enezuela’s politics are finally moving forward. After years of political stagnation between the United States and Venezuela, Presidents Biden and Maduro are willing to start a negotiation process again. These negotiations could be a way out of Venezuela’s current situation as Venezuela is now facing a triple crisis—arbitrary detention and banning political opponents from holding public office, a humanitarian emergency regarding high levels of extreme poverty, and a massive migration of Venezuela to neighboring countries and the United States.
As a response to Venezuela’s situation, the United States has sanctioned more than 150 companies and individuals of Venezuela’s government, including the revoking of over 700 American visas of people associated with President Maduro. These sanctions amount to a financial death sentence for the Venezuelan economy. While the Maduro regime has been partly responsible for the Venezuelan crisis due to its poor political and economic administration, the United States sanctions, as a response to the Maduro regime, have also contributed to the crisis and Venezuela’s financial disaster.
Although the sanctions were targeted primarily at the government of Maduro and his people, the sanctions have had a significant impact on the country. By targeting the oil industry, the government’s primary revenue source, the sanctions on PDVSA (Venezuela’s state-owned oil company) have limited its ability to sell oil to the United States and access its financial system. Therefore, sanctions on oil production have led to a sharp decline in exports and a reduction in government revenues. Also, the economic fallout from the sanctions—combined with poor management from Maduro’s administration—has led to shortages of essential goods (including food and medicine), resulting in mass migration, extreme poverty, and high unemployment rates, among many other social problems. According to the United Nations, Venezuela now faces “unprecedented challenges” to its social and economic development.
However, the political panorama is now changing. The State Department announced an agreement resulting from the negotiations, where the United States commits to sanctions relief “in response to concrete steps toward competitive elections and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms…”. These negotiations include an electoral roadmap agreement between the Unitary Platform—the Venezuelan opposition coalition—and the representatives of President Maduro. The political chess pieces are now moving, and things will begin to change.
Considering the political panorama that approaches, the results of these negotiations will be crucial for both administrations. For example, the danger ahead of the negotiations between Presidents Biden and Maduro includes the Cuban-American influencers (mainly located in Miami), who could take a more aggressive attitude towards the Biden administration over Venezuela. Biden and Maduro will have difficulty selling any agreement because an electoral year is coming in the United States and Venezuela. With that in mind, and considering the complex geopolitical context of Venezuela, there are a few possible solutions.
First, it’s crucial for the current Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino, and his American counterpart, General Laura Richardson, current head of the Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), to have an open dialogue about the challenges that both countries face regarding narcotic activities, terrorism, and non-state actors that threaten the U.S. and Venezuela’s national security. As a key interlocutor of Venezuela’s armed forces, Padrino has a pivotal role in the current situation of Venezuela regarding narcotic activities and organized crime.
Second, both administrations should agree that Padrino’s term as Minister of Defense be extended to maintain order and stability in Venezuela, regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential elections. The armed forces in Venezuela are a crucial factor for social and political stability. Thus, again, Padrino is a key political player since 14 militaries are government members, including the Ministry of Oil, who is also the President of PDVSA.
Third, the incentives negotiated in Barbados to allow a primary in the opposition were not enough to hold for a month; therefore, a bold incentive from the U.S. to President Maduro could involve lifting certain sanctions that would allow the return of the administration of CITGO to the Venezuelan government. The profits of CITGO could be used to repay part of Venezuela’s debt and support the Maduro government’s finances—thus easing the country’s current economic crisis. In return, the Maduro government should allow Maria Corina Machado, or anyone who wins the primary election certified by the negotiation table with the support of the Unitary Platform, to run in the 2024 presidential elections.
The 2024 elections in the United States and Venezuela could represent a point of no return for both countries. Either the crisis of Venezuela continues with the political, security, social, and economic crisis, or the negotiations succeed with net benefits for both parties: sanctions lifted for Venezuela’s officials and more access and cooperation with Venezuela’s government for the U.S. to continue its fight against organized crime and drug trafficking—not to mention imports of oil, gas, and minerals from Venezuela. Missing these opportunities may worsen the crisis and provoke dangerous outcomes for Venezuela.
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Negotiation, Not Confrontation, to Solve the Venezuela Crisis
Caracas, Venezuela. Image by Maria Rodriguez from Pixabay
November 14, 2023
There is an opportunity for the U.S. and Venezuela to move toward more normalized and productive relations. Yet to move forward, it is necessary to move away from confrontation and focus instead on negotiation, write Pablo Baltodano and Jack Brown.
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enezuela’s politics are finally moving forward. After years of political stagnation between the United States and Venezuela, Presidents Biden and Maduro are willing to start a negotiation process again. These negotiations could be a way out of Venezuela’s current situation as Venezuela is now facing a triple crisis—arbitrary detention and banning political opponents from holding public office, a humanitarian emergency regarding high levels of extreme poverty, and a massive migration of Venezuela to neighboring countries and the United States.
As a response to Venezuela’s situation, the United States has sanctioned more than 150 companies and individuals of Venezuela’s government, including the revoking of over 700 American visas of people associated with President Maduro. These sanctions amount to a financial death sentence for the Venezuelan economy. While the Maduro regime has been partly responsible for the Venezuelan crisis due to its poor political and economic administration, the United States sanctions, as a response to the Maduro regime, have also contributed to the crisis and Venezuela’s financial disaster.
Although the sanctions were targeted primarily at the government of Maduro and his people, the sanctions have had a significant impact on the country. By targeting the oil industry, the government’s primary revenue source, the sanctions on PDVSA (Venezuela’s state-owned oil company) have limited its ability to sell oil to the United States and access its financial system. Therefore, sanctions on oil production have led to a sharp decline in exports and a reduction in government revenues. Also, the economic fallout from the sanctions—combined with poor management from Maduro’s administration—has led to shortages of essential goods (including food and medicine), resulting in mass migration, extreme poverty, and high unemployment rates, among many other social problems. According to the United Nations, Venezuela now faces “unprecedented challenges” to its social and economic development.
However, the political panorama is now changing. The State Department announced an agreement resulting from the negotiations, where the United States commits to sanctions relief “in response to concrete steps toward competitive elections and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms…”. These negotiations include an electoral roadmap agreement between the Unitary Platform—the Venezuelan opposition coalition—and the representatives of President Maduro. The political chess pieces are now moving, and things will begin to change.
Considering the political panorama that approaches, the results of these negotiations will be crucial for both administrations. For example, the danger ahead of the negotiations between Presidents Biden and Maduro includes the Cuban-American influencers (mainly located in Miami), who could take a more aggressive attitude towards the Biden administration over Venezuela. Biden and Maduro will have difficulty selling any agreement because an electoral year is coming in the United States and Venezuela. With that in mind, and considering the complex geopolitical context of Venezuela, there are a few possible solutions.
First, it’s crucial for the current Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino, and his American counterpart, General Laura Richardson, current head of the Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), to have an open dialogue about the challenges that both countries face regarding narcotic activities, terrorism, and non-state actors that threaten the U.S. and Venezuela’s national security. As a key interlocutor of Venezuela’s armed forces, Padrino has a pivotal role in the current situation of Venezuela regarding narcotic activities and organized crime.
Second, both administrations should agree that Padrino’s term as Minister of Defense be extended to maintain order and stability in Venezuela, regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential elections. The armed forces in Venezuela are a crucial factor for social and political stability. Thus, again, Padrino is a key political player since 14 militaries are government members, including the Ministry of Oil, who is also the President of PDVSA.
Third, the incentives negotiated in Barbados to allow a primary in the opposition were not enough to hold for a month; therefore, a bold incentive from the U.S. to President Maduro could involve lifting certain sanctions that would allow the return of the administration of CITGO to the Venezuelan government. The profits of CITGO could be used to repay part of Venezuela’s debt and support the Maduro government’s finances—thus easing the country’s current economic crisis. In return, the Maduro government should allow Maria Corina Machado, or anyone who wins the primary election certified by the negotiation table with the support of the Unitary Platform, to run in the 2024 presidential elections.
The 2024 elections in the United States and Venezuela could represent a point of no return for both countries. Either the crisis of Venezuela continues with the political, security, social, and economic crisis, or the negotiations succeed with net benefits for both parties: sanctions lifted for Venezuela’s officials and more access and cooperation with Venezuela’s government for the U.S. to continue its fight against organized crime and drug trafficking—not to mention imports of oil, gas, and minerals from Venezuela. Missing these opportunities may worsen the crisis and provoke dangerous outcomes for Venezuela.
