n late August 2023, the BRICS—a group composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—welcomed as new members Argentina, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. It was the first enlargement since the inclusion of South Africa in 2010.
China pushed for these new accessions, formalized at a summit held in Johannesburg on 22-24 August 2023 with more than 60 representatives from the "Global South." For Beijing, the enlargement is a step toward its broader goal of creating a new world-order alternative to the Western one.
The Middle East is central to this expansion strategy, home to four out of six of the new BRICS members. The implications are manifold. First, U.S.-Saudi ties have deteriorated, notably after President Joe Biden pledged a harder line on Saudi Arabia during the 2020 electoral campaign. The accessions sharpened the division even further.
Second, the United Arab Emirates—the Arab country closest to the U.S. in the Middle East—is trying to diversify its foreign policy strategy, rebalancing its alliances in and outside the region. Increasing cooperation with Russia is crucial for its energy sector while boosting trade and mutual investments with China can advance its economy in other areas, such as artificial intelligence, and space exploration.
Also, the accession of Iran to the BRICS has a significant impact on intra-Middle Eastern diplomacy. The Islamic Republic—currently under U.S. sanctions—is economically isolated from the West, but its ties with the Arab world are changing rapidly. In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to normalize their bilateral relations under the guidance of Chinese diplomacy.
As I wrote for the Diplomatic Courier in July 2023, "Iran's rising integration with the East, the Gulf, and Central Asia will significantly affect its foreign and domestic policies. Prioritizing socio-economic development [has] become a priority for [its] leadership—a goal only achievable by decreasing regional tensions." Entry to BRICS will further speed up this process.
Lastly, Egypt is living through an economic storm with an all-time high inflation rate. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s authoritarian regime aims to receive financial help by joining the BRICS, particularly by attracting new investment and easing its foreign currency shortage.
The Egyptian newspaper Ahram underlined, "The BRICS countries aspire to create an alternative currency for global trade, potentially backed by gold, to lessen reliance on the U.S. dollar for pricing essential commodities in global markets. [...] The dethronement of the dollar could benefit countries like Egypt, which has faced a critical shortage of U.S. dollars for about a year and a half."
China and Russia will push for creating an increasingly politicized group hostile to the United States. However, leaders of some BRICS members—such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva—tried to downplay the group's anti-Western purposes. He stated, "We [the BRICS] do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States".
Helena Legarda, a lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, recently said, "Without a shared ideology and clear overarching goal, it is likely that the addition of six new members may instead make BRICS a more divided group."
Regarding the role of India, she also added that, "While India does have good relations with all of the new BRICS members, China's deep pockets and its ability to fill the post-American vacuum, especially in the Middle East, would mean that China will be able to influence the institution far more than India could."
The situation is similarly complex from an economic perspective. In fact, the BRICS’ new joiners can be divided into two groups. The first one—composed of oil-rich, internationally integrated Saudi Arabia and the UAE—will expand BRICS global financial influence, particularly during a period of energy instability.
Conversely, Iran, Egypt, and Argentina are economically isolated or unstable, or under sanctions, which means the benefits they can bring to the group are extremely limited.
About Argentina, for example, Bruno Binetti, Ph.D. candidate at the London School of Economics, wrote, "For the Fernández administration, entering BRICS is an opportunity to cement Argentina's diplomatic status and find alternative sources of financing, such as the New Development Bank (or BRICS bank)."
Overall, the goal of de-dollarizing the international economy seems far to be achieved, at least in the short term. According to some experts, a BRICS currency is not credible due to the bloc members’ different levels of development, openness of financial markets, and management of their current currencies.
Also, China aimed to exert political pressure on the U.S. with the BRICS enlargement. The benefits Beijing can achieve seem very limited, as do the real threats it can pose to Washington's national security. Moreover, it is possible that if the BRICS agenda becomes too radical, some more neutral members might consider leaving the group, particularly India.
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Bigger BRICS, Middle East Consequences
Daytime view of Cairo, Egypt. Egypt is one of the newest members of BRICS. Image by DEZALB from Pixabay
September 27, 2023
The expansion of BRICS to include six more countries from the Global South could be a step toward creating a new world-order alternative to Western institutions. Yet internal divisions and relations with the West could limit what BRICS can achieve, writes DC Correspondent Elia Preto Martini.
I
n late August 2023, the BRICS—a group composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—welcomed as new members Argentina, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. It was the first enlargement since the inclusion of South Africa in 2010.
China pushed for these new accessions, formalized at a summit held in Johannesburg on 22-24 August 2023 with more than 60 representatives from the "Global South." For Beijing, the enlargement is a step toward its broader goal of creating a new world-order alternative to the Western one.
The Middle East is central to this expansion strategy, home to four out of six of the new BRICS members. The implications are manifold. First, U.S.-Saudi ties have deteriorated, notably after President Joe Biden pledged a harder line on Saudi Arabia during the 2020 electoral campaign. The accessions sharpened the division even further.
Second, the United Arab Emirates—the Arab country closest to the U.S. in the Middle East—is trying to diversify its foreign policy strategy, rebalancing its alliances in and outside the region. Increasing cooperation with Russia is crucial for its energy sector while boosting trade and mutual investments with China can advance its economy in other areas, such as artificial intelligence, and space exploration.
Also, the accession of Iran to the BRICS has a significant impact on intra-Middle Eastern diplomacy. The Islamic Republic—currently under U.S. sanctions—is economically isolated from the West, but its ties with the Arab world are changing rapidly. In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to normalize their bilateral relations under the guidance of Chinese diplomacy.
As I wrote for the Diplomatic Courier in July 2023, "Iran's rising integration with the East, the Gulf, and Central Asia will significantly affect its foreign and domestic policies. Prioritizing socio-economic development [has] become a priority for [its] leadership—a goal only achievable by decreasing regional tensions." Entry to BRICS will further speed up this process.
Lastly, Egypt is living through an economic storm with an all-time high inflation rate. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s authoritarian regime aims to receive financial help by joining the BRICS, particularly by attracting new investment and easing its foreign currency shortage.
The Egyptian newspaper Ahram underlined, "The BRICS countries aspire to create an alternative currency for global trade, potentially backed by gold, to lessen reliance on the U.S. dollar for pricing essential commodities in global markets. [...] The dethronement of the dollar could benefit countries like Egypt, which has faced a critical shortage of U.S. dollars for about a year and a half."
China and Russia will push for creating an increasingly politicized group hostile to the United States. However, leaders of some BRICS members—such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva—tried to downplay the group's anti-Western purposes. He stated, "We [the BRICS] do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States".
Helena Legarda, a lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, recently said, "Without a shared ideology and clear overarching goal, it is likely that the addition of six new members may instead make BRICS a more divided group."
Regarding the role of India, she also added that, "While India does have good relations with all of the new BRICS members, China's deep pockets and its ability to fill the post-American vacuum, especially in the Middle East, would mean that China will be able to influence the institution far more than India could."
The situation is similarly complex from an economic perspective. In fact, the BRICS’ new joiners can be divided into two groups. The first one—composed of oil-rich, internationally integrated Saudi Arabia and the UAE—will expand BRICS global financial influence, particularly during a period of energy instability.
Conversely, Iran, Egypt, and Argentina are economically isolated or unstable, or under sanctions, which means the benefits they can bring to the group are extremely limited.
About Argentina, for example, Bruno Binetti, Ph.D. candidate at the London School of Economics, wrote, "For the Fernández administration, entering BRICS is an opportunity to cement Argentina's diplomatic status and find alternative sources of financing, such as the New Development Bank (or BRICS bank)."
Overall, the goal of de-dollarizing the international economy seems far to be achieved, at least in the short term. According to some experts, a BRICS currency is not credible due to the bloc members’ different levels of development, openness of financial markets, and management of their current currencies.
Also, China aimed to exert political pressure on the U.S. with the BRICS enlargement. The benefits Beijing can achieve seem very limited, as do the real threats it can pose to Washington's national security. Moreover, it is possible that if the BRICS agenda becomes too radical, some more neutral members might consider leaving the group, particularly India.
