The Russian prime minister – who is all but certain to regain the presidency next year – once lamented the USSR's demise two decades ago as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Although he denied that his proposal represented an attempt at rebuilding the Soviet empire, he cautiously suggested a new path forward for countries throughout the region. "There is no talk about rebuilding the USSR in one way or another," Putin said. "It would be naive to try to restore or copy something that belongs to the past, but a close integration based on new values and economic and political foundation is a demand of the present time,” he added.
While the announcement aims to forge closer ties with neighboring countries, many ex-Soviet nations have looked westward and remain suspicious of Moscow’s intentions. Despite such reservations, Putin laid out his plans in the daily Izvestia, arguing that the new alliance should emerge as “one of the poles of the modern world, serving as an efficient link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region.” After shifting into the premier’s job in next year’s presidential elections, the ambitious project will represent the centerpiece of Putin's work over the course of the subsequent six years, according to Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Meanwhile, Dmitry Polikanov, Deputy Head of the Central Executive Committee of United Russia and the country’s majority party, said that the biggest challenge for Russia forming a supranational union was winning over the trust of its neighbors. “First of all, it [a Eurasian Union] requires trust. So far Russia’s neighbors are quite cautious about Moscow’s integration attempts, while at the same time demonstrating little trust for each other,” he told Russia’s RT news outlet in an interview.
Though Russia has already formed an economic alliance with Belarus and Kazakhstan – which are set to adopt unified market rules in January – the Kremlin is now pushing for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to join the bloc, too. “We aren’t going to stop at that and are putting forward an ambitious task of reaching a new, higher level of integration with the Eurasian Union,” Putin said in a statement. However, his plans are likely to be met by fierce opposition from other prospective “Eurasian Union” partners. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, considered more Russia-friendly than his pro-Western predecessor, has continued to focus on closer relations with the European Union, deflating Moscow's hopes for luring Ukraine into its orbit. Yanukovych complained last month that the Kremlin was trying to coerce Ukraine into joining the customs union, and said that he wouldn't yield to pressure.
Despite Kazakhstan’s initial agreement to join the Customs Union in 2009, some opposition leaders in the country have voiced their concerns regarding the terms of the largely Russia-dictated talks. Bolat Abilov, co-chairman of the Social Democratic party Azat, stated that “in 2017 it will be the one hundredth anniversary of the Russian Revolution” and that he feared the risk of another political union between Russia and his country.
Moscow’s gambit comes at a sensitive time in strategic European Union-Ukraine relations. Launched in 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership Initiative (EaP) aims to strengthen ties with Ukraine and five other countries in its Eastern Neighborhood (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova), bringing them closer to EU values and standards. However, as the ultimate goal of membership dissipates amidst anti-enlargement feelings across the continent, the EU – which is planning to finalize a trade and association pact with Ukraine in December – will be left in the precarious position of pulling the country away from Russia’s sphere of influence and putting it on the path towards eventual EU membership.
Indeed, with a deepening Eurozone crisis and persistent questions regarding the unity and stability of the European Union, Putin’s utopian vision may become more attractive to ex-Soviet states. Should the option of this second "EU" eventually materialize, it would not only disrupt the regional balance of power but produce global reverberations as well.
Mikel Kotonika is a current Foreign Policy Intern at the American Action Forum. He has served as a Polling Station Advisor in Kosovo for the country's first parliamentary elections in 2010, and has completed previous internships at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in its New European Democracies Project and at the Heritage Foundation in its Administration Department. He holds degrees in international relations and German.
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Putin’s Grand Vision: A Eurasian Union
October 10, 2011
The Russian prime minister – who is all but certain to regain the presidency next year – once lamented the USSR's demise two decades ago as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Although he denied that his proposal represented an attempt at rebuilding the Soviet empire, he cautiously suggested a new path forward for countries throughout the region. "There is no talk about rebuilding the USSR in one way or another," Putin said. "It would be naive to try to restore or copy something that belongs to the past, but a close integration based on new values and economic and political foundation is a demand of the present time,” he added.
While the announcement aims to forge closer ties with neighboring countries, many ex-Soviet nations have looked westward and remain suspicious of Moscow’s intentions. Despite such reservations, Putin laid out his plans in the daily Izvestia, arguing that the new alliance should emerge as “one of the poles of the modern world, serving as an efficient link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region.” After shifting into the premier’s job in next year’s presidential elections, the ambitious project will represent the centerpiece of Putin's work over the course of the subsequent six years, according to Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Meanwhile, Dmitry Polikanov, Deputy Head of the Central Executive Committee of United Russia and the country’s majority party, said that the biggest challenge for Russia forming a supranational union was winning over the trust of its neighbors. “First of all, it [a Eurasian Union] requires trust. So far Russia’s neighbors are quite cautious about Moscow’s integration attempts, while at the same time demonstrating little trust for each other,” he told Russia’s RT news outlet in an interview.
Though Russia has already formed an economic alliance with Belarus and Kazakhstan – which are set to adopt unified market rules in January – the Kremlin is now pushing for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to join the bloc, too. “We aren’t going to stop at that and are putting forward an ambitious task of reaching a new, higher level of integration with the Eurasian Union,” Putin said in a statement. However, his plans are likely to be met by fierce opposition from other prospective “Eurasian Union” partners. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, considered more Russia-friendly than his pro-Western predecessor, has continued to focus on closer relations with the European Union, deflating Moscow's hopes for luring Ukraine into its orbit. Yanukovych complained last month that the Kremlin was trying to coerce Ukraine into joining the customs union, and said that he wouldn't yield to pressure.
Despite Kazakhstan’s initial agreement to join the Customs Union in 2009, some opposition leaders in the country have voiced their concerns regarding the terms of the largely Russia-dictated talks. Bolat Abilov, co-chairman of the Social Democratic party Azat, stated that “in 2017 it will be the one hundredth anniversary of the Russian Revolution” and that he feared the risk of another political union between Russia and his country.
Moscow’s gambit comes at a sensitive time in strategic European Union-Ukraine relations. Launched in 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership Initiative (EaP) aims to strengthen ties with Ukraine and five other countries in its Eastern Neighborhood (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova), bringing them closer to EU values and standards. However, as the ultimate goal of membership dissipates amidst anti-enlargement feelings across the continent, the EU – which is planning to finalize a trade and association pact with Ukraine in December – will be left in the precarious position of pulling the country away from Russia’s sphere of influence and putting it on the path towards eventual EU membership.
Indeed, with a deepening Eurozone crisis and persistent questions regarding the unity and stability of the European Union, Putin’s utopian vision may become more attractive to ex-Soviet states. Should the option of this second "EU" eventually materialize, it would not only disrupt the regional balance of power but produce global reverberations as well.
Mikel Kotonika is a current Foreign Policy Intern at the American Action Forum. He has served as a Polling Station Advisor in Kosovo for the country's first parliamentary elections in 2010, and has completed previous internships at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in its New European Democracies Project and at the Heritage Foundation in its Administration Department. He holds degrees in international relations and German.
