fter much anticipation, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has finally begun. Over the past few weeks, the much-anticipated event has brought success. According to recent reports, the Ukrainians have made progress in southern and eastern Ukraine. While advancements have been slow, they are promising and suggest that the Ukrainians are gaining ground in the Russian-occupied territories.
Over the past 18 months, the Russians have lost tens of billions of dollars in military hardware and equipment. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have died during the war, and many more are injured.
Realizing these pitfalls, the Kremlin has resorted to other forms of warfare in an attempt to demoralize Ukraine. One such tactic has been ecological warfare.
Last month, Russia destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine. The dam contains the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dnipro River. This area sends water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, just north of the reservoir. It also supplies water to the Crimean peninsula. Finally, given its location, the region has thousands of hectares of arable land.
Realizing its importance, the Russians decided to destroy the dam to cause further devastation throughout Ukraine. As the dam collapsed, thousands of Ukrainian residents evacuated their homes. Dozens of nearby towns were flooded, and farmland was severely impacted. But the dam’s destruction did not only have severe impacts on Ukraine’s environment. According to a report by the Wilson Center, the dam’s destruction means that “more than one million hectares of land … will be unusable for the next three to five years.” In response, the cost of wheat increased by 2.4% globally.
Previous Russian attacks on Ukraine’s environment have also impacted the international food market. For decades, Ukraine has been called the “breadbasket of Europe” as the country has some of the world’s most fertile land. According to reports, Ukraine is one of the globe’s top food producers, given its environment and agricultural sector. For example, according to the European Commission, “Ukraine accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market.”
But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put a damper on Ukraine’s grain exports, and this has impacted the globe. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine produced 33 million tons of grain in 2021-2022. In 2022-2023, Ukraine’s exports declined by 29.6% as the Russians established a blockade on the Black Sea, where they initially prevented the shipping of grain. In addition, the Ukrainians have stated that the Russians are stealing grain from their country. In other words, Russia’s war has significantly impacted the distribution of grain and produce from Ukraine. Aside from providing Europe with grain, Ukraine is also a major grain provider for countries in Africa and the Middle East. The United Nations has stated that tens of millions of people in these regions are facing “emergency levels of hunger,” and food shipments have been disrupted. As a result, Russia’s war has caused a food crisis. Finally, and most recently, the Russians announced that they had “terminated” the grain deal with the United Nations and Ukraine. The grain deal was initially established to allow the export of Ukrainian grain past the Russian blockage on the Black Sea. The suspension of the deal has now raised “fears over global food supplies.” This will only worsen the global food crisis.
These are just the latest developments in Russia’s attempt to undermine Ukraine, and cause havoc across the global food market. As I previously examined for the Diplomatic Courier last summer, Russia has committed various forms of ecological warfare. For example, Russian soldiers posted videos on social media showing them setting fire to Ukrainian wheat fields. The Russians have also shelled numerous factories, manufacturing plants, and electrical plants across the country. These damaged installations dumped chemicals and sewage into Ukrainian waterways, thus contaminating the water supply. The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam was the latest example, where 150 tons of oil were released into the Dnipro River. The rising water levels resulted in the cruel deaths of hundreds of animals. These Russian atrocities have led to the destruction of Ukrainian ecosystems. They have damaged Ukraine’s environment, severely impacted Ukraine’s agricultural sector.
But there could be further consequences. As previously stated, the Nova Kakhovka dam supplies water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Given the dam’s destruction, Ukrainian officials are concerned about water levels rising and how this will impact the nuclear plant. Currently, the nuclear plant uses the Kakhovka Reservoir for cooling purposes. However, the reservoir is rapidly draining given the dam’s destruction. This could result in a possible water shortage.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is already under threat. Throughout the war, Russian forces have shelled it. This has damaged buildings in the area, and some systems and equipment were impaired as well. Authorities from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been monitoring the situation as well.
Now, Ukrainian officials are calling for additional assistance, stating that the Russians may be planning to sabotage the nuclear plant. During a recent interview with ABC News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian intelligence services have found that the Russians planted explosives on and near the nuclear plant. Zelenskyy believes the Russians may attempt to destroy the nuclear plan to “prevent Ukrainian advances from an ongoing counteroffensive.” The destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would be catastrophic, and the disaster would be “10 times larger than Chernobyl,” the nuclear disaster that occurred near Pripyat, Ukraine, in 1986.
What would the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant entail, and what environmental damage would it cause? How might the international community intervene? I will examine these alarming questions in greater detail in a subsequent piece. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has also exclusively provided documents to the Diplomatic Courier, which will be used and mentioned in the upcoming piece.
Editors’ Note: Russia denies responsibility for the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, claiming it was an attack by Ukraine. However, the Institute for the Study of War in October 2022 warned Russia appeared to be setting the grounds for a false flag attack at the dam. Meanwhile, the New York Times in mid-June laid out some of the evidence which points to Russia as the culprit. However, while many Western national security analysts assume the attack was carried out by Russia this cannot be assumed with complete certainty.
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One Year On, Russia Continues Ecological Warfare in Ukraine
The Nova Kakhovka dam, before being destroyed in June. Photo credit Дзюбак Володимир, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
July 20, 2023
The Kremlin is resorting to alternate forms of warfare in a bid to achieve its aims in Ukraine. One of these alternate forms is ecological warfare, attacks on Ukraine's environment that inhibits power generation and Ukraine's ability to grow food, writes Mark Temnycky.
A
fter much anticipation, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has finally begun. Over the past few weeks, the much-anticipated event has brought success. According to recent reports, the Ukrainians have made progress in southern and eastern Ukraine. While advancements have been slow, they are promising and suggest that the Ukrainians are gaining ground in the Russian-occupied territories.
Over the past 18 months, the Russians have lost tens of billions of dollars in military hardware and equipment. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have died during the war, and many more are injured.
Realizing these pitfalls, the Kremlin has resorted to other forms of warfare in an attempt to demoralize Ukraine. One such tactic has been ecological warfare.
Last month, Russia destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine. The dam contains the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dnipro River. This area sends water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, just north of the reservoir. It also supplies water to the Crimean peninsula. Finally, given its location, the region has thousands of hectares of arable land.
Realizing its importance, the Russians decided to destroy the dam to cause further devastation throughout Ukraine. As the dam collapsed, thousands of Ukrainian residents evacuated their homes. Dozens of nearby towns were flooded, and farmland was severely impacted. But the dam’s destruction did not only have severe impacts on Ukraine’s environment. According to a report by the Wilson Center, the dam’s destruction means that “more than one million hectares of land … will be unusable for the next three to five years.” In response, the cost of wheat increased by 2.4% globally.
Previous Russian attacks on Ukraine’s environment have also impacted the international food market. For decades, Ukraine has been called the “breadbasket of Europe” as the country has some of the world’s most fertile land. According to reports, Ukraine is one of the globe’s top food producers, given its environment and agricultural sector. For example, according to the European Commission, “Ukraine accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market.”
But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put a damper on Ukraine’s grain exports, and this has impacted the globe. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine produced 33 million tons of grain in 2021-2022. In 2022-2023, Ukraine’s exports declined by 29.6% as the Russians established a blockade on the Black Sea, where they initially prevented the shipping of grain. In addition, the Ukrainians have stated that the Russians are stealing grain from their country. In other words, Russia’s war has significantly impacted the distribution of grain and produce from Ukraine. Aside from providing Europe with grain, Ukraine is also a major grain provider for countries in Africa and the Middle East. The United Nations has stated that tens of millions of people in these regions are facing “emergency levels of hunger,” and food shipments have been disrupted. As a result, Russia’s war has caused a food crisis. Finally, and most recently, the Russians announced that they had “terminated” the grain deal with the United Nations and Ukraine. The grain deal was initially established to allow the export of Ukrainian grain past the Russian blockage on the Black Sea. The suspension of the deal has now raised “fears over global food supplies.” This will only worsen the global food crisis.
These are just the latest developments in Russia’s attempt to undermine Ukraine, and cause havoc across the global food market. As I previously examined for the Diplomatic Courier last summer, Russia has committed various forms of ecological warfare. For example, Russian soldiers posted videos on social media showing them setting fire to Ukrainian wheat fields. The Russians have also shelled numerous factories, manufacturing plants, and electrical plants across the country. These damaged installations dumped chemicals and sewage into Ukrainian waterways, thus contaminating the water supply. The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam was the latest example, where 150 tons of oil were released into the Dnipro River. The rising water levels resulted in the cruel deaths of hundreds of animals. These Russian atrocities have led to the destruction of Ukrainian ecosystems. They have damaged Ukraine’s environment, severely impacted Ukraine’s agricultural sector.
But there could be further consequences. As previously stated, the Nova Kakhovka dam supplies water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Given the dam’s destruction, Ukrainian officials are concerned about water levels rising and how this will impact the nuclear plant. Currently, the nuclear plant uses the Kakhovka Reservoir for cooling purposes. However, the reservoir is rapidly draining given the dam’s destruction. This could result in a possible water shortage.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is already under threat. Throughout the war, Russian forces have shelled it. This has damaged buildings in the area, and some systems and equipment were impaired as well. Authorities from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been monitoring the situation as well.
Now, Ukrainian officials are calling for additional assistance, stating that the Russians may be planning to sabotage the nuclear plant. During a recent interview with ABC News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian intelligence services have found that the Russians planted explosives on and near the nuclear plant. Zelenskyy believes the Russians may attempt to destroy the nuclear plan to “prevent Ukrainian advances from an ongoing counteroffensive.” The destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would be catastrophic, and the disaster would be “10 times larger than Chernobyl,” the nuclear disaster that occurred near Pripyat, Ukraine, in 1986.
What would the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant entail, and what environmental damage would it cause? How might the international community intervene? I will examine these alarming questions in greater detail in a subsequent piece. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has also exclusively provided documents to the Diplomatic Courier, which will be used and mentioned in the upcoming piece.
Editors’ Note: Russia denies responsibility for the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, claiming it was an attack by Ukraine. However, the Institute for the Study of War in October 2022 warned Russia appeared to be setting the grounds for a false flag attack at the dam. Meanwhile, the New York Times in mid-June laid out some of the evidence which points to Russia as the culprit. However, while many Western national security analysts assume the attack was carried out by Russia this cannot be assumed with complete certainty.
