crucial year for improvement in political stability and sustainable development.
Governance across the globe looks vastly different since the beginning of COVID-19. The need to rapidly respond to such a crisis led to multiple examples of governmental overreach in executive orders and decrees at the expense of proper legislative responses. As countries gain access to vaccines and are able to fully establish their rebuilding process, it is probable that political life will return to a stable level. However, less-developed nations are not expected to receive vaccines until 2022 or later. Inherently, these nations’ governments will pursue rapidly direct responses and continue recalibrating democratic institutions and governance models. The question remains whether less-developed nations will institute authoritarian-like rule to keep stability and peace.
We launch this year’s Ballot Box channel edition with the key elections we are watching around the world.
Africa
Somalia, TBD. Delayed Presidential election. Africa's horn faces severe political instability as Somalia's presidential election has once again been delayed. Initially set for November 2020, Somalia's Electoral Commission pushed the election back due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election was initially scheduled for February 8th. However, due to disagreements in the Electoral Commission over the nuances of physical voting and lack of security measures, the presidential election has been held back yet again. The incumbent, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, has guaranteed the Somali people that there is no power vacuum. Yet, his term ended on Monday, February 8th, and his opposition is feverously denying him as interim leader. Unfortunately, due to the terrorist group al-Shabab's violent insurrections, excessive kidnappings, and assassinations, Somalia faces a present danger to its internal security. In addition to the lack of a current central executive and further conflict from al-Shabab, this election's delay places a certain doubt over Somali government's stability, not to mention influence.
The Gambia, December 4th. Presidential election. Gambian politics face a divisive election as the incumbent president, Adama Barrow, is rumored will run again for office. In 2016, Barrow promised his people that he would serve a brief term as president to replace his predecessor Yahya Jammeh’s tumultuous and authoritarian dictatorship. His unconfirmed, yet heavily rumored and well-based, plan to run as a nominee in December 2021 is a clear violation of his promise. Barrow will be representing the newly made National People's Party (NPP), while his opposition is primarily from the United Democratic Party (UDP), headed by Almamy Faanding Taal. Barrow will be opposed in the coming election, but his influence in Gambia's political system is strong, and his re-election in December is likely. Without a doubt Gambia’s 2021 election will set the basis for future elections in the country, and the surrounding region. Although not inherently a powerhouse in international affairs or Africa's geopolitical balance, Gambia's election provides an example for a democratic transition of power from authoritarian governments to democratic ones. If Barrow is re-elected, Gambia may fall into a cycle of superficial recurring elections, with only one true central and influential candidate.
Asia
Hong Kong, September, Legislative Election. In September 2020, Hong Kong's Legislative elections were delayed to September of this year by the overruling Chief Executive, Carrie Lam. Pro-democracy groups are vehemently opposed to any delay. Immediately following Lam's update to Hong Kong's democratic process protests erupted. Lam's delay is among the various actions against democratic practices in Hong Kong by Beijing-backed loyalists. This September, the political clash between the Pro-democrats and the loyalist government holds implications for the region's autonomy from Beijing. Without a doubt, the election is stacked against the Pro-democrats by the Chinese-backed government, yet Hong-Kong's citizens, especially the younger generation, are motivated in their socio-political fight against Beijing. Both Hong-Kong's populace and the international community will be watching with intense curiosity, and the question remains whether democracy will truly hold in Hong Kong's legislature, or rather will Beijing's influence continue to mandate the territory's government.
Caribbean, Central, and South America
Haiti, TBD, Referendum. Haiti's referendum to enact changes to the country's constitution creates severe challenges to establishing true democracy. Incumbent Jovenel Moïse refuses to step down, arguing that his five-year term, which started in February of 2017, is set to end in 2022. Following his refusal to step down, the opposition took to excessive protests throughout Haitian cities. His opponent argues that President Moïse is corrupt and has abused democracy in the country by using decrees of power to enact his policies. Moïse’s opposition is mainly fearful of his proposed referendum on the Haitian constitution. They argue and fear that Moïse's goal is to eliminate the clause that prevents presidents from running for consecutive terms. However, Moïse argues that he will spend the last 12 months of his term mandating that democracy is protected throughout the country and local, municipal, legislative, and presidential elections are secure and fair to the Haitian people.
Nicaragua, November 7th Presidential election. Nicaragua faces yet another troubling election. The Incumbent, Daniel Ortega, is running again, this time for his 4th term as president of Nicaragua. Nicaraguans are apprehensive towards this election, as true democratic representation is unlikely. With Ortega's party, the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FLSN), controlling Nicaragua’s legislature and judiciary, the country continues to succumb to Ortega's government. In 2019 Ortega pushed back against calls for an earlier election and followed through with an excessive crackdown towards political dissent. Nicaragua is in the midst of a political crisis. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrust the country into further socio-political disarray and economic stagnation. Nicaraguans are indeed looking for a government that will truly represent them, but with Ortega's current control of the government, not to mention the country's media, it is unlikely that 2021 will bring forth the change Nicaragua needs.
Ecuador, April 11th. Presidential run-off election. Ecuador faces a divisive run-off election between Andrés Arauz, Guillermo Lasso, and Yaku Pérez. Currently, uncertainty is prevalent as both Lasso and Perez have tied the minority vote, while Arauz won the majority. Regardless of who wins the presidential election on April 11th, Ecuador needs direct and unopposed leadership. The pandemic, as well as falling oil prices, have stalled any significant economic growth. Ecuador can no longer rely on the economic boom of 2014. Moreover, one of the major divisions between candidates lies in their support—or denunciation—of ex-president Rafael Correa. Although he faced several corruption charges and is no longer able to run for office, Correa continues to influence Ecuador's political system. Ecuadorians are searching for trust in their government. Therefore, opponents of Arauz are fearful of his connection to Correa's Pink Wave party and the inherent link to established corruption. Arauz's opponents are sure to capitalize on the linkage and draw it out in the coming months. In April, Ecuador's citizens will be looking for candidates who can support their nation's economic growth and establish accountability in their government's actions.
Europe
Germany, September, Federal Election. Germany's election system creates a complicated process for political representation. In 2017, the Alternative for Germany party (AFD) brought further complexities to Germany's political environment. With the AFD being an anti-immigration group, many Germans fear the rising xenophobia AFD portrays. The Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Socialist Democratic Party (SPD) are currently proceding as two of the most influential political parties in Germany's parliament. Compared to the AFD, the CDU and SPD are considerably more moderate. On the opposite end of Germany's political spectrum, The Left Party is also gaining interest, but not at the same level as the AFD. It is evident that the AFD will continue to gain supporters, which shows that Germany is in the midst of a growing interest in far-right political parties. Although Germany is relatively stable in its politics, the COVID-19 pandemic has proven to disarm even the most stable governments. Germany's 2021 election will be a stepping stone for further political change and diversity in the country's parliament, with implications in the political climate of the entire European continent.
Middle East and North Africa
Libya, December 24th, General election. Libya's 2021 presidential election holds remarkable influence over the country's unification and the overarching establishment of security in Northern Africa. Libya is in vital need of political revitalization. Since the NATO-backed deposition of ruler Muammar Ghaddafi in 2011, Libya has faced internal chaos. Various militarized groups control portions of the country's physical landscape. As for the government itself, the extent of influence is divided between the eastern militarized region under General Khalifa Haftar's control and the northwestern Government of National Accord. Since Libya is a major hub and passageway for African migrants fleeing to Europe, the international community, especially Spain, Italy, France, and Germany, are watching anxiously. Libya requires internal security, and with a confident establishment of it, rebuilding and development arise. However, while the election in 2021 may bring forth the beginning of stability in the country, it is unlikely that Libya will establish a real sense of security until later administrations.
Israel and Palestinian territories, Summer, Presidential elections. Israel's and Palestine's Presidential election are paired together due to the region's present geopolitical crisis. Within both of these two elections, the hope is that both sides will take specific and significant steps towards establishing a sense of peace throughout the region. In April 2020, Israel's Knesset agreed upon a governing union between the two major Israeli political parties: the right-wing Likud Party and the more centrist Blue and White Party. However, in December, the partnership broke, and Israel faced another major election. With such political contrast between both parties and further separation due to the budget dispute in December, the election's outcome is uncertain. Meanwhile, for Palestine, 2021 marks the first presidential election in fifteen years. This election places high expectations for further women's representation in Palestine's government—a decisive step towards further internal social freedom and stability. With both elections in mind, the International community looks forward to further negotiations and cooperation for stability in the region.
Iran, June 18th, Presidential elections. Iran’s influence and might in the region places its presidential election as one of the most critical elections to look out for in 2021. For the Iranian people, on the ballot is the nation's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as Iran's internal political violence and crackdown on free speech. The alliance between reformists and moderates, led by the incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, failed to reach the election goals in 2017—the economic and social reform of Iran's crippling unemployment, high-levels of poverty, and the devaluation of the central currency. The United States, China, Russia, and Iran's neighbors are keeping a close eye on the election's developments, as hardline conservatives within Iran's political system are hoping to regain control of the presidency. If the conservative Principalists can gain control of the presidency, Iran will face a more extensive militarization of the country and escalations in political disorder. Moreover, a conservative rule of Iran by the Principalists will likely establish further distrust and conflict with the United States and other western powers. Iran's election holds clear implications for the Iranian people and the region's geopolitical players.
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Ten Elections to Watch in 2021
Photo via Unsplash.
March 2, 2021
We launch this year’s Ballot Box channel edition with the key elections we are watching around the world.
F
rom the global COVID-19 pandemic to impactful natural disasters, 2020 was a year of both massive change and unyielding perseverance. Lacking health infrastructure, rising poverty levels, and economic stagnation have set the stage for rigid socio-political change worldwide. This year, reigning in the effects of the pandemic is a priority, but 2021 will also be a crucial year for improvement in political stability and sustainable development.
Governance across the globe looks vastly different since the beginning of COVID-19. The need to rapidly respond to such a crisis led to multiple examples of governmental overreach in executive orders and decrees at the expense of proper legislative responses. As countries gain access to vaccines and are able to fully establish their rebuilding process, it is probable that political life will return to a stable level. However, less-developed nations are not expected to receive vaccines until 2022 or later. Inherently, these nations’ governments will pursue rapidly direct responses and continue recalibrating democratic institutions and governance models. The question remains whether less-developed nations will institute authoritarian-like rule to keep stability and peace.
We launch this year’s Ballot Box channel edition with the key elections we are watching around the world.
Africa
Somalia, TBD. Delayed Presidential election. Africa's horn faces severe political instability as Somalia's presidential election has once again been delayed. Initially set for November 2020, Somalia's Electoral Commission pushed the election back due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election was initially scheduled for February 8th. However, due to disagreements in the Electoral Commission over the nuances of physical voting and lack of security measures, the presidential election has been held back yet again. The incumbent, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, has guaranteed the Somali people that there is no power vacuum. Yet, his term ended on Monday, February 8th, and his opposition is feverously denying him as interim leader. Unfortunately, due to the terrorist group al-Shabab's violent insurrections, excessive kidnappings, and assassinations, Somalia faces a present danger to its internal security. In addition to the lack of a current central executive and further conflict from al-Shabab, this election's delay places a certain doubt over Somali government's stability, not to mention influence.
The Gambia, December 4th. Presidential election. Gambian politics face a divisive election as the incumbent president, Adama Barrow, is rumored will run again for office. In 2016, Barrow promised his people that he would serve a brief term as president to replace his predecessor Yahya Jammeh’s tumultuous and authoritarian dictatorship. His unconfirmed, yet heavily rumored and well-based, plan to run as a nominee in December 2021 is a clear violation of his promise. Barrow will be representing the newly made National People's Party (NPP), while his opposition is primarily from the United Democratic Party (UDP), headed by Almamy Faanding Taal. Barrow will be opposed in the coming election, but his influence in Gambia's political system is strong, and his re-election in December is likely. Without a doubt Gambia’s 2021 election will set the basis for future elections in the country, and the surrounding region. Although not inherently a powerhouse in international affairs or Africa's geopolitical balance, Gambia's election provides an example for a democratic transition of power from authoritarian governments to democratic ones. If Barrow is re-elected, Gambia may fall into a cycle of superficial recurring elections, with only one true central and influential candidate.
Asia
Hong Kong, September, Legislative Election. In September 2020, Hong Kong's Legislative elections were delayed to September of this year by the overruling Chief Executive, Carrie Lam. Pro-democracy groups are vehemently opposed to any delay. Immediately following Lam's update to Hong Kong's democratic process protests erupted. Lam's delay is among the various actions against democratic practices in Hong Kong by Beijing-backed loyalists. This September, the political clash between the Pro-democrats and the loyalist government holds implications for the region's autonomy from Beijing. Without a doubt, the election is stacked against the Pro-democrats by the Chinese-backed government, yet Hong-Kong's citizens, especially the younger generation, are motivated in their socio-political fight against Beijing. Both Hong-Kong's populace and the international community will be watching with intense curiosity, and the question remains whether democracy will truly hold in Hong Kong's legislature, or rather will Beijing's influence continue to mandate the territory's government.
Caribbean, Central, and South America
Haiti, TBD, Referendum. Haiti's referendum to enact changes to the country's constitution creates severe challenges to establishing true democracy. Incumbent Jovenel Moïse refuses to step down, arguing that his five-year term, which started in February of 2017, is set to end in 2022. Following his refusal to step down, the opposition took to excessive protests throughout Haitian cities. His opponent argues that President Moïse is corrupt and has abused democracy in the country by using decrees of power to enact his policies. Moïse’s opposition is mainly fearful of his proposed referendum on the Haitian constitution. They argue and fear that Moïse's goal is to eliminate the clause that prevents presidents from running for consecutive terms. However, Moïse argues that he will spend the last 12 months of his term mandating that democracy is protected throughout the country and local, municipal, legislative, and presidential elections are secure and fair to the Haitian people.
Nicaragua, November 7th Presidential election. Nicaragua faces yet another troubling election. The Incumbent, Daniel Ortega, is running again, this time for his 4th term as president of Nicaragua. Nicaraguans are apprehensive towards this election, as true democratic representation is unlikely. With Ortega's party, the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FLSN), controlling Nicaragua’s legislature and judiciary, the country continues to succumb to Ortega's government. In 2019 Ortega pushed back against calls for an earlier election and followed through with an excessive crackdown towards political dissent. Nicaragua is in the midst of a political crisis. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrust the country into further socio-political disarray and economic stagnation. Nicaraguans are indeed looking for a government that will truly represent them, but with Ortega's current control of the government, not to mention the country's media, it is unlikely that 2021 will bring forth the change Nicaragua needs.
Ecuador, April 11th. Presidential run-off election. Ecuador faces a divisive run-off election between Andrés Arauz, Guillermo Lasso, and Yaku Pérez. Currently, uncertainty is prevalent as both Lasso and Perez have tied the minority vote, while Arauz won the majority. Regardless of who wins the presidential election on April 11th, Ecuador needs direct and unopposed leadership. The pandemic, as well as falling oil prices, have stalled any significant economic growth. Ecuador can no longer rely on the economic boom of 2014. Moreover, one of the major divisions between candidates lies in their support—or denunciation—of ex-president Rafael Correa. Although he faced several corruption charges and is no longer able to run for office, Correa continues to influence Ecuador's political system. Ecuadorians are searching for trust in their government. Therefore, opponents of Arauz are fearful of his connection to Correa's Pink Wave party and the inherent link to established corruption. Arauz's opponents are sure to capitalize on the linkage and draw it out in the coming months. In April, Ecuador's citizens will be looking for candidates who can support their nation's economic growth and establish accountability in their government's actions.
Europe
Germany, September, Federal Election. Germany's election system creates a complicated process for political representation. In 2017, the Alternative for Germany party (AFD) brought further complexities to Germany's political environment. With the AFD being an anti-immigration group, many Germans fear the rising xenophobia AFD portrays. The Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Socialist Democratic Party (SPD) are currently proceding as two of the most influential political parties in Germany's parliament. Compared to the AFD, the CDU and SPD are considerably more moderate. On the opposite end of Germany's political spectrum, The Left Party is also gaining interest, but not at the same level as the AFD. It is evident that the AFD will continue to gain supporters, which shows that Germany is in the midst of a growing interest in far-right political parties. Although Germany is relatively stable in its politics, the COVID-19 pandemic has proven to disarm even the most stable governments. Germany's 2021 election will be a stepping stone for further political change and diversity in the country's parliament, with implications in the political climate of the entire European continent.
Middle East and North Africa
Libya, December 24th, General election. Libya's 2021 presidential election holds remarkable influence over the country's unification and the overarching establishment of security in Northern Africa. Libya is in vital need of political revitalization. Since the NATO-backed deposition of ruler Muammar Ghaddafi in 2011, Libya has faced internal chaos. Various militarized groups control portions of the country's physical landscape. As for the government itself, the extent of influence is divided between the eastern militarized region under General Khalifa Haftar's control and the northwestern Government of National Accord. Since Libya is a major hub and passageway for African migrants fleeing to Europe, the international community, especially Spain, Italy, France, and Germany, are watching anxiously. Libya requires internal security, and with a confident establishment of it, rebuilding and development arise. However, while the election in 2021 may bring forth the beginning of stability in the country, it is unlikely that Libya will establish a real sense of security until later administrations.
Israel and Palestinian territories, Summer, Presidential elections. Israel's and Palestine's Presidential election are paired together due to the region's present geopolitical crisis. Within both of these two elections, the hope is that both sides will take specific and significant steps towards establishing a sense of peace throughout the region. In April 2020, Israel's Knesset agreed upon a governing union between the two major Israeli political parties: the right-wing Likud Party and the more centrist Blue and White Party. However, in December, the partnership broke, and Israel faced another major election. With such political contrast between both parties and further separation due to the budget dispute in December, the election's outcome is uncertain. Meanwhile, for Palestine, 2021 marks the first presidential election in fifteen years. This election places high expectations for further women's representation in Palestine's government—a decisive step towards further internal social freedom and stability. With both elections in mind, the International community looks forward to further negotiations and cooperation for stability in the region.
Iran, June 18th, Presidential elections. Iran’s influence and might in the region places its presidential election as one of the most critical elections to look out for in 2021. For the Iranian people, on the ballot is the nation's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as Iran's internal political violence and crackdown on free speech. The alliance between reformists and moderates, led by the incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, failed to reach the election goals in 2017—the economic and social reform of Iran's crippling unemployment, high-levels of poverty, and the devaluation of the central currency. The United States, China, Russia, and Iran's neighbors are keeping a close eye on the election's developments, as hardline conservatives within Iran's political system are hoping to regain control of the presidency. If the conservative Principalists can gain control of the presidency, Iran will face a more extensive militarization of the country and escalations in political disorder. Moreover, a conservative rule of Iran by the Principalists will likely establish further distrust and conflict with the United States and other western powers. Iran's election holds clear implications for the Iranian people and the region's geopolitical players.
