he year 2024 is a “super election year,” which will see 64 countries—home to over half of the world population and an estimated 2 billion voters—participate in the democratic ritual to select leaders at national, subnational, and local government levels in general and presidential elections. Sixteen of these elections will be in Africa, double the number of elections in 2023. This volume of electoral contests in Africa in 2024 is unprecedented, truly historic, and globally meaningful. For some time now, analysts have been decrying the global decline of democratization, the rise of the Right and resurgent authoritarianism. The African elements of this super–election year will offer a critical window into the global trends around democratic consolidation and authoritarian resurgence.
However, beyond the common denominator of staging elections in 2024, there is enormous variation across sizes of countries, levels of democratization and perceptions around the integrity of the electoral process. In some instances, like in Russia, Syria, and Rwanda, these elections are dead rubbers whose outcome is foregone, while in others, there will be some close contests like those expected in the United Kingdom and the U.S.
The U.S. election will be exciting to watch because of the Trump–Biden rematch and its importance for the country’s position in world leadership, but it’s hardly a bellwether. A true sense of the direction of political winds globally will be provided by elections elsewhere. This will especially be the case in countries that are emerging from conflict and coups, like Pakistan and Mali, which had military coups in 2021 and whose election date is undetermined at the moment, and countries that appeared to be consolidating democracy, such as Senegal, which until recently had been faring well across democracy indices but has also had its election postponed from February to an undetermined time.
The elections in Africa will test the continent and its people's commitment to elections and democratization. In 2023, elections in Nigeria, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, among others, were disputed at various levels, with Gabon's disputes leading to a military coup, Nigeria's disputes having to be resolved by the courts, and Zimbabwe's disputes leading to a legitimacy crisis and the ruling party escalating efforts at decimating the main opposition political party.
This super–election year offers Africa an opportunity to redeem the continent’s democratic credentials and demonstrate whether the continent is trending towards entrenched comparatively authoritarian regimes with politicized militaries as stakeholders in political settlements, or towards consolidating democracy and free and fair elections. For the former, countries that experienced revolutions and coups recently, like Tunisia, Mali, Somaliland, South Sudan, and Chad, will be instructive. All of these countries except Tunisia will be especially interesting to watch as they are located in West Africa and the Sahel region, which recently emerged as “coup central,” with nine military coups taking place since 2021. The region is a political powder keg, replete with instability. As Gabon showed in 2023, electoral disputes and a public outcry against dynasties can quickly increase instability, leading to coups and military takeovers. Gabon is also a cautionary tale for the election in Togo, which is home to Africa's longest–running political dynasty, having been led by the Gnassingbé's at the presidential level since 1967.
For evidence of support for democratic consolidation, look to Ghana, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, and South Africa. All of these countries except for South Africa will be staging open–seat elections at the presidential level, with incumbents not on anticipated presidential ballots. South Africa is of interest for both symbolic and substantive reasons. Symbolically, South Africans take to the polls 30 years after the end of Apartheid, and with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) facing its sternest test yet, with some polls predicting that it will be hard for the ANC to poll a majority this time around. The challenge the ANC faces as a liberation movement is similar to the ones faced by fellow ruling liberation movements in Namibia, Mozambique, and Botswana. All these countries have had one party in power since independence, and it will be interesting to see whether constituents in these countries are finally ready to vote at scale for other parties that are not liberation organizations.
The outcomes and integrity of these elections and attendant responses to inevitable disputes will both show the prevailing winds of elections and democracy, and determine whether Africa continues to be an electoral and democratic backwater or shows itself as the new hope for efficacy of elections and the resurgence of democracy.
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What the 2024 ‘Super Election’ year in Africa will reveal
Bortianor, Ghana. General elections will be held in Ghana in December 2024. Photo by Jeffrey Ofori on Unsplash
February 28, 2024
In this “super election year,” 16 African states will hold elections. Their outcomes will help determine whether the continent redeems its democratic credentials after a tough 2023, or whether it is trending toward entrenched authoritarianism, writes Accountability Lab’s Dr. McDonald Lewanika.
T
he year 2024 is a “super election year,” which will see 64 countries—home to over half of the world population and an estimated 2 billion voters—participate in the democratic ritual to select leaders at national, subnational, and local government levels in general and presidential elections. Sixteen of these elections will be in Africa, double the number of elections in 2023. This volume of electoral contests in Africa in 2024 is unprecedented, truly historic, and globally meaningful. For some time now, analysts have been decrying the global decline of democratization, the rise of the Right and resurgent authoritarianism. The African elements of this super–election year will offer a critical window into the global trends around democratic consolidation and authoritarian resurgence.
However, beyond the common denominator of staging elections in 2024, there is enormous variation across sizes of countries, levels of democratization and perceptions around the integrity of the electoral process. In some instances, like in Russia, Syria, and Rwanda, these elections are dead rubbers whose outcome is foregone, while in others, there will be some close contests like those expected in the United Kingdom and the U.S.
The U.S. election will be exciting to watch because of the Trump–Biden rematch and its importance for the country’s position in world leadership, but it’s hardly a bellwether. A true sense of the direction of political winds globally will be provided by elections elsewhere. This will especially be the case in countries that are emerging from conflict and coups, like Pakistan and Mali, which had military coups in 2021 and whose election date is undetermined at the moment, and countries that appeared to be consolidating democracy, such as Senegal, which until recently had been faring well across democracy indices but has also had its election postponed from February to an undetermined time.
The elections in Africa will test the continent and its people's commitment to elections and democratization. In 2023, elections in Nigeria, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, among others, were disputed at various levels, with Gabon's disputes leading to a military coup, Nigeria's disputes having to be resolved by the courts, and Zimbabwe's disputes leading to a legitimacy crisis and the ruling party escalating efforts at decimating the main opposition political party.
This super–election year offers Africa an opportunity to redeem the continent’s democratic credentials and demonstrate whether the continent is trending towards entrenched comparatively authoritarian regimes with politicized militaries as stakeholders in political settlements, or towards consolidating democracy and free and fair elections. For the former, countries that experienced revolutions and coups recently, like Tunisia, Mali, Somaliland, South Sudan, and Chad, will be instructive. All of these countries except Tunisia will be especially interesting to watch as they are located in West Africa and the Sahel region, which recently emerged as “coup central,” with nine military coups taking place since 2021. The region is a political powder keg, replete with instability. As Gabon showed in 2023, electoral disputes and a public outcry against dynasties can quickly increase instability, leading to coups and military takeovers. Gabon is also a cautionary tale for the election in Togo, which is home to Africa's longest–running political dynasty, having been led by the Gnassingbé's at the presidential level since 1967.
For evidence of support for democratic consolidation, look to Ghana, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, and South Africa. All of these countries except for South Africa will be staging open–seat elections at the presidential level, with incumbents not on anticipated presidential ballots. South Africa is of interest for both symbolic and substantive reasons. Symbolically, South Africans take to the polls 30 years after the end of Apartheid, and with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) facing its sternest test yet, with some polls predicting that it will be hard for the ANC to poll a majority this time around. The challenge the ANC faces as a liberation movement is similar to the ones faced by fellow ruling liberation movements in Namibia, Mozambique, and Botswana. All these countries have had one party in power since independence, and it will be interesting to see whether constituents in these countries are finally ready to vote at scale for other parties that are not liberation organizations.
The outcomes and integrity of these elections and attendant responses to inevitable disputes will both show the prevailing winds of elections and democracy, and determine whether Africa continues to be an electoral and democratic backwater or shows itself as the new hope for efficacy of elections and the resurgence of democracy.
