A wave of uprisings is spreading throughout Yemen. In the Arabian Peninsula, Al Qaeda’s Yemen-based wing seeks to bring down the pro-Western regimes of Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power in Yemen since 1978, and of King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz in neighboring Saudi Arabia. Osama bin Laden’s terrorist organization is regarded as the most powerful terrorist force and a regional troublemaker. It‘s terrorist activities in the southern part of the peninsula increasingly annoy Washington, which must now place greater focus on the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, and provide more resources for keeping developments there from spinning out of control.
So far protesters are calling for immediate change and the removal of the president. In some cities, the number of people taking to the streets has reportedly exceeded 5,000. The Yemeni government is trying, albeit unsuccessfully, to restore national unity. In February, President Saleh, who has ruled the country for 32 years, proposed a coalition government in which all opposition parties were promised participation. If such an attempt to reach out to the opposition fails, conflicts between tribes will continue to rise towards boiling point and the country will split along tribal and geographic divides and finally spiral into the chaos of a civil war. There is also the real possibility that there could be a spillover effect to neighboring Saudi Arabia.
Oppositional groups have no intention of softening their position, despite Saleh’s symbolic offers of compromise and greater inclusion, because they are supported by the reality on the ground, and they have for now the upper hand. The government has purposely added fuel to the fire by fanning conflicts between the tribes. Hundreds of tribesmen from the northern region of the country, where Saleh is still able to muster strong support and loyalty, have been brought to Sana’a to support their leader.
The main protagonists are the Hashid tribe, led by the Sheikh Abdullah ibn Husayn al-Ahmar clan and one of the richest and most influential in Yemen, and the Bakil tribe, the second most influential and the most populous tribe in Yemen. The Hashid are outnumbered but are better organized. In February, al-Ahmar and his brother urged the President to resign, using, in their statements, candid and harsh language, though the President refused to accept their advice.
The continued stalemate between the two main clans adds a further dimension to the current disorder. The Hashid have mustered a growing number of supporters, including some factions of the Bakil tribe. The main allies of the Al-Ahmar clan are heavily armed, and include some of the most influential tribes in Yemen, such as the powerful Kavalan clan, from the region east of Sana'a, and several other tribes from the province of Marib.
The Marib region, approximately 120 kilometers east of Yemen's capital, is where the government is engaged in a fierce battle against Islamic terrorists, although the accusation that they are linked to Al Qaeda is only being used as a pretext to gain control of the oil-rich province. The Al-Ahmar clan is most likely trying to capitalize on the protests to oust Saleh from power.
Until recently, the Saleh government was supported by the U.S. Its position was secured in Yemen’s capital, which is also a strategic location for both him and his American backers. In Yemen, it is considered that whoever controls Sana’a controls the entire country. Anti-government protesters have poured out en masse onto the city’s streets, while the President and Al-Ahmar clans struggle to get the necessary support from the tribes, especially those inhabiting the border regions. These could be used to block the capital’s supply routes. If the conflict between tribes develops further, Sana'a will eventually take center stage in what is likely to turn into tribal strife.
The U.S. support of Saleh raises many questions. Washington has argued for years that the leaders of Yemen are staunch supporters of the war on terrorism, and have been especially helpful in rooting out Al Qaeda. However, amid lingering and growing turmoil, Saleh has pointed his fingers at the U.S. and Israel, claiming they share responsibility in the unrest. Yemen’s foreign policy has been favorable to the U.S., yet the country is increasingly an unstable state and not in a position to fend off the Al Qaeda threat. Washington is well aware of the discontent of the majority of the Yemeni population and it can be expected that Saleh will ultimately be sacrificed. However, this decision will not be taken lightly, as the U.S. wants to maintain its strategic control over Yemen.
The instability of the Saleh regime has alarmed neighboring Saudi Arabia even more than the U.S. Riyadh and Sana’a have worked out an alliance against separatist Yemeni Shiites who charge Saudi Arabia with supporting Yemen’s central Sunni-led government. In November 2009, Saudi troops mobilized near the 930-mile border with Yemen and Saudi warplanes launched air strikes on Yemeni Shiite rebels. Saudi Arabia’s main concern is that separatist schemes among the Yemeni Shiite community, led by the Huthi tribe, could inspire the Shiite Muslims of Saudi Arabia, who inhabit the Saudi Nejd region which contains some of the most important oil reserves in the country, if not in the whole world, to rise against the Saudi government. Riyadh assumes that the Yemeni and Saudi Shiites have Tehran-leaning tendencies, another reason for their desire to suppress them.
The current Shiite uprising could also set off turbulence in neighboring Oman, where Shiites, like in Yemen, do not have much representation in the government. A conflict of this scale would have the potential to destabilize the entire Arabian Peninsula, threatening American influence in the region, while Iran would be further empowered as a result. A lot is at stake for Washington as it wants to avoid giving more control to Iran in the Gulf of Aden. Tehran has already constructed a naval base in Eritrea, on the other side of the Red Sea. Iran is supporting the Shiite protests in Bahrain, host country of a U.S. naval base and the U.S. 5th Fleet. The U.S. and France have already deployed troops in Djibouti, Somalia which is located about 100 kilometers north of Eritrea.
Iran is not the only troublesome country for the U.S. in the region. China is also a potential threat to Washington’s interests. The U.S. controls the Yemeni port of Aden, which it can use to seal off the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb through which China’s most trade with Red Sea countries passes.
Huge interests are at play. The American political establishment is increasingly considering the possibility of a military intervention in Yemen. Senator Joseph Lieberman has said that, after Iraq and Afghanistan, tomorrow’s war will be Yemen if the Obama Administration does not show enough foresight. It appears that Washington is trying to dispatch large numbers of support staff into Yemen in the form of intelligence operatives and military instructors. A large number of U.S. drones and technicians are also flying to Yemen, Djibouti and Kenya in case the situation worsens in Sana’a and other regional capitals.
The impression left by political events in Yemen is that the U.S. is not going to rescue Saleh’s regime. Even if he can hold on until the 2013 elections, he is politically dead in the water and is unlikely to have any political future beyond that year.
Richard Rousseau, Ph.D. is a professor of international relations at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku.
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Rebellion in Yemen: Geopolitical Dimension, Regional Spillover, and Blowback
April 3, 2011
A wave of uprisings is spreading throughout Yemen. In the Arabian Peninsula, Al Qaeda’s Yemen-based wing seeks to bring down the pro-Western regimes of Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power in Yemen since 1978, and of King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz in neighboring Saudi Arabia. Osama bin Laden’s terrorist organization is regarded as the most powerful terrorist force and a regional troublemaker. It‘s terrorist activities in the southern part of the peninsula increasingly annoy Washington, which must now place greater focus on the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, and provide more resources for keeping developments there from spinning out of control.
So far protesters are calling for immediate change and the removal of the president. In some cities, the number of people taking to the streets has reportedly exceeded 5,000. The Yemeni government is trying, albeit unsuccessfully, to restore national unity. In February, President Saleh, who has ruled the country for 32 years, proposed a coalition government in which all opposition parties were promised participation. If such an attempt to reach out to the opposition fails, conflicts between tribes will continue to rise towards boiling point and the country will split along tribal and geographic divides and finally spiral into the chaos of a civil war. There is also the real possibility that there could be a spillover effect to neighboring Saudi Arabia.
Oppositional groups have no intention of softening their position, despite Saleh’s symbolic offers of compromise and greater inclusion, because they are supported by the reality on the ground, and they have for now the upper hand. The government has purposely added fuel to the fire by fanning conflicts between the tribes. Hundreds of tribesmen from the northern region of the country, where Saleh is still able to muster strong support and loyalty, have been brought to Sana’a to support their leader.
The main protagonists are the Hashid tribe, led by the Sheikh Abdullah ibn Husayn al-Ahmar clan and one of the richest and most influential in Yemen, and the Bakil tribe, the second most influential and the most populous tribe in Yemen. The Hashid are outnumbered but are better organized. In February, al-Ahmar and his brother urged the President to resign, using, in their statements, candid and harsh language, though the President refused to accept their advice.
The continued stalemate between the two main clans adds a further dimension to the current disorder. The Hashid have mustered a growing number of supporters, including some factions of the Bakil tribe. The main allies of the Al-Ahmar clan are heavily armed, and include some of the most influential tribes in Yemen, such as the powerful Kavalan clan, from the region east of Sana'a, and several other tribes from the province of Marib.
The Marib region, approximately 120 kilometers east of Yemen's capital, is where the government is engaged in a fierce battle against Islamic terrorists, although the accusation that they are linked to Al Qaeda is only being used as a pretext to gain control of the oil-rich province. The Al-Ahmar clan is most likely trying to capitalize on the protests to oust Saleh from power.
Until recently, the Saleh government was supported by the U.S. Its position was secured in Yemen’s capital, which is also a strategic location for both him and his American backers. In Yemen, it is considered that whoever controls Sana’a controls the entire country. Anti-government protesters have poured out en masse onto the city’s streets, while the President and Al-Ahmar clans struggle to get the necessary support from the tribes, especially those inhabiting the border regions. These could be used to block the capital’s supply routes. If the conflict between tribes develops further, Sana'a will eventually take center stage in what is likely to turn into tribal strife.
The U.S. support of Saleh raises many questions. Washington has argued for years that the leaders of Yemen are staunch supporters of the war on terrorism, and have been especially helpful in rooting out Al Qaeda. However, amid lingering and growing turmoil, Saleh has pointed his fingers at the U.S. and Israel, claiming they share responsibility in the unrest. Yemen’s foreign policy has been favorable to the U.S., yet the country is increasingly an unstable state and not in a position to fend off the Al Qaeda threat. Washington is well aware of the discontent of the majority of the Yemeni population and it can be expected that Saleh will ultimately be sacrificed. However, this decision will not be taken lightly, as the U.S. wants to maintain its strategic control over Yemen.
The instability of the Saleh regime has alarmed neighboring Saudi Arabia even more than the U.S. Riyadh and Sana’a have worked out an alliance against separatist Yemeni Shiites who charge Saudi Arabia with supporting Yemen’s central Sunni-led government. In November 2009, Saudi troops mobilized near the 930-mile border with Yemen and Saudi warplanes launched air strikes on Yemeni Shiite rebels. Saudi Arabia’s main concern is that separatist schemes among the Yemeni Shiite community, led by the Huthi tribe, could inspire the Shiite Muslims of Saudi Arabia, who inhabit the Saudi Nejd region which contains some of the most important oil reserves in the country, if not in the whole world, to rise against the Saudi government. Riyadh assumes that the Yemeni and Saudi Shiites have Tehran-leaning tendencies, another reason for their desire to suppress them.
The current Shiite uprising could also set off turbulence in neighboring Oman, where Shiites, like in Yemen, do not have much representation in the government. A conflict of this scale would have the potential to destabilize the entire Arabian Peninsula, threatening American influence in the region, while Iran would be further empowered as a result. A lot is at stake for Washington as it wants to avoid giving more control to Iran in the Gulf of Aden. Tehran has already constructed a naval base in Eritrea, on the other side of the Red Sea. Iran is supporting the Shiite protests in Bahrain, host country of a U.S. naval base and the U.S. 5th Fleet. The U.S. and France have already deployed troops in Djibouti, Somalia which is located about 100 kilometers north of Eritrea.
Iran is not the only troublesome country for the U.S. in the region. China is also a potential threat to Washington’s interests. The U.S. controls the Yemeni port of Aden, which it can use to seal off the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb through which China’s most trade with Red Sea countries passes.
Huge interests are at play. The American political establishment is increasingly considering the possibility of a military intervention in Yemen. Senator Joseph Lieberman has said that, after Iraq and Afghanistan, tomorrow’s war will be Yemen if the Obama Administration does not show enough foresight. It appears that Washington is trying to dispatch large numbers of support staff into Yemen in the form of intelligence operatives and military instructors. A large number of U.S. drones and technicians are also flying to Yemen, Djibouti and Kenya in case the situation worsens in Sana’a and other regional capitals.
The impression left by political events in Yemen is that the U.S. is not going to rescue Saleh’s regime. Even if he can hold on until the 2013 elections, he is politically dead in the water and is unlikely to have any political future beyond that year.
Richard Rousseau, Ph.D. is a professor of international relations at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku.
