lthough Russia and Iran are neither allies nor strategic partners, the two countries continue developing close military cooperation. In order to protect itself from the Russian missile and drone strikes, Ukraine seeks to reach defense deals with Israel—the Islamic Republic’s archenemy. But is the Jewish state ready to jeopardize its relations with the Kremlin and start providing Kyiv with modern air defense systems?
Following Russian strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, the Eastern European country’s leadership has asked several NATO members to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces to create an anti-aircraft shield. The United States, Spain, and Norway have already supplied Kyiv with NASAMS and Aspide air defense systems, but in order to protect itself, Ukraine needs more weapons. The war-torn nation has sent Israel the official request for air defense systems such as Iron Beam, Barak-8, Patriot, Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow Interceptor.
Russia, on the other hand, has warned Israel that it will retaliate if the Jewish state sends defensive weapons to Ukraine. Although Israeli officials said that they will not supply weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Kyiv seems to be pressuring Israel to reconsider its decision. According to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, “there are secrets that Israel cannot share with Ukraine.” His statement suggests that the Jewish state is unlikely to supply Ukraine with the Arrow-3 missile shield that the Israeli and the U.S. militaries secretly tested in 2019. That, however, does not mean that Israel cannot provide a limited military assistance to Kyiv.
The Jewish state could send some weapons to Ukraine, without publically confirming such an operation. Given that it took months for Iran to admit that it has provided Russia with drones, it is not improbable that Israel and Ukraine could implement the same strategy. Reports suggest that Israel is already selling anti-drone systems to Ukraine, and its future military cooperation will likely depend on Russian-Iranian actions.
Iran is reportedly seeking Russia’s help to bolster its nuclear program. Such announcements could be a message to Israel to start arming Ukraine in order to create a counterbalance, and possibly prevent the Kremlin from developing nuclear cooperation with Tehran. It is entirely possible that Israel also fears that Russia could provide Iran with modern air-defense systems, as well as aircraft. Moscow, on the other hand, would have a hard time achieving its military goals in Ukraine if Israel eventually decides to supply Kyiv with air-defense systems. Thus, both the Kremlin and the Jewish state seek to use the weapon supply issue as a threat, while in reality the two nations likely aim to preserve the status quo in their relations. At least for now.
In 2015, Russia and Israel reportedly reached a deal over Syria: Israel pledged to guarantee the safety of Russian citizens and military installations in Syria during its strikes on Iranian militias and Syrian Arab Army’s targets. In return, Moscow promised not to use S-400 air defense missiles to repel Israeli attacks. More importantly, despite a Iranian request, to this day Russia has not provided S-400 to Iran. In 2019, Moscow refused to sell sophisticated weapons to Tehran, concerned that the sale would “stoke more tension in the Middle East.”
Still, Russia’s National Security Council secretary, Nikolai Patrushev, visited Tehran on 9 November 2022 to hold talks on security matters with Iranian officials amid growing military ties with the Islamic Republic. Rumors are flying that Russia plans to buy ballistic missiles from Iran, as well as more drones. From the Israeli perspective, the more unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) Iran sells to Russia, the fewer drones it will send to its proxies in the Middle East. It is not a secret that Iranian-made UAVs contain western components which means that, if the West impose additional sanctions on Tehran, Iran may not be in a position to preserve the current level of drone production.
Hypothetically, Iranian-made drones that Russia is presently using in Ukraine can eventually be used by Tehran’s proxies against Israel. According to Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, Israeli military spokesman, the suicide drone attack in Ukraine had raised new concerns in Israel.
“We’re looking at it closely and thinking about how these can be used by the Iranians toward Israeli population centers,” he stressed.
Thus, from Israel’s defense policy’s perspective, it would make sense to provide Ukraine with air-defense systems to test their effectiveness in the Eastern European country,rather than at home. Still, such a sensitive issue is a matter of political decision. At this point, it remains unclear if Israel is ready to risk worsening relations with the Kremlin, despite the fact that Moscow has demonstrated a serious weakness in Ukraine.
For Israel, military cooperation with Russia in Syria still remains very important, given that Russian Armed Forces effectively control Syria’s airspace. Also, dozens of influential Russian oligarchs have close ties with the Jewish state, and many of them hold Israeli passports. On the other hand, some Ukrainian oligarchs also hold Israeli passports, and under the current geopolitical circumstances the Israeli government will almost certainly seek to strengthen bilateral relations with Ukraine. That is why the incoming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly said that his country has “sympathy for Ukraine.”
The Kremlin allegedly hopes that Netanyahu’s recent election victory means that Israel will definitely not help Ukraine. However, given Russia’s extremely weak positions in the global arena, there is no guarantee that the Jewish state will not eventually decide to engage in large-scale military cooperation with Ukraine.
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Will Israel Start Arming Ukraine?
Jerusalem, Israel. Photo by Taylor Brandon via Unsplash.
November 17, 2022
Ukraine is hoping to reach new deals with Israel to provide defensive armaments in a bid to to protect itself from the Russian missile and drone strikes. However, in order to do so, Israel would have to be prepared to to jeopardize relations with Russia, writes Nikola Mikovic.
A
lthough Russia and Iran are neither allies nor strategic partners, the two countries continue developing close military cooperation. In order to protect itself from the Russian missile and drone strikes, Ukraine seeks to reach defense deals with Israel—the Islamic Republic’s archenemy. But is the Jewish state ready to jeopardize its relations with the Kremlin and start providing Kyiv with modern air defense systems?
Following Russian strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, the Eastern European country’s leadership has asked several NATO members to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces to create an anti-aircraft shield. The United States, Spain, and Norway have already supplied Kyiv with NASAMS and Aspide air defense systems, but in order to protect itself, Ukraine needs more weapons. The war-torn nation has sent Israel the official request for air defense systems such as Iron Beam, Barak-8, Patriot, Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow Interceptor.
Russia, on the other hand, has warned Israel that it will retaliate if the Jewish state sends defensive weapons to Ukraine. Although Israeli officials said that they will not supply weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Kyiv seems to be pressuring Israel to reconsider its decision. According to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, “there are secrets that Israel cannot share with Ukraine.” His statement suggests that the Jewish state is unlikely to supply Ukraine with the Arrow-3 missile shield that the Israeli and the U.S. militaries secretly tested in 2019. That, however, does not mean that Israel cannot provide a limited military assistance to Kyiv.
The Jewish state could send some weapons to Ukraine, without publically confirming such an operation. Given that it took months for Iran to admit that it has provided Russia with drones, it is not improbable that Israel and Ukraine could implement the same strategy. Reports suggest that Israel is already selling anti-drone systems to Ukraine, and its future military cooperation will likely depend on Russian-Iranian actions.
Iran is reportedly seeking Russia’s help to bolster its nuclear program. Such announcements could be a message to Israel to start arming Ukraine in order to create a counterbalance, and possibly prevent the Kremlin from developing nuclear cooperation with Tehran. It is entirely possible that Israel also fears that Russia could provide Iran with modern air-defense systems, as well as aircraft. Moscow, on the other hand, would have a hard time achieving its military goals in Ukraine if Israel eventually decides to supply Kyiv with air-defense systems. Thus, both the Kremlin and the Jewish state seek to use the weapon supply issue as a threat, while in reality the two nations likely aim to preserve the status quo in their relations. At least for now.
In 2015, Russia and Israel reportedly reached a deal over Syria: Israel pledged to guarantee the safety of Russian citizens and military installations in Syria during its strikes on Iranian militias and Syrian Arab Army’s targets. In return, Moscow promised not to use S-400 air defense missiles to repel Israeli attacks. More importantly, despite a Iranian request, to this day Russia has not provided S-400 to Iran. In 2019, Moscow refused to sell sophisticated weapons to Tehran, concerned that the sale would “stoke more tension in the Middle East.”
Still, Russia’s National Security Council secretary, Nikolai Patrushev, visited Tehran on 9 November 2022 to hold talks on security matters with Iranian officials amid growing military ties with the Islamic Republic. Rumors are flying that Russia plans to buy ballistic missiles from Iran, as well as more drones. From the Israeli perspective, the more unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) Iran sells to Russia, the fewer drones it will send to its proxies in the Middle East. It is not a secret that Iranian-made UAVs contain western components which means that, if the West impose additional sanctions on Tehran, Iran may not be in a position to preserve the current level of drone production.
Hypothetically, Iranian-made drones that Russia is presently using in Ukraine can eventually be used by Tehran’s proxies against Israel. According to Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, Israeli military spokesman, the suicide drone attack in Ukraine had raised new concerns in Israel.
“We’re looking at it closely and thinking about how these can be used by the Iranians toward Israeli population centers,” he stressed.
Thus, from Israel’s defense policy’s perspective, it would make sense to provide Ukraine with air-defense systems to test their effectiveness in the Eastern European country,rather than at home. Still, such a sensitive issue is a matter of political decision. At this point, it remains unclear if Israel is ready to risk worsening relations with the Kremlin, despite the fact that Moscow has demonstrated a serious weakness in Ukraine.
For Israel, military cooperation with Russia in Syria still remains very important, given that Russian Armed Forces effectively control Syria’s airspace. Also, dozens of influential Russian oligarchs have close ties with the Jewish state, and many of them hold Israeli passports. On the other hand, some Ukrainian oligarchs also hold Israeli passports, and under the current geopolitical circumstances the Israeli government will almost certainly seek to strengthen bilateral relations with Ukraine. That is why the incoming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly said that his country has “sympathy for Ukraine.”
The Kremlin allegedly hopes that Netanyahu’s recent election victory means that Israel will definitely not help Ukraine. However, given Russia’s extremely weak positions in the global arena, there is no guarantee that the Jewish state will not eventually decide to engage in large-scale military cooperation with Ukraine.
