n February 2023, the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan gathered a group of companies, including some from Iran, Russia, and Pakistan, to promote a new investment plan focused on infrastructure, mining, and power.
In response to the press asking for more details, the acting minister of commerce and industry of Afghanistan, Nooruddin Azizi, said his government aims to boost economic projects estimated at $1 billion. The foreign companies involved will be allowed to monitor the progress on the field constantly. Russia will play both the role of investor and contractor.
Since seizing power in the summer of 2021, the Taliban have been trying to save the country's economy with a double-goals strategy. On one side, they adopted a self-sufficiency strategy. As stated by Azizi earlier this year: "We will start a national self-sufficiency program, we will encourage all government administrations to use domestic products, we will also try to encourage people through mosques to support our domestic products."
On the other side, the government is seeking international investment, especially turning former foreign military bases into special economic zones (SEZs). China already signed a deal of about $150 million in February to extract oil from the Amu Darya basin, while others will probably come in the following months.
Seven months ago, Moscow signed a deal with Kabul to supply oil, gasoline, and wheat to Afghanistan. This agreement offered the Taliban-led administration the chance to buy basic needs at a price below the world average. The Kremlin, however, does not officially recognize the Taliban government, even if some reports underlined that it might do it shortly.
Despite appearances, relations between the two countries remain rather ambiguous. Moscow is, in fact, worried about the recent terrorist attacks that affected the country. In particular, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province, affiliated with ISIS, is conducting activities against the Taliban and foreign interference.
In late 2022, a suicide attack against the Russian embassy in Kabul killed about 8-10 people. According to Reuters, it was carried out by Islamic State-Khorasan Province, which claimed responsibility in its official Telegram account. Afghanistan's insecurity hinders normalizing diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, including Russia.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine affected these diplomatic relations in Central Asia and raised questions about Moscow's hegemony. The so-called "Stan" countries had strong labor migration and export ties with the Eurasian giant, but they hesitated to support Putin's military campaign against Kyiv. Among civil society, Central Asian people have a negative view of the invasion.
The Taliban has remained neutral regarding Ukraine–Russia conflict, officially calling for "restraint by both sides." This statement reflects their non-aligned foreign policy after seizing power in 2021. Also, according to Scott Worden from the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), the invasion of Ukraine has helped them because it turned the international community's attention to Afghanistan's human rights violations elsewhere.
All these events explain why countries in the post-Soviet space are looking for new alliances and economic opportunities, particularly those from China. A decade ago, Beijing started a penetration process with its multi-billion infrastructure project, the "Belt and Road Initiative," announced in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan. Since then, China has developed its interests spanning from investment to buying oil and gas.
China has particular interests in the Afghani mining sector, estimated to be worth billions of dollars. It was never entirely exploited by the previous governments due to security concerns, but the current Taliban-led administration pledged to overcome the stalemate. To date, however, Chinese investment in the country has been far less than the Taliban expected.
In conclusion, Russia will still play a significant military and political role in Central Asia. However, it should be aware that its Chinese ally (and competitor) also wants to increase its influence in the same area. The invasion of Ukraine has pushed the Kremlin into a precarious position, mainly because of its growing international isolation.
Russia's domestic economy, highly reliant on energy exports, is dramatically suffering the burden of economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other allies. However, establishing new relationships with the Taliban or other Asian countries will never balance this loss of global relevance.
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A New Geopolitical Axis in Central Asia?
Photo by Mohammad Husaini on Unsplash
April 21, 2023
The Taliban-led Afghanistan is clearly seeking to strengthen ties with Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China. This has led to some concern that a new geopolitical axis of geopolitical outliers may be forming in Central Asia, but those concerns are largely overstated, writes Elia Preto Martini.
I
n February 2023, the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan gathered a group of companies, including some from Iran, Russia, and Pakistan, to promote a new investment plan focused on infrastructure, mining, and power.
In response to the press asking for more details, the acting minister of commerce and industry of Afghanistan, Nooruddin Azizi, said his government aims to boost economic projects estimated at $1 billion. The foreign companies involved will be allowed to monitor the progress on the field constantly. Russia will play both the role of investor and contractor.
Since seizing power in the summer of 2021, the Taliban have been trying to save the country's economy with a double-goals strategy. On one side, they adopted a self-sufficiency strategy. As stated by Azizi earlier this year: "We will start a national self-sufficiency program, we will encourage all government administrations to use domestic products, we will also try to encourage people through mosques to support our domestic products."
On the other side, the government is seeking international investment, especially turning former foreign military bases into special economic zones (SEZs). China already signed a deal of about $150 million in February to extract oil from the Amu Darya basin, while others will probably come in the following months.
Seven months ago, Moscow signed a deal with Kabul to supply oil, gasoline, and wheat to Afghanistan. This agreement offered the Taliban-led administration the chance to buy basic needs at a price below the world average. The Kremlin, however, does not officially recognize the Taliban government, even if some reports underlined that it might do it shortly.
Despite appearances, relations between the two countries remain rather ambiguous. Moscow is, in fact, worried about the recent terrorist attacks that affected the country. In particular, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province, affiliated with ISIS, is conducting activities against the Taliban and foreign interference.
In late 2022, a suicide attack against the Russian embassy in Kabul killed about 8-10 people. According to Reuters, it was carried out by Islamic State-Khorasan Province, which claimed responsibility in its official Telegram account. Afghanistan's insecurity hinders normalizing diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, including Russia.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine affected these diplomatic relations in Central Asia and raised questions about Moscow's hegemony. The so-called "Stan" countries had strong labor migration and export ties with the Eurasian giant, but they hesitated to support Putin's military campaign against Kyiv. Among civil society, Central Asian people have a negative view of the invasion.
The Taliban has remained neutral regarding Ukraine–Russia conflict, officially calling for "restraint by both sides." This statement reflects their non-aligned foreign policy after seizing power in 2021. Also, according to Scott Worden from the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), the invasion of Ukraine has helped them because it turned the international community's attention to Afghanistan's human rights violations elsewhere.
All these events explain why countries in the post-Soviet space are looking for new alliances and economic opportunities, particularly those from China. A decade ago, Beijing started a penetration process with its multi-billion infrastructure project, the "Belt and Road Initiative," announced in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan. Since then, China has developed its interests spanning from investment to buying oil and gas.
China has particular interests in the Afghani mining sector, estimated to be worth billions of dollars. It was never entirely exploited by the previous governments due to security concerns, but the current Taliban-led administration pledged to overcome the stalemate. To date, however, Chinese investment in the country has been far less than the Taliban expected.
In conclusion, Russia will still play a significant military and political role in Central Asia. However, it should be aware that its Chinese ally (and competitor) also wants to increase its influence in the same area. The invasion of Ukraine has pushed the Kremlin into a precarious position, mainly because of its growing international isolation.
Russia's domestic economy, highly reliant on energy exports, is dramatically suffering the burden of economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other allies. However, establishing new relationships with the Taliban or other Asian countries will never balance this loss of global relevance.
