or years, Russia indicated that it intended a full–scale invasion of Ukraine. Many commentators, however, disregarded that eventuality, even in the days leading up to 24 February 2022. Then Russia invaded.
When authoritarian leaders make bold claims that seem impossible, unlikely, or even just undesirable to the rest of the world, public voices often are quick to discount, downplay, or ignore those claims. While some such leaders are prone to bark but unable to actually bite, others should not be written off so quickly. For no state is that more the case than the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
In 1999, two senior officers in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force—part of China’s armed forces—published a book titled “Unrestricted Warfare.” In it, they diagnosed the main vulnerability of the United States and its allies as seeing military advancement and dominance only through technology. They argued that there are at least 11 different forms of “non–kinetic” warfare that can be waged in an effort to “win without fighting.” By not recognizing the military value of things like smuggling warfare, drug warfare, development aid warfare and international law warfare, the U.S. and its allies are blind to key tools for obtaining military victory without firing any weapons.
In 2003, the PLA adopted the “Three Warfares Doctrine” formally incorporating Public Opinion Warfare, Psychological Warfare and Legal Warfare as key pillars of its military operations. After more than two decades, it is clear that China has been deploying all 11 forms of non–kinetic warfare, none more so than the three it enshrined as doctrine in 2003. PRC has not been hiding its approach. So why are we surprised?
In 2010, a statement in a PRC internal Joint Task Force Report regarding the use of the distant water fishing fleet expressly stated: “occupying brings about rights and interests.” Since 2010, the distant water fleet has been used to make territorial claims against other states, to undermine the sovereignty of other states, and to gain control of regional fisheries management organizations. China appears to be trying to own the oceans by a concept similar to adverse possession. But they said they were going to do that. So why are we surprised?
For several years now, China, along with Russia, Brazil and other states in the growing “BRICS” block, has been toying with the possibility of establishing a “BRICS trade currency” backed by gold. Experts in gold flows—both legitimate and illicit—confirm that no country has been amassing more gold than China. But other key states in the mix are Russia and India, as well as key producers like Brazil and the newest BRICS member, South Africa. At the BRICS 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russian President Vladimir Putin focused his remarks on “de-weaponizing” the dollar rather than de-dollarizing the economy, but he waved a prototype of the “the Unit,” a would-be BRICS currency. Given the level of sanctions imposed on the Russian economy as well as key Russian individuals, de-weaponizing the dollar may mean finding an alternative means of engaging in trade.
No decision was taken in Kazan, but following the Summit, everyone should be watching closely whether concrete steps will be taken toward seriously launching either a currency, or some other gold–linked settlement mechanism designed to diminish the dominance of the U.S. dollar and allow for trade to occur outside the parameters of the regulated global system. China is already a leading economic player in the legitimate global economy—second only to the United States—and plays a major role in both the illicit and sanctioned global economies. While Russia may be the one making the most noise about an alternative currency, it is China that could make it a reality. Beyond being a manifestation of the Sino-Russo “friendship without limits,” this may be viewed by China as a means of increasing its global hegemony and a useful step in its overall aim to change the world order. Will we be surprised again?
a global affairs media network
We cannot fail to take China at its word on a BRICS currency
Photo by Haugenzhays Zhang via Pexels.
October 28, 2024
When authoritarian leaders make bold claims that seem impossible, unlikely, or even just undesirable to the rest of the world, public voices often are quick to discount, downplay, or ignore those claims. Don't make that mistake with China, writes Dr. Ian M. Ralby.
F
or years, Russia indicated that it intended a full–scale invasion of Ukraine. Many commentators, however, disregarded that eventuality, even in the days leading up to 24 February 2022. Then Russia invaded.
When authoritarian leaders make bold claims that seem impossible, unlikely, or even just undesirable to the rest of the world, public voices often are quick to discount, downplay, or ignore those claims. While some such leaders are prone to bark but unable to actually bite, others should not be written off so quickly. For no state is that more the case than the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
In 1999, two senior officers in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force—part of China’s armed forces—published a book titled “Unrestricted Warfare.” In it, they diagnosed the main vulnerability of the United States and its allies as seeing military advancement and dominance only through technology. They argued that there are at least 11 different forms of “non–kinetic” warfare that can be waged in an effort to “win without fighting.” By not recognizing the military value of things like smuggling warfare, drug warfare, development aid warfare and international law warfare, the U.S. and its allies are blind to key tools for obtaining military victory without firing any weapons.
In 2003, the PLA adopted the “Three Warfares Doctrine” formally incorporating Public Opinion Warfare, Psychological Warfare and Legal Warfare as key pillars of its military operations. After more than two decades, it is clear that China has been deploying all 11 forms of non–kinetic warfare, none more so than the three it enshrined as doctrine in 2003. PRC has not been hiding its approach. So why are we surprised?
In 2010, a statement in a PRC internal Joint Task Force Report regarding the use of the distant water fishing fleet expressly stated: “occupying brings about rights and interests.” Since 2010, the distant water fleet has been used to make territorial claims against other states, to undermine the sovereignty of other states, and to gain control of regional fisheries management organizations. China appears to be trying to own the oceans by a concept similar to adverse possession. But they said they were going to do that. So why are we surprised?
For several years now, China, along with Russia, Brazil and other states in the growing “BRICS” block, has been toying with the possibility of establishing a “BRICS trade currency” backed by gold. Experts in gold flows—both legitimate and illicit—confirm that no country has been amassing more gold than China. But other key states in the mix are Russia and India, as well as key producers like Brazil and the newest BRICS member, South Africa. At the BRICS 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russian President Vladimir Putin focused his remarks on “de-weaponizing” the dollar rather than de-dollarizing the economy, but he waved a prototype of the “the Unit,” a would-be BRICS currency. Given the level of sanctions imposed on the Russian economy as well as key Russian individuals, de-weaponizing the dollar may mean finding an alternative means of engaging in trade.
No decision was taken in Kazan, but following the Summit, everyone should be watching closely whether concrete steps will be taken toward seriously launching either a currency, or some other gold–linked settlement mechanism designed to diminish the dominance of the U.S. dollar and allow for trade to occur outside the parameters of the regulated global system. China is already a leading economic player in the legitimate global economy—second only to the United States—and plays a major role in both the illicit and sanctioned global economies. While Russia may be the one making the most noise about an alternative currency, it is China that could make it a reality. Beyond being a manifestation of the Sino-Russo “friendship without limits,” this may be viewed by China as a means of increasing its global hegemony and a useful step in its overall aim to change the world order. Will we be surprised again?
