Since separating himself from the governing Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in the late 1990s, Anwar Ibrahim has labored relentlessly at the forefront of Malaysia's political opposition movement. After successfully upending the BN's two-thirds parliamentary majority in the landmark 2008 general election, it looked as though 2013 would be the year in which the Anwar-fronted People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat) finally broke through at the ballot box.
That much hoped-for political watershed will now be deferred for at least one more election cycle. After a record turnout last Sunday, the BN emerged with a necessary majority of 133 seats against 89 for the opposition. Although they racked up 7 more seats than in 2008, Anwar and his allies remain well short of a parliamentary majority.
But while Prime Minister Najib gets to keep his job for the time being, in the long run, 2013 may amount to little more than a pyrrhic victory. The election results did little to bridge the growing political chasm between differing segments of Malaysian society. Going forward, the future viability of the ruling coalition is looking more precarious than ever.
For the first time, in spite of all the built-in advantages that comes with decades of unchecked incumbency, the Barisan Nasional failed to secure the popular vote, losing by a decisive 4 percentage points to Pakatan Rakyat. Such a pronounced disparity between the popular vote and the allocation of parliamentary seats lends further credence to studies released in the aftermath of the poll calling into question the legitimacy of the entire electoral process. Critics of the BN maintain they are now only capable of winning elections by gerrymandering electoral districts, relying on a highly partisan mainstream media, and churning out votes through a combination of patronage politics and generous social welfare handouts.
Further complicating matters, the opposition has been aggressively pushing back against the outcome. A mass protest rally held on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur drew a crowd of over 50,000 supporters Wednesday night and Mr. Anwar has made clear that he views the Electoral Commission charged with overseeing the vote as politically compromised.
But assuming the final result holds up under public pressure, the trend lines are nonetheless moving decisively against a continuation of the status quo. After decades of unchallenged rule, the government is now finding it quite difficult to keep up with tectonic shifts in the country's socioeconomic fabric. Cosmopolitan Malays have largely turned against the BN en masse, fed up with state corruption and a rigged political game. The opposition now commands overwhelming support in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, the most prosperous economic engines in the country.
Rising disillusionment with the status quo is further magnified by an exponential increase in the use of social media. Both grassroots activists and savvy politicians alike now utilize platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to circumvent the mainstream media narrative and get their message out. In the country today over half the population has a Facebook account and a majority of young Malaysians turn to the internet instead of television as their primary news source. The proliferation of independent minded online media outlets provides Malays with a platform to shed light on egregious abuses of office, drawing the ire of the general public and raising demands for greater transparency and accountability.
PM Najib and his United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the most powerful faction within Barisan, must now walk a fine line between placating party hardliners and maintaining popular legitimacy amongst a broader general public increasingly fed up with UMNO's traditional brand of ethnocentric politics. UMNO policies designed to favor ethnically Malay bumiputera (sons of the soil) have put the party at cross-purposes with fellow travelers in the BN. While said policies enjoy broad backing amongst rural Malays who form the core base of party support, such overt discrimination is turning away scores of ethnic-Chinese Malaysians from lending their vote to the coalition. Tellingly, the BN-affiliated Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) hemorrhaged support to the opposition alternative Democratic Action Party (DAP) when the votes were tallied up on Sunday.
UMNO's internal cohesion is also likely to be tested in the months ahead. After failing to improve the party's electoral standing, Mr. Najib may well have to face down a leadership challenge from the right flank of his own party. Should he be dispatched in favor of a more polarizing alternative, it would be likely to further inflame racial tensions. Regardless, factional infighting within UMNO runs the risk of holding up further political and economic reform efforts.
Although they won this round, unless the government can find a way to claw back support among disenfranchised ethnic minorities and middle class urbanite voters, they may soon find themselves on the outside looking in.
Conor Salcetti is a freelance journalist currently based out of Bangkok, Thailand. He studied political science at the University of Wisconsin.
Photo: Thomas Timlen (cc).
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Malaysia’s Election: A Hollow Victory
May 10, 2013
Since separating himself from the governing Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in the late 1990s, Anwar Ibrahim has labored relentlessly at the forefront of Malaysia's political opposition movement. After successfully upending the BN's two-thirds parliamentary majority in the landmark 2008 general election, it looked as though 2013 would be the year in which the Anwar-fronted People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat) finally broke through at the ballot box.
That much hoped-for political watershed will now be deferred for at least one more election cycle. After a record turnout last Sunday, the BN emerged with a necessary majority of 133 seats against 89 for the opposition. Although they racked up 7 more seats than in 2008, Anwar and his allies remain well short of a parliamentary majority.
But while Prime Minister Najib gets to keep his job for the time being, in the long run, 2013 may amount to little more than a pyrrhic victory. The election results did little to bridge the growing political chasm between differing segments of Malaysian society. Going forward, the future viability of the ruling coalition is looking more precarious than ever.
For the first time, in spite of all the built-in advantages that comes with decades of unchecked incumbency, the Barisan Nasional failed to secure the popular vote, losing by a decisive 4 percentage points to Pakatan Rakyat. Such a pronounced disparity between the popular vote and the allocation of parliamentary seats lends further credence to studies released in the aftermath of the poll calling into question the legitimacy of the entire electoral process. Critics of the BN maintain they are now only capable of winning elections by gerrymandering electoral districts, relying on a highly partisan mainstream media, and churning out votes through a combination of patronage politics and generous social welfare handouts.
Further complicating matters, the opposition has been aggressively pushing back against the outcome. A mass protest rally held on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur drew a crowd of over 50,000 supporters Wednesday night and Mr. Anwar has made clear that he views the Electoral Commission charged with overseeing the vote as politically compromised.
But assuming the final result holds up under public pressure, the trend lines are nonetheless moving decisively against a continuation of the status quo. After decades of unchallenged rule, the government is now finding it quite difficult to keep up with tectonic shifts in the country's socioeconomic fabric. Cosmopolitan Malays have largely turned against the BN en masse, fed up with state corruption and a rigged political game. The opposition now commands overwhelming support in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, the most prosperous economic engines in the country.
Rising disillusionment with the status quo is further magnified by an exponential increase in the use of social media. Both grassroots activists and savvy politicians alike now utilize platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to circumvent the mainstream media narrative and get their message out. In the country today over half the population has a Facebook account and a majority of young Malaysians turn to the internet instead of television as their primary news source. The proliferation of independent minded online media outlets provides Malays with a platform to shed light on egregious abuses of office, drawing the ire of the general public and raising demands for greater transparency and accountability.
PM Najib and his United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the most powerful faction within Barisan, must now walk a fine line between placating party hardliners and maintaining popular legitimacy amongst a broader general public increasingly fed up with UMNO's traditional brand of ethnocentric politics. UMNO policies designed to favor ethnically Malay bumiputera (sons of the soil) have put the party at cross-purposes with fellow travelers in the BN. While said policies enjoy broad backing amongst rural Malays who form the core base of party support, such overt discrimination is turning away scores of ethnic-Chinese Malaysians from lending their vote to the coalition. Tellingly, the BN-affiliated Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) hemorrhaged support to the opposition alternative Democratic Action Party (DAP) when the votes were tallied up on Sunday.
UMNO's internal cohesion is also likely to be tested in the months ahead. After failing to improve the party's electoral standing, Mr. Najib may well have to face down a leadership challenge from the right flank of his own party. Should he be dispatched in favor of a more polarizing alternative, it would be likely to further inflame racial tensions. Regardless, factional infighting within UMNO runs the risk of holding up further political and economic reform efforts.
Although they won this round, unless the government can find a way to claw back support among disenfranchised ethnic minorities and middle class urbanite voters, they may soon find themselves on the outside looking in.
Conor Salcetti is a freelance journalist currently based out of Bangkok, Thailand. He studied political science at the University of Wisconsin.
Photo: Thomas Timlen (cc).
