n 14 May 2023, Turkey will hold its highly anticipated presidential elections. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to extend his ruling position after 20 years of government. The stakes for Turkey are very high, and a leadership change will affect several domestic and international issues. Some observers and commentators have declared that the election will represent a "crossroad" for the country's future.
Erdoğan has played a crucial role in Turkey's constant decline in civil liberties and political freedoms. The Democracy Index for the period 2006-2021 underlines that "[Turkey] has recorded a big decline in its total score over the past decade, roughly mirroring the increasingly autocratic rule of its strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan." For example, in 2017, he promoted—and succeeded in passing—a constitutional reform that expanded the president's powers.
The May 2023 elections will certainly not be fair and transparent, but it is impossible to predict how far the president could go to pursue reelection. The possible outcomes span from a de facto coup or electoral fraud to conceding defeat. What is certain is that Erdoğan can exploit his political network and the media to influence voters. In late 2022, the parliament approved a new law providing imprisonment of up to three years for those who spread fake news, thus limiting the free press.
In the last few months, the strongest opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu from the Republican People's Party (CHP), has been indicted for insulting public officials and banned from politics. Imamoglu reacted to the conviction by declaring, "[the] verdict is an attack on the will of millions of Istanbulites who democratically elected a mayor for their city three years ago." However, according to Bülent Arınç, a well-known member of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the sentence will increase Imamoglu's popularity.
In addition to the attempts to marginalize political rivalries and suppress freedom of speech, the Turkish president mobilized state resources to increase public consent. He recently promoted a series of expensive reforms, such as abolishing the retirement age requirement. The first estimates suggest that it will allow more than two million citizens to retire immediately, with a cost of $5.3 billion only in the first year. The reform will have a high price in the long run, exacerbating intra-generational disparities.
The Turkish elections are also a crucial turning point in geopolitical terms. The country has a strategic position between Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. It is a NATO ally, too—even if its government frequently came at odds with other Atlantic alliance members, more recently with Greece over the Aegean dispute. Furthermore, Turkey vetoed Finland and Sweden from joining NATO and bought Russian-made missile defense systems with dangerous security consequences.
During the electoral campaign, Erdoğan will reiterate his role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to increase consensus at home and revitalize his role abroad. In fact, he succeeded in reaching a deal between Moscow and Kyiv for grain transfer, but he ultimately failed in his higher objective of mediating a peace deal, at least for now. Earlier this year, the Turkish president tried to talk with Vladimir Putin again and negotiate with the two sides with poor results.
Though unlikely, a change in Turkish leadership could improve relations with Western allies. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it remained the most neutral NATO country towards Moscow, avoiding canceling flights or imposing sanctions. Also, the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, welcomed sanctions-hit Russian oligarchs as investors or tourists. These foreign policy choices reflect the strong bilateral ties that president Vladimir Putin has built with Erdoğan over the years. Kyiv and Moscow will closely monitor this election at a time when a peace agreement seems increasingly remote.
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Turkey’s Pivotal Elections for Domestic Issues, Ukraine
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Photo by Meriç Dağlı on Unsplash
February 3, 2023
Turkey is at a crossroads as it approaches its May election. Not only will President Erdoğan attempt to once again extend his ruling position and quash internal dissent, but the election will set the table for Turkey's role in the Ukraine war. High stakes indeed, writes Elia Preto Martini.
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n 14 May 2023, Turkey will hold its highly anticipated presidential elections. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to extend his ruling position after 20 years of government. The stakes for Turkey are very high, and a leadership change will affect several domestic and international issues. Some observers and commentators have declared that the election will represent a "crossroad" for the country's future.
Erdoğan has played a crucial role in Turkey's constant decline in civil liberties and political freedoms. The Democracy Index for the period 2006-2021 underlines that "[Turkey] has recorded a big decline in its total score over the past decade, roughly mirroring the increasingly autocratic rule of its strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan." For example, in 2017, he promoted—and succeeded in passing—a constitutional reform that expanded the president's powers.
The May 2023 elections will certainly not be fair and transparent, but it is impossible to predict how far the president could go to pursue reelection. The possible outcomes span from a de facto coup or electoral fraud to conceding defeat. What is certain is that Erdoğan can exploit his political network and the media to influence voters. In late 2022, the parliament approved a new law providing imprisonment of up to three years for those who spread fake news, thus limiting the free press.
In the last few months, the strongest opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu from the Republican People's Party (CHP), has been indicted for insulting public officials and banned from politics. Imamoglu reacted to the conviction by declaring, "[the] verdict is an attack on the will of millions of Istanbulites who democratically elected a mayor for their city three years ago." However, according to Bülent Arınç, a well-known member of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the sentence will increase Imamoglu's popularity.
In addition to the attempts to marginalize political rivalries and suppress freedom of speech, the Turkish president mobilized state resources to increase public consent. He recently promoted a series of expensive reforms, such as abolishing the retirement age requirement. The first estimates suggest that it will allow more than two million citizens to retire immediately, with a cost of $5.3 billion only in the first year. The reform will have a high price in the long run, exacerbating intra-generational disparities.
The Turkish elections are also a crucial turning point in geopolitical terms. The country has a strategic position between Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. It is a NATO ally, too—even if its government frequently came at odds with other Atlantic alliance members, more recently with Greece over the Aegean dispute. Furthermore, Turkey vetoed Finland and Sweden from joining NATO and bought Russian-made missile defense systems with dangerous security consequences.
During the electoral campaign, Erdoğan will reiterate his role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to increase consensus at home and revitalize his role abroad. In fact, he succeeded in reaching a deal between Moscow and Kyiv for grain transfer, but he ultimately failed in his higher objective of mediating a peace deal, at least for now. Earlier this year, the Turkish president tried to talk with Vladimir Putin again and negotiate with the two sides with poor results.
Though unlikely, a change in Turkish leadership could improve relations with Western allies. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it remained the most neutral NATO country towards Moscow, avoiding canceling flights or imposing sanctions. Also, the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, welcomed sanctions-hit Russian oligarchs as investors or tourists. These foreign policy choices reflect the strong bilateral ties that president Vladimir Putin has built with Erdoğan over the years. Kyiv and Moscow will closely monitor this election at a time when a peace agreement seems increasingly remote.
