International Sports: A New Target for Terrorists?

Against the backdrop of the terrorist attacks that hit Paris in January and November of last year, French officials and outside observers were rightly concerned about this year’s UEFA Euro championships (whose final was Sunday) becoming yet another target. With many thousands of visitors flocking to France’s major cities, these games have been seen as a test as to whether Paris could safely host the 2024 Olympics, for which it is a leading candidate. Given the massive number of spectators and the attractiveness of such targets like the packed “fan zones” to militant groups like the Islamic State, security has been no small challenge. Of course, France is not the only country to face such a predicament. For upcoming sporting events in Brazil, Russia, Japan and South Korea, the possibility of attacks remains a threat. While security at these events will obviously be a top priority, international sporting organizations like the IOC and FIFA many need to be more careful when it comes to holding games in countries with higher threat levels, especially in light of the most recent developing threats. Failure to take necessary precautions could end in tragedy. Why attack international athletics competitions? For groups like the Islamic State, events like the Euros, Olympics, and the World Cup offer a golden opportunity to execute plots on a truly global scale. Groups with grievances against a host country (or a participant) can seize on the influx of foreign visitors to maximize the impact of their operations and reach a global audience in bloody fashion. Such attacks can have significant propaganda value for terrorist groups, a fact established at Munich Olympics in 1972. Targeting Israeli athletes at those Games, Palestinian militants from the Black September Organization took hostage and killed 11. Another bombing incident at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta during the 1996 Summer Olympics resulted in two deaths and injured over a hundred others. The assailant, Eric Robert Rudolph, claimed to have acted in retaliation for the legalization of abortion in the US. With a number of major events on the horizon, the lessons of Munich and Atlanta need to be learned in full. Safety at the upcoming 2016 Rio Olympic Games is already turning into a major concern. Local authorities and the Brazilian government are struggling to make sure security services are adequately funded and equipped to handle events and crowds. Even as Brazil touts its various security precautions, there are doubts about the level of preparedness: doctors and firefighters are threatening to go on strike and police stations lack even basic supplies. The governor of Rio admonished that police cars may run out of gas unless the municipality received funds from the federal government. Hospitals in Rio de Janeiro are similarly underfunded, with some facilities forced to substantially reduce the number of patients admitted and cease conducting various surgeries. While the threat of a terrorist attack in Brazil is perhaps not as immediate as in France (more likely issues are mass protests and crime), Islamic State members recently posted Portuguese-language propaganda on encrypted sites and messaging forums. Brazil is already home to around 100 radicalized Muslims, according to some estimates. The country’s remote borders and abundance of guns could be exploited in any potential plot. Another potential target is the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Both Chechen militants and ISIS, which has hundreds of Chechen members, could see an opportunity to hit Moscow in retaliation for the country’s intervention in Syria. Russia is no stranger to Islamic terrorism, having suffered a number of deadly attacks over the years. This is also not the first time Russia has been preoccupied with securing a major sporting event. In its efforts to prevent an assault at the 2014 Winter Olympics in Syria, Moscow permitted and even facilitated the travel of Russian militants from its Caucasus regions to fight in Syria, calculating they could not threaten the Games if they were not in the country. Nearly 3,000 Russians have gone to fight in the Middle East, particularly with the Islamic State and other extremist groups in Syria and Iraq. There is a constant risk that these individuals could return to Russia and carry out attacks with the fighting experience they have gained abroad. Given the nature of the threat and the problems seen in Russia and Brazil, the IOC and FIFA should place a greater emphasis on host countries’ abilities to secure their events when they decide to award games. While 2018 and 2020 (in which South Korea and Japan host the Winter and Summer Olympics, respectively) should present relatively lower levels of concern, neither country is taking chances. Japanese organizers began reaching out to their British counterparts last year to draw on the successful, safe experience of the 2012 London Games and is also putting together mock hacking exercises to ensure the proceedings are secured against cyberattacks. South Korea’s primary concern, meanwhile, is the constant risk of flare-ups with extreme elements from the North infiltrating the county coupled with internal anti-government protests. Given Japan’s highly-trained security services and experience hosting major events (most recently the G7 summit in Japan in May) without incident, dysfunction on the scale seen in Rio is high unlikely. Tokyo, which hosted the very successful 1964 Olympic Games, the first ever in Asia, has a proven track record of successfully managing major international events. Of course, overreacting to the risks posed by competitions like these carries its own  dangers. Previous events like the Olympics in Sochi and London passed without incident. France devoted vast resources to ensuring the safety of Euro 2016, with around 90,000 security personnel patrolling the events. French police and anti-terrorism forces also conducted around 30 large training exercises simulating terrorist attacks. Even Brazil, with its dearth of resources, is taking security seriously, with around 85,000 security forces expected to secure the 2016 Summer Olympics and also asked for help from the US and other nations with experience in managing such threats. With the Rio Games just weeks away, Brazilian leaders have precious little time to make sure their preparations are in order.   About the author: Frank Maxwell is a Competitive Intelligence Correspondent based in Warsaw, Poland.