fter a year where social distancing and Zoom fatigue became everyday phrases, a variety of vaccines were thought to promise the end of the coronavirus pandemic. For the first time since the pandemic began, cases have been declining in every region of the world; as Axios reports, the only number that has been rising is the number of vaccine doses administered worldwide. However, with a potential end to the pandemic in sight, a new element of this crisis threatens to jeopardize global progress thus far: viral variants.
Though the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, has been mutating all along, three recent mutations have given scientists pause. This past fall, the UK identified a variant known as B.1.1.7, and the mutation has since become the dominant strain in Britain and spread to over 50 different countries. A South African variant known as B.1.351 was first discovered in October 2020 and has since spread to at least 20 other countries. And in Japan, a variant known as P.1 was discovered during an airport screening of travelers from Brazil in early January 2021.
Early evidence regarding the danger of these new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been mixed. All three of the variants—British, South African, and Brazilian—could be more contagious than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. One pre-print study of the B.1.1.7 variant from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates that the variant is 56% more contagious than the original viral strain. Additional research from Imperial College London found that B.1.1.7’s viral reproduction—the average number of people infected by a person sick with a given virus—was 1.45. Before the variant emerged, that number was .92. The South African variant is also thought to be more contagious.
According to Professor Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist and a co-chair of the South African health ministry’s scientific committee, the B.1.351 variant is 50% more contagious than the original novel coronavirus. Lastly, the Brazilian variant contains a mutation known as N501Y also found in the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 mutations that enable the virus’s spike protein to bind more easily to human cells, suggesting that the P1 variant is also more contagious.
The severity of each of the three known SARS-CoV-2 variants is still somewhat unknown. There is no evidence yet that suggests that either the South African variant or the Brazilian variant are more deadly than the original virus that causes COVID-19. Recent data from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, however, suggests that the British variant may be deadlier than the original coronavirus. Their pre-print analysis of the B.1.1.7 mutation found that patients infected with the variant were 35% more likely to die than those infected with the original disease. In absolute terms, this means that a 75-year-old man, considered to have a 5% chance of dying from the original virus, has a 6% chance of dying if infected with the B.1.1.7 variant instead. For men 85 years or older, the risk of dying jumps from about 17% to 22%. However, it is worth noting that this specific analysis from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has not yet been peer reviewed, and much research is still needed to determine the exact risk posed by the B.1.1.7 variant.
Dr. Susan Hopkins, a researcher at Public Health England, told the BBC that there was “evidence from some but not all data sources” that suggested that the British variant was more deadly than the non-variant. Ultimately, much work is still needed to verify the specific risk posed by all three variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Aside from potential changes in contagion and risk of death, many have expressed concern over the variant’s possible effects on the vaccines. For now, scientists remain optimistic that the original vaccines will still protect against all three variants, though perhaps the immunizations will not perform as well as they had in clinical trials against the original virus. Early data suggests that the Pfizer vaccine can still protect against the new variants, though the doses are “slightly less effective.” Similarly, early data from Moderna suggests that their vaccine is still effective against the South African variant, though the immune response may not be as strong as that mounted to prevent infection from the original disease. However, South Africa had to suspend its national rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after a clinical trial revealed that the immunizations failed to prevent mild or moderate cases of COVID-19 caused by the B.1.351 variant. Though the suspension was a blow to South Africa, even if the existing vaccines are outpaced by variants such as the B.1.351, they can be adapted to fight new forms of SARS-CoV-2. Some vaccines, specifically those made by AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna, can be “redesigned in a relatively straightforward manner” in the event that existing immunizations are ineffective against the variants.
Ultimately, though the variants have thrown a wrench into policymakers’ hopes of getting past this crisis anytime soon, it’s not too late for states to act. In the U.S., for example, the variants pose an imperative to begin more widespread genetic sequencing to track the presence of COVID-19 mutations within the country. Additionally, states should once again enact travel restrictions, if they haven’t already, to limit the spread of the variants from countries where they were discovered. Lastly, countries need to continue to be diligent about requiring masking and social distancing in public spaces. On an individual level, people should upgrade to better masks, opting for N95 masks or doubled-up cloth masks when possible. By amping up genetic sequencing, reimplementing travel bans, and upgrading masks, states can best defend themselves against the rapidly changing virus that will continue to wreak havoc in 2021.
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As the End of the Pandemic Nears, Viral Variants Pose Potential New Threats
Image Credit: NIAID.
February 15, 2021
A
fter a year where social distancing and Zoom fatigue became everyday phrases, a variety of vaccines were thought to promise the end of the coronavirus pandemic. For the first time since the pandemic began, cases have been declining in every region of the world; as Axios reports, the only number that has been rising is the number of vaccine doses administered worldwide. However, with a potential end to the pandemic in sight, a new element of this crisis threatens to jeopardize global progress thus far: viral variants.
Though the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, has been mutating all along, three recent mutations have given scientists pause. This past fall, the UK identified a variant known as B.1.1.7, and the mutation has since become the dominant strain in Britain and spread to over 50 different countries. A South African variant known as B.1.351 was first discovered in October 2020 and has since spread to at least 20 other countries. And in Japan, a variant known as P.1 was discovered during an airport screening of travelers from Brazil in early January 2021.
Early evidence regarding the danger of these new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been mixed. All three of the variants—British, South African, and Brazilian—could be more contagious than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. One pre-print study of the B.1.1.7 variant from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates that the variant is 56% more contagious than the original viral strain. Additional research from Imperial College London found that B.1.1.7’s viral reproduction—the average number of people infected by a person sick with a given virus—was 1.45. Before the variant emerged, that number was .92. The South African variant is also thought to be more contagious.
According to Professor Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist and a co-chair of the South African health ministry’s scientific committee, the B.1.351 variant is 50% more contagious than the original novel coronavirus. Lastly, the Brazilian variant contains a mutation known as N501Y also found in the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 mutations that enable the virus’s spike protein to bind more easily to human cells, suggesting that the P1 variant is also more contagious.
The severity of each of the three known SARS-CoV-2 variants is still somewhat unknown. There is no evidence yet that suggests that either the South African variant or the Brazilian variant are more deadly than the original virus that causes COVID-19. Recent data from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, however, suggests that the British variant may be deadlier than the original coronavirus. Their pre-print analysis of the B.1.1.7 mutation found that patients infected with the variant were 35% more likely to die than those infected with the original disease. In absolute terms, this means that a 75-year-old man, considered to have a 5% chance of dying from the original virus, has a 6% chance of dying if infected with the B.1.1.7 variant instead. For men 85 years or older, the risk of dying jumps from about 17% to 22%. However, it is worth noting that this specific analysis from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has not yet been peer reviewed, and much research is still needed to determine the exact risk posed by the B.1.1.7 variant.
Dr. Susan Hopkins, a researcher at Public Health England, told the BBC that there was “evidence from some but not all data sources” that suggested that the British variant was more deadly than the non-variant. Ultimately, much work is still needed to verify the specific risk posed by all three variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Aside from potential changes in contagion and risk of death, many have expressed concern over the variant’s possible effects on the vaccines. For now, scientists remain optimistic that the original vaccines will still protect against all three variants, though perhaps the immunizations will not perform as well as they had in clinical trials against the original virus. Early data suggests that the Pfizer vaccine can still protect against the new variants, though the doses are “slightly less effective.” Similarly, early data from Moderna suggests that their vaccine is still effective against the South African variant, though the immune response may not be as strong as that mounted to prevent infection from the original disease. However, South Africa had to suspend its national rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after a clinical trial revealed that the immunizations failed to prevent mild or moderate cases of COVID-19 caused by the B.1.351 variant. Though the suspension was a blow to South Africa, even if the existing vaccines are outpaced by variants such as the B.1.351, they can be adapted to fight new forms of SARS-CoV-2. Some vaccines, specifically those made by AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna, can be “redesigned in a relatively straightforward manner” in the event that existing immunizations are ineffective against the variants.
Ultimately, though the variants have thrown a wrench into policymakers’ hopes of getting past this crisis anytime soon, it’s not too late for states to act. In the U.S., for example, the variants pose an imperative to begin more widespread genetic sequencing to track the presence of COVID-19 mutations within the country. Additionally, states should once again enact travel restrictions, if they haven’t already, to limit the spread of the variants from countries where they were discovered. Lastly, countries need to continue to be diligent about requiring masking and social distancing in public spaces. On an individual level, people should upgrade to better masks, opting for N95 masks or doubled-up cloth masks when possible. By amping up genetic sequencing, reimplementing travel bans, and upgrading masks, states can best defend themselves against the rapidly changing virus that will continue to wreak havoc in 2021.
