t the best of times, most people pay almost no attention to the maritime domain, but these are not the best of times. While travel for the global population has been restricted during the COVID-19 pandemic, maritime commerce has continued to flow. The maxim, “no shipping, no shopping” continues to hold true, even while the dynamics of commerce shift and shops move online. Despite the continued importance of maritime shipping, most “maritime” news the public is exposed to involves beaches as hot spots for infectious spread and coverage of cruise ships stuck at sea with sick and dying passengers onboard. Yet the world’s oceans—which account for 90% of world trade, among other things—have been full of activity and, not surprisingly, new challenges. Changes in trade volume, routes, labor considerations, fishing access, sanctioned activity, and criminal dynamics have all contributed to increased complexity in the maritime domain during the pandemic. To handle this increased complexity and protect our increasingly fragile global economy, we need to reevaluate and adapt how we govern the maritime space.
Changes in Shipping
Since the onset of the pandemic, there have been at least five significant changes to maritime shipping: a drop in trade volume due to a recession, route disruption as shipments that normally move as air cargo are transferred to ship, a decline in crude oil shipments concurrent with major increases in on-the-water oil storage caused by the drops in both demand and price, a growing number of vessel defaults and maritime bankruptcies, and a major problem with crew changes on vessels. As of mid-July 2020, the International Transport Federation estimated that 300,000 seafarers were stuck on ships at sea, unable to swap out with an additional 300,000 seafarers stuck on shore. Some ships have even been abandoned by their owners for financial reasons, leaving entire crews at sea without the means of getting to port. This deadlock, caused by pandemic-related travel restrictions, creates a serious vulnerability for global shipping as a humanitarian crisis looms on the water. That crisis, in turn, will disrupt the 90% of world trade that happens at sea, potentially precipitating humanitarian crises on land as well.
Changes in Development
Beyond shipping, fish account for as much as 70% of dietary intake of animal protein in coastal communities, and, from an economic standpoint, fishing accounts for more than a quarter billion jobs worldwide. While large-scale commercial fishing can involve vessels that stay out at sea for months or even years, artisanal fishing—which is a major source of both food and livelihood for millions of people—involves regular returns to shore. During the pandemic, the global seafood supply chain has seen at least a 10% decline, but in many places “stay-at-home” orders and prohibitions against inter-island transportation have effectively stopped artisanal fishing. This health-focused measure therefore poses a major economic and food security challenge for coastal communities. Furthermore, the “blue economy” boom of the last few years—focused on the sustainable, inclusive, and environmentally responsible portion of the wider maritime economy—has suffered disproportionately. On the one hand, the marine environment has seen noticeable improvement from decreased activities, but on the other hand, these more localized development economies lack the resilience to withstand the precipitous decline in opportunity. The sudden absence of coastal tourism, combined with ongoing restrictions on activities, a major contraction in investment funds, and a general decline in the economy, creates a challenging picture for the prospects of maritime development.
Changes in Security
On top of the setbacks to both shipping and maritime development, maritime insecurity is becoming a more noticeable problem. Recent months have seen a rise in high-profile flouting of sanctions in the maritime space. Coal and sand shipments in North Korea have garnered some attention, but the movement of fuel and goods between Iran and Venezuela has been among the more flagrant recent examples of sanctions busting. Given the political nature of these issues, a law enforcement effort by one country to interfere with such sanctioned activity could have blowback for the wider maritime industry, making for a challenging balance of considerations. At the same time, more traditional criminal activity appears to have also increased during the pandemic. Piracy and armed robbery at sea, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Gulf of Guinea, have spiked to record levels, involving record numbers of hostages. Additionally, drug trafficking remains a major issue, and while the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard have had a number of high-profile drug busts in the Caribbean, drugs continue to move in high quantities around the world. Even in that space, though, the directional flow of drugs is changing as markets shift—drug busts in the Caribbean now also involve the movement of drugs coming from North America as well as from the south. Finally, with the reprioritization of needs, new commodities have entered the criminal marketplace. Smuggling and counterfeiting of personal protective equipment is an emerging criminal space that will need new attention.
The Need for Governance
Addressing these new challenges in shipping, development, and maritime security will require renewed attention and likely new approaches to maritime governance. Only through effective, legally grounded mechanisms for securing and developing the maritime domain will states be able to exhibit the agility needed to cope with the evolution of the operating environment. No matter the context or the country, it is difficult to get the pantheon of maritime agencies to work together in a whole-of-government fashion to oversee the maritime domain. To minimize the impact of the pandemic on the global economy and supply chains that are vital to everything from necessities to luxury goods, however, traditional governmental attitudes must be overcome.
Paradoxically, the current challenges may provide opportunities for innovation on maritime governance. The designation of certain agencies during the pandemic, such as the navy, as “essential,” while other agencies, like fisheries, remain home, makes maritime oversight impossible. How can the navy enforce fisheries violations if it cannot confirm whether a vessel is licensed because fisheries is closed? Creating “virtual interagency cells” for round-the-clock maritime governance could help create functional mechanisms for dealing with the pandemic that are repeatable, documentable, and fit to provide timely information to key decision-makers. Such cells, initiated under these difficult circumstances, could later be adapted for long-term resolutions of key interagency challenges. Similarly, new approaches to maritime domain awareness and incorporation of new technology could increase the odds of successful maritime interdiction and reduce concerns about wasted fuel and man hours. Even new approaches to regulatory and policy development, born of current urgency, could help diminish the detrimental impact of slow legislative processes in the future.
Regardless of the approach, all governments must recognize that the current maritime concerns—most notably the crewing challenges in the shipping industry—pose serious threats to the global economy and vital supply chains. Action must be taken to govern the maritime domain and thereby safeguard our reliance on commerce. Ultimately, our life on land, during and after this pandemic, requires good maritime governance.
a global affairs media network
Navigating Maritime Governance Challenges and the Future of the Global Economy
September 5, 2020
A
t the best of times, most people pay almost no attention to the maritime domain, but these are not the best of times. While travel for the global population has been restricted during the COVID-19 pandemic, maritime commerce has continued to flow. The maxim, “no shipping, no shopping” continues to hold true, even while the dynamics of commerce shift and shops move online. Despite the continued importance of maritime shipping, most “maritime” news the public is exposed to involves beaches as hot spots for infectious spread and coverage of cruise ships stuck at sea with sick and dying passengers onboard. Yet the world’s oceans—which account for 90% of world trade, among other things—have been full of activity and, not surprisingly, new challenges. Changes in trade volume, routes, labor considerations, fishing access, sanctioned activity, and criminal dynamics have all contributed to increased complexity in the maritime domain during the pandemic. To handle this increased complexity and protect our increasingly fragile global economy, we need to reevaluate and adapt how we govern the maritime space.
Changes in Shipping
Since the onset of the pandemic, there have been at least five significant changes to maritime shipping: a drop in trade volume due to a recession, route disruption as shipments that normally move as air cargo are transferred to ship, a decline in crude oil shipments concurrent with major increases in on-the-water oil storage caused by the drops in both demand and price, a growing number of vessel defaults and maritime bankruptcies, and a major problem with crew changes on vessels. As of mid-July 2020, the International Transport Federation estimated that 300,000 seafarers were stuck on ships at sea, unable to swap out with an additional 300,000 seafarers stuck on shore. Some ships have even been abandoned by their owners for financial reasons, leaving entire crews at sea without the means of getting to port. This deadlock, caused by pandemic-related travel restrictions, creates a serious vulnerability for global shipping as a humanitarian crisis looms on the water. That crisis, in turn, will disrupt the 90% of world trade that happens at sea, potentially precipitating humanitarian crises on land as well.
Changes in Development
Beyond shipping, fish account for as much as 70% of dietary intake of animal protein in coastal communities, and, from an economic standpoint, fishing accounts for more than a quarter billion jobs worldwide. While large-scale commercial fishing can involve vessels that stay out at sea for months or even years, artisanal fishing—which is a major source of both food and livelihood for millions of people—involves regular returns to shore. During the pandemic, the global seafood supply chain has seen at least a 10% decline, but in many places “stay-at-home” orders and prohibitions against inter-island transportation have effectively stopped artisanal fishing. This health-focused measure therefore poses a major economic and food security challenge for coastal communities. Furthermore, the “blue economy” boom of the last few years—focused on the sustainable, inclusive, and environmentally responsible portion of the wider maritime economy—has suffered disproportionately. On the one hand, the marine environment has seen noticeable improvement from decreased activities, but on the other hand, these more localized development economies lack the resilience to withstand the precipitous decline in opportunity. The sudden absence of coastal tourism, combined with ongoing restrictions on activities, a major contraction in investment funds, and a general decline in the economy, creates a challenging picture for the prospects of maritime development.
Changes in Security
On top of the setbacks to both shipping and maritime development, maritime insecurity is becoming a more noticeable problem. Recent months have seen a rise in high-profile flouting of sanctions in the maritime space. Coal and sand shipments in North Korea have garnered some attention, but the movement of fuel and goods between Iran and Venezuela has been among the more flagrant recent examples of sanctions busting. Given the political nature of these issues, a law enforcement effort by one country to interfere with such sanctioned activity could have blowback for the wider maritime industry, making for a challenging balance of considerations. At the same time, more traditional criminal activity appears to have also increased during the pandemic. Piracy and armed robbery at sea, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Gulf of Guinea, have spiked to record levels, involving record numbers of hostages. Additionally, drug trafficking remains a major issue, and while the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard have had a number of high-profile drug busts in the Caribbean, drugs continue to move in high quantities around the world. Even in that space, though, the directional flow of drugs is changing as markets shift—drug busts in the Caribbean now also involve the movement of drugs coming from North America as well as from the south. Finally, with the reprioritization of needs, new commodities have entered the criminal marketplace. Smuggling and counterfeiting of personal protective equipment is an emerging criminal space that will need new attention.
The Need for Governance
Addressing these new challenges in shipping, development, and maritime security will require renewed attention and likely new approaches to maritime governance. Only through effective, legally grounded mechanisms for securing and developing the maritime domain will states be able to exhibit the agility needed to cope with the evolution of the operating environment. No matter the context or the country, it is difficult to get the pantheon of maritime agencies to work together in a whole-of-government fashion to oversee the maritime domain. To minimize the impact of the pandemic on the global economy and supply chains that are vital to everything from necessities to luxury goods, however, traditional governmental attitudes must be overcome.
Paradoxically, the current challenges may provide opportunities for innovation on maritime governance. The designation of certain agencies during the pandemic, such as the navy, as “essential,” while other agencies, like fisheries, remain home, makes maritime oversight impossible. How can the navy enforce fisheries violations if it cannot confirm whether a vessel is licensed because fisheries is closed? Creating “virtual interagency cells” for round-the-clock maritime governance could help create functional mechanisms for dealing with the pandemic that are repeatable, documentable, and fit to provide timely information to key decision-makers. Such cells, initiated under these difficult circumstances, could later be adapted for long-term resolutions of key interagency challenges. Similarly, new approaches to maritime domain awareness and incorporation of new technology could increase the odds of successful maritime interdiction and reduce concerns about wasted fuel and man hours. Even new approaches to regulatory and policy development, born of current urgency, could help diminish the detrimental impact of slow legislative processes in the future.
Regardless of the approach, all governments must recognize that the current maritime concerns—most notably the crewing challenges in the shipping industry—pose serious threats to the global economy and vital supply chains. Action must be taken to govern the maritime domain and thereby safeguard our reliance on commerce. Ultimately, our life on land, during and after this pandemic, requires good maritime governance.
