f the seven general elections being held this year across the Western Hemisphere, two stand out: The cases of El Salvador’s consolidation of single–party and strongman rule and Venezuela’s attempt to reinstate democracy. While the elections appear very different, they have considerable ramifications for the future of democracy and show two sides of a familiar story.
In El Salvador, Nayib Bukele won elections in a landslide. His popularity is hardly surprising given the precipitous decline in crime that El Salvador has seen under his leadership. However, the self–proclaimed “World’s Coolest Dictator” achieved this result through draconian crackdowns on gangs and mass incarceration—a move that has drawn criticism from human rights activists. He also ignored constitutional term limits to seek reelection and has used his popularity to erode democratic safeguards. Bukele even marched the military into the legislature in 2020 as a show of force in attempting to pass laws. While his popularity remains high, these actions raise real concerns for the future of democracy in the country.
Conversely, Venezuela’s election pitted unpopular autocrat Nicolas Maduro, facing an economic downturn and sanctions against a unified opposition. While there is abundant evidence that the opposition won with over 60% of the vote, Maduro claims to have won and has unleashed a crackdown on dissent. Despite domestic and international pressure, Maduro clings to power, showing how hard it is to uproot an autocrat once they take hold of all elements of the state. However, like Bukele, Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez, also began as a popular leader promising transformational change. Unfortunately, Chavez too erased term limits and concentrated power in the executive. His slow erosion of democratic norms in the country—which deepened under Maduro—directly led to today’s crisis.
Venezuela and El Salvador tell two ends of the same tale. In El Salvador, we see a popular strongman eroding democratic norms to deliver the promise of a new nation. In Venezuela, we see how the story ends—a corrupt autocrat holding on to power in face of overwhelming dissatisfaction and popular will. Venezuela should serve as a cautionary tale and highlight the challenge of uprooting dictators once they have embedded themselves within the state. But can the regional community address democratic erosion before it’s too late?
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A prologue to tragedy in El Salvador?
The Palacio Nacional de El Salvador. Photo by Luis Rodriguez on Unsplash
September 12, 2024
The landslide reelection of El Salvador President Nayib Bukele this year is no triumph of democracy. Instead, it’s a worrying sign El Salvador may be walking in Venezuela’s footsteps, writes Adam Ratzlaff.
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f the seven general elections being held this year across the Western Hemisphere, two stand out: The cases of El Salvador’s consolidation of single–party and strongman rule and Venezuela’s attempt to reinstate democracy. While the elections appear very different, they have considerable ramifications for the future of democracy and show two sides of a familiar story.
In El Salvador, Nayib Bukele won elections in a landslide. His popularity is hardly surprising given the precipitous decline in crime that El Salvador has seen under his leadership. However, the self–proclaimed “World’s Coolest Dictator” achieved this result through draconian crackdowns on gangs and mass incarceration—a move that has drawn criticism from human rights activists. He also ignored constitutional term limits to seek reelection and has used his popularity to erode democratic safeguards. Bukele even marched the military into the legislature in 2020 as a show of force in attempting to pass laws. While his popularity remains high, these actions raise real concerns for the future of democracy in the country.
Conversely, Venezuela’s election pitted unpopular autocrat Nicolas Maduro, facing an economic downturn and sanctions against a unified opposition. While there is abundant evidence that the opposition won with over 60% of the vote, Maduro claims to have won and has unleashed a crackdown on dissent. Despite domestic and international pressure, Maduro clings to power, showing how hard it is to uproot an autocrat once they take hold of all elements of the state. However, like Bukele, Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez, also began as a popular leader promising transformational change. Unfortunately, Chavez too erased term limits and concentrated power in the executive. His slow erosion of democratic norms in the country—which deepened under Maduro—directly led to today’s crisis.
Venezuela and El Salvador tell two ends of the same tale. In El Salvador, we see a popular strongman eroding democratic norms to deliver the promise of a new nation. In Venezuela, we see how the story ends—a corrupt autocrat holding on to power in face of overwhelming dissatisfaction and popular will. Venezuela should serve as a cautionary tale and highlight the challenge of uprooting dictators once they have embedded themselves within the state. But can the regional community address democratic erosion before it’s too late?
