This article is the synthesis of a week-long crowdsourced simulation in which over 65 Wikistrat analysts from around the world collaboratively explored the Millennial Generation’s effect on U.S. foreign policy.
Millennials constitute the biggest generational cohort the United States has ever seen (almost 80 million individuals). As a result, their impact on U.S. foreign policy will be as seismic as that made by both the World War II and Vietnam War generations.
To determine the impact that Millennials will have, Wikistrat’s community of analysts explored the values that define them and ways in which these values might shape foreign policy in the coming years; conclusions ranged from a more focused role for the military to flexible immigration for foreign university students.
How will Millennials shape U.S. foreign policy in the future?
A Military with a New Focus
After the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, Millennials will be more mindful of the costs of foreign military interventions. In other words, they will not want the U.S. to overextend itself with overly activist policies if the policies are “not worth it.” Over time, this Jeffersonian swing, while moderated by pragmatic political and economic interests, will influence a large share of the foreign policy elite. Elections will place candidates into office who support a less active American presence in the world in the name of cost savings and moral principles.
If Millennials do send their military abroad, it will often be for multilateral humanitarian intervention, perhaps overseen by the United Nations or some coalition of states. Millennials will continue to volunteer time, energy, and funds to non-profits focused on human rights. The gap between American ideals and actions will also increase support for candidates advocating soft power. By linking human rights violations to a loss of American influence, Millennials will boost internationalist factions within the liberal camp and neoconservative candidates in conservative circles.
Fighting According to the Law
Millennials are more aware of international law and human rights than any previous generation.
They will ask moral and legal questions concerning the legitimacy of drone operations and seek to reduce the scope of the program in the Middle East and South Asia. Millennials will also seek to minimize the number of civilian casualties in drone strikes by investing in new technologies that could make drones less error-prone and by putting in place a stricter set of regulations that determine the circumstances under which drone strikes may legally happen.
“People Power” Replacing Traditional Diplomacy
Millennials will attempt to work out issues by using non-traditional methods, such as “people power” and social networking instead of traditional diplomacy or military presence. They will be more concerned with using soft power—specifically the ways in which technology can be used to support citizen’s movements abroad. With the U.S. still struggling economically and the public wary of foreign engagement, the most effective method for new Millennial leaders will be to project soft U.S. power through several different mediums: social media, funds for democratic development, increased joint-trade technology delegations, and economic and political consulting services. Therefore, once a new non-violent movement gathers steam and envelops a country or region, U.S. support will organically enable protest movements to be more grounded and organized in order to consolidate power peacefully.
The significant modern role of non-violent protest movements organized via social media will change the U.S. foreign policy establishment and will require the U.S. to adapt in order to ensure that new governments put in place via popular protest will support U.S. policies. New Millennial leaders will demand that changes and significant reforms take place within the U.S. Department of State and the NGO community. Social media activism will be at the forefront of this new soft power policy. U.S.-friendly, non-violent social movements across the globe will be supported monetarily and will be consulted by experts from U.S. democratic institutions to ensure that new governments will either continue to be or will become friendly to the United States.
A Shift Away from Oil
Millennials are increasingly apathetic towards U.S. policy in the Middle East and question the extent of U.S. involvement in the past two decades. Growing up with the War on Terror, they are irritated by expansive security measures at home and the continuing military presence abroad. They simply no longer see why their country invests so much in the region. The decrease in energy dependency adds to the notion that the Middle East is no longer strategically important. Withdrawal from the region is further supported by a green movement that seeks to decrease U.S. dependence on fossil fuels altogether.
To placate long-standing Arab Gulf allies who are threatened by Iran's nuclear weapons potential, the U.S. will encourage these states to adopt closer collective security agreements, but will clarify that they cannot rely on American security guarantees alone.
Greening of Industry
As carbon emissions standards are lowered and the ability to buy offsets to balance production loads grows, Millennials will support the greening of industry. From eliminating carbon offsets to co-working arrangements for new business, Millennials will alter the way work is done in the future. Implications for foreign policy involve stronger cross-border industrial development and trade relations, a relaxing of trade limits and quotas and the creation of cross-border profit-sharing initiatives to encourage fair trade relations.
Concern for human rights from the fair labor point of view will be the central value for Millennials. They will not want only dependable and cheap goods; they will want the goods to be produced in a conscientious way. They will minimize the role of nation-states in production and trade with the purpose of imposing their values globally.
Re-Regulation
Millennials believe that governments can and should do more to solve problems than earlier generations. This will inevitably lead to political pressures that governments should play a stronger role in regulating economic behavior and should not leave things up to private business or individuals.
As the Millennials' influence grows, they will usher in an era of re-regulation, challenging both the private sector and foreign governments. The increased regulation will lead to more aggressive government positions on issues of regulatory policy, first impacting financial markets. Over time, Millennials are more likely to demand more and better regulations of business behavior than today's free market dynamics that allowed developing countries to grow their economies relatively unburdened by them—which could create friction between the U.S. and newly industrialized countries.
Foreign Students and American Values
Millennials grew up in a world where higher education meant better jobs, higher standards of living and independence. Unfortunately, due to the overwhelming cost of higher education and the collapse of the job market with the Great Recession, many Millennials are saddled with student loan debt that they are unable to pay back. Universities now face the reality that costs to U.S. students may be too high and must look to increase the number of foreign students on campuses in order to keep university doors open. This higher education debt crisis gives Millennials the incentive to drastically shape U.S. foreign policy by creating government visa incentives for foreign students, thus allowing for a cost competitive education for U.S. students.
Although initially designed to keep universities open, Millennials in power see a number of advantages to increasing foreign students studying in the U.S.—a large number of tuition-paying foreign students keep costs down for U.S. students (and reduce family fiscal load and/or debt), but also result in greater globalization of American values with the added benefit of increasing global understanding. In addition, allowing international students to work and learn with U.S. students opens up a broad and global networking environment. This allows students to gain better access to more jobs on a global scale, which in turn can help pay off student loan debt.
Conclusions
Millennials are America’s first all-digital generation, raised during the height of the information age. They are connected and peer-oriented like no generation before. Coming of age in the Global War on Terror and the Great Recession, Millennials are likewise far more morally relativistic and environmentally and financially conscientious than their predecessors. They expect a transparent government that is more involved in solving the country’s problems and support human rights, but are skeptical of unilateral military intervention abroad.
Looking ahead, Millennials are expected to learn and implement what they perceive as the lessons learned from their predecessors’ mistakes. U.S. foreign policymakers are expected to support a more isolationist approach in terms of sending troops abroad yet to be more willing to aid multinational operations and to support the promotion of global values. This “leading from behind” will be the main shift that will be attributed to the Millennials in foreign policy in the years to come.
Compiled by Dr. Maha Hosain Aziz, Wikistrat Senior Analyst, and Nick Ottens, Wikistrat Contributing Analyst.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's September/October 2013 print edition.
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Millennials and the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy
September 10, 2013
This article is the synthesis of a week-long crowdsourced simulation in which over 65 Wikistrat analysts from around the world collaboratively explored the Millennial Generation’s effect on U.S. foreign policy.
Millennials constitute the biggest generational cohort the United States has ever seen (almost 80 million individuals). As a result, their impact on U.S. foreign policy will be as seismic as that made by both the World War II and Vietnam War generations.
To determine the impact that Millennials will have, Wikistrat’s community of analysts explored the values that define them and ways in which these values might shape foreign policy in the coming years; conclusions ranged from a more focused role for the military to flexible immigration for foreign university students.
How will Millennials shape U.S. foreign policy in the future?
A Military with a New Focus
After the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, Millennials will be more mindful of the costs of foreign military interventions. In other words, they will not want the U.S. to overextend itself with overly activist policies if the policies are “not worth it.” Over time, this Jeffersonian swing, while moderated by pragmatic political and economic interests, will influence a large share of the foreign policy elite. Elections will place candidates into office who support a less active American presence in the world in the name of cost savings and moral principles.
If Millennials do send their military abroad, it will often be for multilateral humanitarian intervention, perhaps overseen by the United Nations or some coalition of states. Millennials will continue to volunteer time, energy, and funds to non-profits focused on human rights. The gap between American ideals and actions will also increase support for candidates advocating soft power. By linking human rights violations to a loss of American influence, Millennials will boost internationalist factions within the liberal camp and neoconservative candidates in conservative circles.
Fighting According to the Law
Millennials are more aware of international law and human rights than any previous generation.
They will ask moral and legal questions concerning the legitimacy of drone operations and seek to reduce the scope of the program in the Middle East and South Asia. Millennials will also seek to minimize the number of civilian casualties in drone strikes by investing in new technologies that could make drones less error-prone and by putting in place a stricter set of regulations that determine the circumstances under which drone strikes may legally happen.
“People Power” Replacing Traditional Diplomacy
Millennials will attempt to work out issues by using non-traditional methods, such as “people power” and social networking instead of traditional diplomacy or military presence. They will be more concerned with using soft power—specifically the ways in which technology can be used to support citizen’s movements abroad. With the U.S. still struggling economically and the public wary of foreign engagement, the most effective method for new Millennial leaders will be to project soft U.S. power through several different mediums: social media, funds for democratic development, increased joint-trade technology delegations, and economic and political consulting services. Therefore, once a new non-violent movement gathers steam and envelops a country or region, U.S. support will organically enable protest movements to be more grounded and organized in order to consolidate power peacefully.
The significant modern role of non-violent protest movements organized via social media will change the U.S. foreign policy establishment and will require the U.S. to adapt in order to ensure that new governments put in place via popular protest will support U.S. policies. New Millennial leaders will demand that changes and significant reforms take place within the U.S. Department of State and the NGO community. Social media activism will be at the forefront of this new soft power policy. U.S.-friendly, non-violent social movements across the globe will be supported monetarily and will be consulted by experts from U.S. democratic institutions to ensure that new governments will either continue to be or will become friendly to the United States.
A Shift Away from Oil
Millennials are increasingly apathetic towards U.S. policy in the Middle East and question the extent of U.S. involvement in the past two decades. Growing up with the War on Terror, they are irritated by expansive security measures at home and the continuing military presence abroad. They simply no longer see why their country invests so much in the region. The decrease in energy dependency adds to the notion that the Middle East is no longer strategically important. Withdrawal from the region is further supported by a green movement that seeks to decrease U.S. dependence on fossil fuels altogether.
To placate long-standing Arab Gulf allies who are threatened by Iran's nuclear weapons potential, the U.S. will encourage these states to adopt closer collective security agreements, but will clarify that they cannot rely on American security guarantees alone.
Greening of Industry
As carbon emissions standards are lowered and the ability to buy offsets to balance production loads grows, Millennials will support the greening of industry. From eliminating carbon offsets to co-working arrangements for new business, Millennials will alter the way work is done in the future. Implications for foreign policy involve stronger cross-border industrial development and trade relations, a relaxing of trade limits and quotas and the creation of cross-border profit-sharing initiatives to encourage fair trade relations.
Concern for human rights from the fair labor point of view will be the central value for Millennials. They will not want only dependable and cheap goods; they will want the goods to be produced in a conscientious way. They will minimize the role of nation-states in production and trade with the purpose of imposing their values globally.
Re-Regulation
Millennials believe that governments can and should do more to solve problems than earlier generations. This will inevitably lead to political pressures that governments should play a stronger role in regulating economic behavior and should not leave things up to private business or individuals.
As the Millennials' influence grows, they will usher in an era of re-regulation, challenging both the private sector and foreign governments. The increased regulation will lead to more aggressive government positions on issues of regulatory policy, first impacting financial markets. Over time, Millennials are more likely to demand more and better regulations of business behavior than today's free market dynamics that allowed developing countries to grow their economies relatively unburdened by them—which could create friction between the U.S. and newly industrialized countries.
Foreign Students and American Values
Millennials grew up in a world where higher education meant better jobs, higher standards of living and independence. Unfortunately, due to the overwhelming cost of higher education and the collapse of the job market with the Great Recession, many Millennials are saddled with student loan debt that they are unable to pay back. Universities now face the reality that costs to U.S. students may be too high and must look to increase the number of foreign students on campuses in order to keep university doors open. This higher education debt crisis gives Millennials the incentive to drastically shape U.S. foreign policy by creating government visa incentives for foreign students, thus allowing for a cost competitive education for U.S. students.
Although initially designed to keep universities open, Millennials in power see a number of advantages to increasing foreign students studying in the U.S.—a large number of tuition-paying foreign students keep costs down for U.S. students (and reduce family fiscal load and/or debt), but also result in greater globalization of American values with the added benefit of increasing global understanding. In addition, allowing international students to work and learn with U.S. students opens up a broad and global networking environment. This allows students to gain better access to more jobs on a global scale, which in turn can help pay off student loan debt.
Conclusions
Millennials are America’s first all-digital generation, raised during the height of the information age. They are connected and peer-oriented like no generation before. Coming of age in the Global War on Terror and the Great Recession, Millennials are likewise far more morally relativistic and environmentally and financially conscientious than their predecessors. They expect a transparent government that is more involved in solving the country’s problems and support human rights, but are skeptical of unilateral military intervention abroad.
Looking ahead, Millennials are expected to learn and implement what they perceive as the lessons learned from their predecessors’ mistakes. U.S. foreign policymakers are expected to support a more isolationist approach in terms of sending troops abroad yet to be more willing to aid multinational operations and to support the promotion of global values. This “leading from behind” will be the main shift that will be attributed to the Millennials in foreign policy in the years to come.
Compiled by Dr. Maha Hosain Aziz, Wikistrat Senior Analyst, and Nick Ottens, Wikistrat Contributing Analyst.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's September/October 2013 print edition.
