.
Asia is in for a rough ride over the next few years.
U.S. foreign policy in Asia under President Obama—known as “the rebalance”—focused on shoring up the foundations of the U.S. role in the region and strengthening the rules and institutions that have underwritten peace and stability for decades. But under a President Donald Trump administration, this progress could quickly unravel.
While there are many challenges to the United States in Asia, the Obama administration’s rebalance policy was intended to secure U.S. interests for the long-term in the face of the changing landscape. Despite serious obstacles, it has made significant progress.
Negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, for example, was an attempt to write trade rules that would protect American interests and values. Meanwhile, bolstering alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and others enhanced the region’s security structure, and engaging with regional institutions like ASEAN invested in the construction of stronger regional norms and mechanisms to enforce those norms. Finally, the Obama administration’s focus on building comprehensive ties with countries like China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia helped America catch up with changing times and shifting regional dynamics.
However, with a Donald Trump presidency all of this progress is at risk. The challenges confronting the United States in Asia combined with President Trump’s dangerously uninformed attitude towards the region are a recipe for disaster.
The threats are serious. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are advancing. China’s risk tolerance to pursue control of the South China Sea is rising. China’s economic influence in Asia is growing as a force for political influence. Traditional U.S. allies in the Philippines and Thailand are taking an authoritarian turn, threatening the alliances.
Based on his history, campaign rhetoric, and actions since the election, Mr. Trump’s policy instincts and lack of understanding of the issues in Asia are a dangerous combination for U.S. interests in the region, from alliances to Taiwan to North Korea to upholding U.S. values.
U.S. alliances are the cornerstone of security in Asia, and yet Mr. Trump repeatedly throughout the campaign criticized U.S. allies. He has articulated an approach to U.S. allies in Asia and elsewhere akin to a protection racket, squeezing more money from America’s closest friends in order for America to live up to its existing treaty obligations. This is dangerous because it undermines the deterrence that underpins regional stability in Asia and Europe.
Another piece of the puzzle of regional stability has been the modus operandi in Asia on Taiwan that benefits everyone, including protecting Taiwanese prosperity and security. But Mr. Trump has already undermined that stability with his conversation with Taiwan President Tsai-ing wen and his comments questioning the One China policy. Mr. Trump’s treatment of Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China is dangerous for the United States, Taiwan, and Asia.
Meanwhile, as North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have grown, Mr. Trump has veered between a willingness to talk to North Korea, to try to get China to exert its leverage, to encouraging Japan and South Korea to obtain nuclear weapons to deter North Korea. This unpredictability means he either has no plan, or is reckless, either of which undermines the efficacy of the U.S. deterrence as well as coordination with allies.
U.S. support for democracy and human rights is at the core of American foreign policy, and yet in his phone call with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte after the election Mr. Trump reportedly voiced his support for the war against drugs unleashed by the Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte that is drawing widespread concern for human rights abuses.
In just about every area of tension and difficulty for U.S. policy in Asia, Mr. Trump’s instincts would exacerbate tensions and threats to U.S. interests. If Mr. Trump continues down the path he has signaled, U.S. policy in Asia would not only undo the progress made by the Obama administration—it very well could undo the progress made by administrations of both parties over the last 75 years.
About the author: Mike Fucsh is an Asia-Pacific expert at Dūcō and a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, directing U.S. policy on the South China Sea, regional security issues, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.
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U.S.-Asia Relations in a Trump Administration
Shanghai skyline cityscape Aerial view of shanghai shanghai lujiazui finance and business district trade zone skyline Shanghai China
January 28, 2017
Asia is in for a rough ride over the next few years.
U.S. foreign policy in Asia under President Obama—known as “the rebalance”—focused on shoring up the foundations of the U.S. role in the region and strengthening the rules and institutions that have underwritten peace and stability for decades. But under a President Donald Trump administration, this progress could quickly unravel.
While there are many challenges to the United States in Asia, the Obama administration’s rebalance policy was intended to secure U.S. interests for the long-term in the face of the changing landscape. Despite serious obstacles, it has made significant progress.
Negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, for example, was an attempt to write trade rules that would protect American interests and values. Meanwhile, bolstering alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and others enhanced the region’s security structure, and engaging with regional institutions like ASEAN invested in the construction of stronger regional norms and mechanisms to enforce those norms. Finally, the Obama administration’s focus on building comprehensive ties with countries like China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia helped America catch up with changing times and shifting regional dynamics.
However, with a Donald Trump presidency all of this progress is at risk. The challenges confronting the United States in Asia combined with President Trump’s dangerously uninformed attitude towards the region are a recipe for disaster.
The threats are serious. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are advancing. China’s risk tolerance to pursue control of the South China Sea is rising. China’s economic influence in Asia is growing as a force for political influence. Traditional U.S. allies in the Philippines and Thailand are taking an authoritarian turn, threatening the alliances.
Based on his history, campaign rhetoric, and actions since the election, Mr. Trump’s policy instincts and lack of understanding of the issues in Asia are a dangerous combination for U.S. interests in the region, from alliances to Taiwan to North Korea to upholding U.S. values.
U.S. alliances are the cornerstone of security in Asia, and yet Mr. Trump repeatedly throughout the campaign criticized U.S. allies. He has articulated an approach to U.S. allies in Asia and elsewhere akin to a protection racket, squeezing more money from America’s closest friends in order for America to live up to its existing treaty obligations. This is dangerous because it undermines the deterrence that underpins regional stability in Asia and Europe.
Another piece of the puzzle of regional stability has been the modus operandi in Asia on Taiwan that benefits everyone, including protecting Taiwanese prosperity and security. But Mr. Trump has already undermined that stability with his conversation with Taiwan President Tsai-ing wen and his comments questioning the One China policy. Mr. Trump’s treatment of Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China is dangerous for the United States, Taiwan, and Asia.
Meanwhile, as North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have grown, Mr. Trump has veered between a willingness to talk to North Korea, to try to get China to exert its leverage, to encouraging Japan and South Korea to obtain nuclear weapons to deter North Korea. This unpredictability means he either has no plan, or is reckless, either of which undermines the efficacy of the U.S. deterrence as well as coordination with allies.
U.S. support for democracy and human rights is at the core of American foreign policy, and yet in his phone call with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte after the election Mr. Trump reportedly voiced his support for the war against drugs unleashed by the Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte that is drawing widespread concern for human rights abuses.
In just about every area of tension and difficulty for U.S. policy in Asia, Mr. Trump’s instincts would exacerbate tensions and threats to U.S. interests. If Mr. Trump continues down the path he has signaled, U.S. policy in Asia would not only undo the progress made by the Obama administration—it very well could undo the progress made by administrations of both parties over the last 75 years.
About the author: Mike Fucsh is an Asia-Pacific expert at Dūcō and a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, directing U.S. policy on the South China Sea, regional security issues, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.
