t’s easy to overlook the significance of soft power in today’s geopolitical landscape, as governments increasingly turn to hard power to sway nations or move markets through force and coercion. But in the race for AI dominance, soft power is a tool we cannot afford to discard. Digital public infrastructure and similar capital–intensive modernization investments are more than just technological decisions; they are geopolitical commitments and societal ambitions. Technology choices are not just about efficiency and cost but increasingly about advancing a positive vision of the future.
When countries opt for technology through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), they may be signing up for long–term dependency on a regime that prioritizes control over innovation, creativity, or expression. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly shaping global markets by offering cheap, state–backed technology that comes with far fewer restrictions on privacy, security, and human rights. Without a commitment to democratic values, governments risk sacrificing national security, personal freedoms, and political autonomy. Bringing only sticks to combat this agenda would be a strategic error and a losing hand.
A Competing Vision
Western companies already face a daunting challenge: competing with Chinese products that benefit from massive state investments and unrestricted data access, giving them an inherent advantage. The price of opaque agreements with CCP–backed firms is often long–term influence and acquiescence. Governments that choose information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure from authoritarian states aren’t just buying technology and importing authoritarian values, they are also gambling on future economic coercion and political pressure tied to their most sensitive ICT systems.
While some governments view these tradeoffs and partnerships as no–brainers, others work aggressively towards AI action plans that envision a thriving tech ecosystem that builds a prosperous future through local innovation. The future shouldn’t be determined by a top–down government agenda, but an open and competitive marketplace where diverse and audacious ideas can thrive and be tested. Government control, surveillance, and censorship are inherently antithetical to human flourishing.
The Stakes of the AI Race
The global competition for AI will be resource intensive, requiring massive capital investments, sustainable management of energy, minerals, and water, robust policy frameworks, and complex tradeoffs impacting labor, business, education, and society. Every country must decide which partners, approaches, and financing models to embrace.
The United States must continue to leverage its historical strengths, values like the rule of law, transparency, good governance, and cooperative engagement with government and local businesses in foreign markets. This engagement alongside its enviable innovation and a powerful humanitarian and development agenda builds vital trust and the goodwill necessary to position the U.S. as the preferred technology and digital trade partner. U.S. private sector engagement remains a cornerstone of its influence abroad, fostering relationships built on possibility, shared values, market competitiveness, and long–term stability.
The growing tensions between a democratic and authoritarian vision for AI is playing out across the globe in multilateral standard–setting and legislative bodies. Without a strong commitment to privacy, security, data protection, and good governance, there is a real risk of a race to the bottom. U.S. companies, constrained by ethical and regulatory standards (or simply the expectation of such from constituencies at home), will face an uneven playing field against authoritarian–backed and subsidized firms. They will also continue to encounter overregulation from rivals and allies alike, in response to a growing lack of trust as U.S. soft power erodes.
The Future of Innovation: A Call to Action
America is at a crossroads. The outcome of the AI race will not only determine which country dominates the next generation of technology—it will influence the global balance of power in economic, political, and military terms. The choices we make today will shape the future of innovation, democracy, global security, and economic stability.
To maintain its leadership, the U.S. must double down on its investment in the democratic fundamentals (and its bag of carrots) that undergird its hard power:
- Increase investment in global digital infrastructure through the Development Finance Corporation, ensuring secure solutions are available globally.
- Strengthen AI governance frameworks that promote ethical AI development and deployment at home and through multilateral bodies.
- Expand investments in democracy and governance assistance that foster trust and offer meaningful alternatives to authoritarian capture.
- Expand technology partnerships, strategic cooperation, and common policy frameworks with like–minded partners such as Singapore.
The AI race is not just about who has the best technology; it’s about who can offer a more compelling vision for our shared digital future—one that is safer, stronger, and more prosperous for everyone. If the U.S. gives up its soft power, it may surrender the future to those who would use technology to undermine freedom, innovation, and progress everywhere. The time to invest in a positive, global vision for a democratic and prosperous future enhanced by AI and American leadership is now.
a global affairs media network
Speak softly and carry a bag of carrots: Soft power in the Age of AI
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Image via Adobe Stock
April 2, 2025
Soft power is falling out of favor, but in the race for AI dominance it’s a tool we cannot afford to discard. Winning the AI race is as much about the most compelling vision for our shared digital future as it is about the quality of technology, writes CIPE’s Louisa Tomar.
I
t’s easy to overlook the significance of soft power in today’s geopolitical landscape, as governments increasingly turn to hard power to sway nations or move markets through force and coercion. But in the race for AI dominance, soft power is a tool we cannot afford to discard. Digital public infrastructure and similar capital–intensive modernization investments are more than just technological decisions; they are geopolitical commitments and societal ambitions. Technology choices are not just about efficiency and cost but increasingly about advancing a positive vision of the future.
When countries opt for technology through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), they may be signing up for long–term dependency on a regime that prioritizes control over innovation, creativity, or expression. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly shaping global markets by offering cheap, state–backed technology that comes with far fewer restrictions on privacy, security, and human rights. Without a commitment to democratic values, governments risk sacrificing national security, personal freedoms, and political autonomy. Bringing only sticks to combat this agenda would be a strategic error and a losing hand.
A Competing Vision
Western companies already face a daunting challenge: competing with Chinese products that benefit from massive state investments and unrestricted data access, giving them an inherent advantage. The price of opaque agreements with CCP–backed firms is often long–term influence and acquiescence. Governments that choose information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure from authoritarian states aren’t just buying technology and importing authoritarian values, they are also gambling on future economic coercion and political pressure tied to their most sensitive ICT systems.
While some governments view these tradeoffs and partnerships as no–brainers, others work aggressively towards AI action plans that envision a thriving tech ecosystem that builds a prosperous future through local innovation. The future shouldn’t be determined by a top–down government agenda, but an open and competitive marketplace where diverse and audacious ideas can thrive and be tested. Government control, surveillance, and censorship are inherently antithetical to human flourishing.
The Stakes of the AI Race
The global competition for AI will be resource intensive, requiring massive capital investments, sustainable management of energy, minerals, and water, robust policy frameworks, and complex tradeoffs impacting labor, business, education, and society. Every country must decide which partners, approaches, and financing models to embrace.
The United States must continue to leverage its historical strengths, values like the rule of law, transparency, good governance, and cooperative engagement with government and local businesses in foreign markets. This engagement alongside its enviable innovation and a powerful humanitarian and development agenda builds vital trust and the goodwill necessary to position the U.S. as the preferred technology and digital trade partner. U.S. private sector engagement remains a cornerstone of its influence abroad, fostering relationships built on possibility, shared values, market competitiveness, and long–term stability.
The growing tensions between a democratic and authoritarian vision for AI is playing out across the globe in multilateral standard–setting and legislative bodies. Without a strong commitment to privacy, security, data protection, and good governance, there is a real risk of a race to the bottom. U.S. companies, constrained by ethical and regulatory standards (or simply the expectation of such from constituencies at home), will face an uneven playing field against authoritarian–backed and subsidized firms. They will also continue to encounter overregulation from rivals and allies alike, in response to a growing lack of trust as U.S. soft power erodes.
The Future of Innovation: A Call to Action
America is at a crossroads. The outcome of the AI race will not only determine which country dominates the next generation of technology—it will influence the global balance of power in economic, political, and military terms. The choices we make today will shape the future of innovation, democracy, global security, and economic stability.
To maintain its leadership, the U.S. must double down on its investment in the democratic fundamentals (and its bag of carrots) that undergird its hard power:
- Increase investment in global digital infrastructure through the Development Finance Corporation, ensuring secure solutions are available globally.
- Strengthen AI governance frameworks that promote ethical AI development and deployment at home and through multilateral bodies.
- Expand investments in democracy and governance assistance that foster trust and offer meaningful alternatives to authoritarian capture.
- Expand technology partnerships, strategic cooperation, and common policy frameworks with like–minded partners such as Singapore.
The AI race is not just about who has the best technology; it’s about who can offer a more compelling vision for our shared digital future—one that is safer, stronger, and more prosperous for everyone. If the U.S. gives up its soft power, it may surrender the future to those who would use technology to undermine freedom, innovation, and progress everywhere. The time to invest in a positive, global vision for a democratic and prosperous future enhanced by AI and American leadership is now.
