emocratic principles in the political realm look a lot like governance principles for organizations. Democratic nations operate with principles such as rule of law, protected human rights, and the separation/accountability of powers. Well-run organizations have good charters, bylaws, codes of conduct, and cultures that—when integrated with strategy and performance—serve a similar purpose.
Democracy is threatened by autocracy and populism. Good organizational governance, meanwhile, is threatened by poor leadership and the absence of guardrails.
Both democracy and good governance are critical to global wellbeing. People who live in democracies generally have better social, economic, educational, health, and longevity opportunities and outcomes than those in repressive societies. The Global Happiness Index 2023 illustrates how people living in democracies tend to be happier than those living in autocracies.
Democracy is not perfect and the potential to slide toward autocracy or plutocracy is always present (as we are experiencing in many democracies). Yet the last century has proven out Winston Churchill’s famous quote that “democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others”.
So, let’s not make the perfect the enemy of the good. Perfect democracy is hard to define, let alone achieve. But a good, operational democracy exists in many places—as the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Map below shows, distinguishing between four kinds of regimes—from authoritarian and hybrid to flawed and full democracies.
Democracy was not a prevailing form of government until the past 50 years or so. And then waves of democratization occurred in the 1970s (Spain, Portugal, Greece), 1980s (Latin America, former USSR, Eastern Europe), 1990s (Asia and Africa), 2000s (Middle East—Tunisia). But about 17 years ago, the globe experienced a reversal with a rise in authoritarianism, populism, illiberal democracy, and the weakening of key democratic institutions including in long-standing democracies in Europe, the UK, and the U.S. Look at the 17-year decline in democracy tracked by expert think tank Freedom House below.
A closer look at this trajectory reveals a potential silver lining—though it’s too early to be certain. In 2023, Freedom House tracked the fewest instances of democratic decline in 17 years of tracking and quite a few more increases in democracy than we have seen in several years. The powerful example of Ukraine bravely defending its fragile democracy under terrible circumstances (and making it stronger in the process) and that of Iranian girls and women rising against their authoritarian fundamentalist oppressors, just to name two dramatic examples, have certainly provided global inspiration.
Democracy Scenarios for the Next Decade
Given the ongoing global megatrends we are experiencing—with profound geopolitical tectonic change, the rise of stakeholder capitalism, decline in leadership and institutional trust, rise of complex interconnected global risk (including climate change and societal malaise) and truly explosive tech disruption—what does the trajectory of democracy over the next decade look like?
From least to most likely, I propose that the future of democracy over the next decade may look a little like this:
Scenario 1: FRAGILITY—Fragility and Further Decline of Democracy
Democracies overall will continue to decline in quantity. The quality of democracy where it currently exists will continue to deteriorate, especially threatened by disinformation and disruptive tech.
Scenario 2: PROGRESS—Democracy Returns!
Democracy makes a comeback with an appreciable increase in both the number of democracies around the world as well as the rejuvenation of existing democracies, all assisted by new tech and communications tools especially designed to combat disinformation.
Scenario 3: STRUGGLE—Struggle to Maintain the Democratic Line
Existing democracies will be muddling through with patches of internal progress but there will mostly be a struggle to maintain both the quantity and quality of democracy where it exists because of massive and exploding tech driven disinformation and misinformation.
Scenario 4: RESILIENCE—Stakeholders Rise to Rebuild Democracy
Stakeholders in all kinds of regimes – whether more democratic or more autocratic—will increasingly focus on deploying adaptable tech and communications tools to combat autocracy, disinformation and surveillance and maintain and build democracy resilience.
The Resilience Plan for Democracy
Why is the fourth scenario the most likely? This is because we are seeing green shoots worldwide—as evidenced by the work of Freedom House and others—that show that societies that are heavily oppressed (like Iran) and others that are not but are losing their democracy (like the U.S.) are not going to sit still and take it anymore.
As Martin Luther King once said: “the arc of the moral universe is long but it bends towards justice.” Rephrasing this beautiful saying for democracy: “The arc of democratization is very long and full of setbacks, but it bends towards progress if and when societies are purposefully resilient.”
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Future-Proofing Democracy: Four Scenarios and a Plan
Photo by Joseph Chan on Unsplash
May 19, 2023
Democracy is threatened by autocracy and populism while organizational governance is threatened by poor leadership and bad guard railing. Yet global trends suggest that stakeholders in all kind of regimes—not just democracies—are demanding more resilient institutions, writes Andrea Bonime-Blanc.
D
emocratic principles in the political realm look a lot like governance principles for organizations. Democratic nations operate with principles such as rule of law, protected human rights, and the separation/accountability of powers. Well-run organizations have good charters, bylaws, codes of conduct, and cultures that—when integrated with strategy and performance—serve a similar purpose.
Democracy is threatened by autocracy and populism. Good organizational governance, meanwhile, is threatened by poor leadership and the absence of guardrails.
Both democracy and good governance are critical to global wellbeing. People who live in democracies generally have better social, economic, educational, health, and longevity opportunities and outcomes than those in repressive societies. The Global Happiness Index 2023 illustrates how people living in democracies tend to be happier than those living in autocracies.
Democracy is not perfect and the potential to slide toward autocracy or plutocracy is always present (as we are experiencing in many democracies). Yet the last century has proven out Winston Churchill’s famous quote that “democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others”.
So, let’s not make the perfect the enemy of the good. Perfect democracy is hard to define, let alone achieve. But a good, operational democracy exists in many places—as the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Map below shows, distinguishing between four kinds of regimes—from authoritarian and hybrid to flawed and full democracies.
Democracy was not a prevailing form of government until the past 50 years or so. And then waves of democratization occurred in the 1970s (Spain, Portugal, Greece), 1980s (Latin America, former USSR, Eastern Europe), 1990s (Asia and Africa), 2000s (Middle East—Tunisia). But about 17 years ago, the globe experienced a reversal with a rise in authoritarianism, populism, illiberal democracy, and the weakening of key democratic institutions including in long-standing democracies in Europe, the UK, and the U.S. Look at the 17-year decline in democracy tracked by expert think tank Freedom House below.
A closer look at this trajectory reveals a potential silver lining—though it’s too early to be certain. In 2023, Freedom House tracked the fewest instances of democratic decline in 17 years of tracking and quite a few more increases in democracy than we have seen in several years. The powerful example of Ukraine bravely defending its fragile democracy under terrible circumstances (and making it stronger in the process) and that of Iranian girls and women rising against their authoritarian fundamentalist oppressors, just to name two dramatic examples, have certainly provided global inspiration.
Democracy Scenarios for the Next Decade
Given the ongoing global megatrends we are experiencing—with profound geopolitical tectonic change, the rise of stakeholder capitalism, decline in leadership and institutional trust, rise of complex interconnected global risk (including climate change and societal malaise) and truly explosive tech disruption—what does the trajectory of democracy over the next decade look like?
From least to most likely, I propose that the future of democracy over the next decade may look a little like this:
Scenario 1: FRAGILITY—Fragility and Further Decline of Democracy
Democracies overall will continue to decline in quantity. The quality of democracy where it currently exists will continue to deteriorate, especially threatened by disinformation and disruptive tech.
Scenario 2: PROGRESS—Democracy Returns!
Democracy makes a comeback with an appreciable increase in both the number of democracies around the world as well as the rejuvenation of existing democracies, all assisted by new tech and communications tools especially designed to combat disinformation.
Scenario 3: STRUGGLE—Struggle to Maintain the Democratic Line
Existing democracies will be muddling through with patches of internal progress but there will mostly be a struggle to maintain both the quantity and quality of democracy where it exists because of massive and exploding tech driven disinformation and misinformation.
Scenario 4: RESILIENCE—Stakeholders Rise to Rebuild Democracy
Stakeholders in all kinds of regimes – whether more democratic or more autocratic—will increasingly focus on deploying adaptable tech and communications tools to combat autocracy, disinformation and surveillance and maintain and build democracy resilience.
The Resilience Plan for Democracy
Why is the fourth scenario the most likely? This is because we are seeing green shoots worldwide—as evidenced by the work of Freedom House and others—that show that societies that are heavily oppressed (like Iran) and others that are not but are losing their democracy (like the U.S.) are not going to sit still and take it anymore.
As Martin Luther King once said: “the arc of the moral universe is long but it bends towards justice.” Rephrasing this beautiful saying for democracy: “The arc of democratization is very long and full of setbacks, but it bends towards progress if and when societies are purposefully resilient.”
