To add fuel to the fire, the Obama administration failed to come up with a convincing, unconditional apology to Islamabad, with President Barack Obama himself discounting the possibility of such a gesture on his part. All that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta offered was a joint statement saying they had each spoken to their Pakistani counterparts to express their condolences for the loss of life. There was no word about an apology, thus confirming impression in the Pakistani civilian and military establishments that the Americans don’t care about their once-staunch ally in the war against terror. Pakistan hit back strongly by shutting down the Pakistan-Afghanistan border corridor, which was heavily used by NATO forces in Afghanistan. In fact, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik went on record saying that this cross-border NATO supply route had now been permanently shut for the Americans.
The NATO friendly fire has huge implications for India too, not just Pakistan-US relations. The incident is bound to push Pakistan deeper into the Chinese lap. The Chinese officials have, of late, been describing Pakistan as "their Israel," an obvious reference to the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv. India could have managed with rogue elements in Pakistani military and intelligence establishments helping jihadi forces and propping them against the Americans (with a significant spillover effect for India too), but two nuclear powers (China and Pakistan) joining hands militarily to rebuff the Americans is a frightening scenario for New Delhi.
However, there is nothing much that India can do in this unfolding crisis between Pakistan and the U.S., though New Delhi is going to be affected in a big way. That is because the U.S., though the sole superpower, is a long distance power. The Americans have been acting as a major counterbalancing power in the regional matrix when it comes to India-Pakistan-China. There could be a major impact of U.S.-Pakistan relations steadily going downhill for India. A livid Pakistan can now be expected to go hammer and tongs in aiding and abetting the jihadists to spite the Americans, which will be bad for India.
The key here will lie with China, of course, as it will have to be seen to what extent the Chinese will go in providing succor to their all-weather ally Pakistan. It will not be easy for Beijing to take advantage of the U.S.-Pakistan spat and try to replace the U.S. in Pakistan’s scheme of things. This is because the Chinese will have to assume a leadership role in the volatile region and bear the consequences thereof. As they say, uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
These are the troubled times in India’s backyard, as the already strained U.S.-Pakistan bilateral worsen with each passing day. The moment of reckoning has come for Pakistan in its relations with the United States – and Indian observers are keeping their fingers crossed. The nosedive in U.S.-Pakistan relations has not taken place overnight. A number of things have been building up to this effect in past several months, particularly since the May 2nd Operation Geronimo. A major factor that has riled Pakistan no end is the increased shrillness and bluntness in American leaders’ public statements on Pakistan’s sins of omission and commission on the issue of terrorism. Strongly-worded statements from the American leadership indicate that the U.S.-Pakistan relations are back to the days in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 terror attacks on the American soil when President George Bush had famously asked Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf “Are you with us or with them?” The tensions reached a boil when Hillary Clinton minced no words in warning Pakistan at her joint press conference with Pakistan foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar in Islamabad in October that Pakistan cannot keep snakes in its backyard.
The U.S. wants Pakistan to take concrete action against the Haqqani network that has been working feverishly against the American interests in the Af-Pak region. The Americans have been goading the Pakistan government to launch military action against the Haqqanis sooner rather than later. But the problem is that the Pakistani leadership, particularly the military leadership, has been bluntly refusing to do so, citing military challenges. Pakistan has been expressing its inability to take on the Haqqanis militarily because thousands of its troops are already fighting a grim battle against the Pakistan Taliban and their cohorts in the lawless tribal regions along the Afghanistan border. Clinton pushed the envelope further by suggesting that Pakistan government should force the Haqqanis into peace talks, disclosing that the US has started direct talks with the Haqqani network and already held one round of exploratory talks with them.
In all likelihood, Pakistan’s dithering would continue. The U.S. is no longer pussyfooting; rather, it is dropping enough hints that it is not averse to brinkmanship diplomacy. Pakistan has already tried to play the China card in its standoff with the Americans. China has so far not come out with an overly supportive role for Pakistan.
The deterioration in U.S.-Pakistan relations should make India wary, as the development cannot leave India unscathed. India-Pakistan relations have of late been on a positive trajectory. The 17th SAARC summit in Maldives (November 10-11, 2011) was the most recent demonstration of this India-Pakistan bonhomie where the two sides agreed to move forward. Any upheaval in Pakistan’s domestic politics is bound to put brakes on the India-Pakistan peace process.
Photo: AP/Shakil Adil.
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How Worsening U.S.-Pakistan Ties Can Affect India
December 6, 2011
To add fuel to the fire, the Obama administration failed to come up with a convincing, unconditional apology to Islamabad, with President Barack Obama himself discounting the possibility of such a gesture on his part. All that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta offered was a joint statement saying they had each spoken to their Pakistani counterparts to express their condolences for the loss of life. There was no word about an apology, thus confirming impression in the Pakistani civilian and military establishments that the Americans don’t care about their once-staunch ally in the war against terror. Pakistan hit back strongly by shutting down the Pakistan-Afghanistan border corridor, which was heavily used by NATO forces in Afghanistan. In fact, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik went on record saying that this cross-border NATO supply route had now been permanently shut for the Americans.
The NATO friendly fire has huge implications for India too, not just Pakistan-US relations. The incident is bound to push Pakistan deeper into the Chinese lap. The Chinese officials have, of late, been describing Pakistan as "their Israel," an obvious reference to the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv. India could have managed with rogue elements in Pakistani military and intelligence establishments helping jihadi forces and propping them against the Americans (with a significant spillover effect for India too), but two nuclear powers (China and Pakistan) joining hands militarily to rebuff the Americans is a frightening scenario for New Delhi.
However, there is nothing much that India can do in this unfolding crisis between Pakistan and the U.S., though New Delhi is going to be affected in a big way. That is because the U.S., though the sole superpower, is a long distance power. The Americans have been acting as a major counterbalancing power in the regional matrix when it comes to India-Pakistan-China. There could be a major impact of U.S.-Pakistan relations steadily going downhill for India. A livid Pakistan can now be expected to go hammer and tongs in aiding and abetting the jihadists to spite the Americans, which will be bad for India.
The key here will lie with China, of course, as it will have to be seen to what extent the Chinese will go in providing succor to their all-weather ally Pakistan. It will not be easy for Beijing to take advantage of the U.S.-Pakistan spat and try to replace the U.S. in Pakistan’s scheme of things. This is because the Chinese will have to assume a leadership role in the volatile region and bear the consequences thereof. As they say, uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
These are the troubled times in India’s backyard, as the already strained U.S.-Pakistan bilateral worsen with each passing day. The moment of reckoning has come for Pakistan in its relations with the United States – and Indian observers are keeping their fingers crossed. The nosedive in U.S.-Pakistan relations has not taken place overnight. A number of things have been building up to this effect in past several months, particularly since the May 2nd Operation Geronimo. A major factor that has riled Pakistan no end is the increased shrillness and bluntness in American leaders’ public statements on Pakistan’s sins of omission and commission on the issue of terrorism. Strongly-worded statements from the American leadership indicate that the U.S.-Pakistan relations are back to the days in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 terror attacks on the American soil when President George Bush had famously asked Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf “Are you with us or with them?” The tensions reached a boil when Hillary Clinton minced no words in warning Pakistan at her joint press conference with Pakistan foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar in Islamabad in October that Pakistan cannot keep snakes in its backyard.
The U.S. wants Pakistan to take concrete action against the Haqqani network that has been working feverishly against the American interests in the Af-Pak region. The Americans have been goading the Pakistan government to launch military action against the Haqqanis sooner rather than later. But the problem is that the Pakistani leadership, particularly the military leadership, has been bluntly refusing to do so, citing military challenges. Pakistan has been expressing its inability to take on the Haqqanis militarily because thousands of its troops are already fighting a grim battle against the Pakistan Taliban and their cohorts in the lawless tribal regions along the Afghanistan border. Clinton pushed the envelope further by suggesting that Pakistan government should force the Haqqanis into peace talks, disclosing that the US has started direct talks with the Haqqani network and already held one round of exploratory talks with them.
In all likelihood, Pakistan’s dithering would continue. The U.S. is no longer pussyfooting; rather, it is dropping enough hints that it is not averse to brinkmanship diplomacy. Pakistan has already tried to play the China card in its standoff with the Americans. China has so far not come out with an overly supportive role for Pakistan.
The deterioration in U.S.-Pakistan relations should make India wary, as the development cannot leave India unscathed. India-Pakistan relations have of late been on a positive trajectory. The 17th SAARC summit in Maldives (November 10-11, 2011) was the most recent demonstration of this India-Pakistan bonhomie where the two sides agreed to move forward. Any upheaval in Pakistan’s domestic politics is bound to put brakes on the India-Pakistan peace process.
Photo: AP/Shakil Adil.
