n 25 February 2023, Nigeria held general elections to choose President Muhammadu Buhari's successor and members of its House of Representatives and Senate. Nigeria, one of the largest countries with free—but not fair—elections in Africa and worldwide, has a population of 213 million and is composed of several ethnic and religious groups.
Since the end of military rule in 1999, only two candidates have generally competed in the presidential race. This year, however, three contenders participated in the elections: Bola Tinubu from the left-wing All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar from the right-wing Peoples Democratic Party, and Peter Obi from Labour Party.
The latter, a businessman and former governor of the state of Anambra in southern Nigeria, attracted the interest of international media because of his non-traditional party affiliation. According to the New York Times, Obi succeeded in energizing the young population—Nigeria has a very low median age of 17 years old. However, he failed to win the elections, obtaining an insufficient 25% of the votes.
The electoral campaign focused on some crucial domestic issues. First, police brutality, corruption, and kidnappings are common traits of the country's public life. Also, most youths are unemployed or underemployed, with many talented individuals forced to leave Nigeria and search for opportunities abroad—the so-called "brain drain" phenomenon.
Lastly, the country's macroeconomic scenario is concerning. Last year, Nigeria recorded an inflation rate higher than 20% with a drastic increase in food prices. The previous government of Muhammadu Buhari also failed to introduce newly designed banknotes, enormously restricting cash circulation.
Against this backdrop, candidates competed to get at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the country's 36 states and in the capital Abuja, as provided for in the electoral system. Some of the keywords of the electoral campaign were "joy," "peace," and "unity," underling a genuine desire for change, especially among the youth.
After the vote, counting was very slow. Bola Tinubu, from the incumbent president's same party, the All Progressives Congress, was declared the winner despite the opposition's contestations. They argued that there had been an election fraud associated with manipulating some devices used for the first-ever electronic vote in Nigerian history.
On 2 March 2023, candidate Peter Obi refused to concede the loss and declared: "I urge Nigerians to remain resolute. We won this election, and we will prove it to Nigerians. We shall reclaim our mandate via due process. Please do not despair." According to Nigerian law, candidates can contest the election result within 21 days after the results are announced.
Immediately after, six Nigerian states accused the electoral commission of failing to follow the electoral law properly, asking the Supreme Court to void the result. In order to reinforce elections legitimacy, Nigeria hosted some independent commission, including one from the European Union and another from the Commonwealth of Nations.
Even if the US independent observers raised concerns about vote fraud, the US Department of State on 1 March 2023 congratulated "President-elect Tinubu" and praised this "competitive election [which] represents a new period for Nigerian politics and democracy." Also, Chinese President Xi Jinping saluted Tinubu on his election. It is widely known that these kinds of statements strongly influence electoral disputes in favor of candidates declared winners.
President-elect Tinubu, if confirmed in his role, will immediately face short and long-term issues. First, the 25 February 2023 general elections have harmed public trust in institutions, especially among the opposition voters, and it needs to be rebuilt. Second, after a decade of economic turmoil, the government must provide adequate answers, especially for the people who voted massively for Peter Obi, the so-called "Obidients."
Finally, Tinubu must prioritize the fight against domestic insecurity, a problem strictly interconnected with widespread poverty, terrorism, weaknesses of the judicial system, and corruption. Many of these problems are structural and require decades-long actions to overcome, so early signs of change are needed more than ever.
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After Nigeria’s Election, What’s Next for its President?
March 15, 2023
Africa's largest democracy, Nigeria, held elections last month which appear to have been influenced by electoral fraud. President-elect Tinubu faces a host of short- and long-term challenges, not least of which are questions over his legitimacy, writes Elia Preto Martini.
O
n 25 February 2023, Nigeria held general elections to choose President Muhammadu Buhari's successor and members of its House of Representatives and Senate. Nigeria, one of the largest countries with free—but not fair—elections in Africa and worldwide, has a population of 213 million and is composed of several ethnic and religious groups.
Since the end of military rule in 1999, only two candidates have generally competed in the presidential race. This year, however, three contenders participated in the elections: Bola Tinubu from the left-wing All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar from the right-wing Peoples Democratic Party, and Peter Obi from Labour Party.
The latter, a businessman and former governor of the state of Anambra in southern Nigeria, attracted the interest of international media because of his non-traditional party affiliation. According to the New York Times, Obi succeeded in energizing the young population—Nigeria has a very low median age of 17 years old. However, he failed to win the elections, obtaining an insufficient 25% of the votes.
The electoral campaign focused on some crucial domestic issues. First, police brutality, corruption, and kidnappings are common traits of the country's public life. Also, most youths are unemployed or underemployed, with many talented individuals forced to leave Nigeria and search for opportunities abroad—the so-called "brain drain" phenomenon.
Lastly, the country's macroeconomic scenario is concerning. Last year, Nigeria recorded an inflation rate higher than 20% with a drastic increase in food prices. The previous government of Muhammadu Buhari also failed to introduce newly designed banknotes, enormously restricting cash circulation.
Against this backdrop, candidates competed to get at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the country's 36 states and in the capital Abuja, as provided for in the electoral system. Some of the keywords of the electoral campaign were "joy," "peace," and "unity," underling a genuine desire for change, especially among the youth.
After the vote, counting was very slow. Bola Tinubu, from the incumbent president's same party, the All Progressives Congress, was declared the winner despite the opposition's contestations. They argued that there had been an election fraud associated with manipulating some devices used for the first-ever electronic vote in Nigerian history.
On 2 March 2023, candidate Peter Obi refused to concede the loss and declared: "I urge Nigerians to remain resolute. We won this election, and we will prove it to Nigerians. We shall reclaim our mandate via due process. Please do not despair." According to Nigerian law, candidates can contest the election result within 21 days after the results are announced.
Immediately after, six Nigerian states accused the electoral commission of failing to follow the electoral law properly, asking the Supreme Court to void the result. In order to reinforce elections legitimacy, Nigeria hosted some independent commission, including one from the European Union and another from the Commonwealth of Nations.
Even if the US independent observers raised concerns about vote fraud, the US Department of State on 1 March 2023 congratulated "President-elect Tinubu" and praised this "competitive election [which] represents a new period for Nigerian politics and democracy." Also, Chinese President Xi Jinping saluted Tinubu on his election. It is widely known that these kinds of statements strongly influence electoral disputes in favor of candidates declared winners.
President-elect Tinubu, if confirmed in his role, will immediately face short and long-term issues. First, the 25 February 2023 general elections have harmed public trust in institutions, especially among the opposition voters, and it needs to be rebuilt. Second, after a decade of economic turmoil, the government must provide adequate answers, especially for the people who voted massively for Peter Obi, the so-called "Obidients."
Finally, Tinubu must prioritize the fight against domestic insecurity, a problem strictly interconnected with widespread poverty, terrorism, weaknesses of the judicial system, and corruption. Many of these problems are structural and require decades-long actions to overcome, so early signs of change are needed more than ever.
