ince the de-facto coup of 2021, with which President Kais Saied dissolved the parliament and abandoned the constitution, Tunisia has plunged into an ongoing economic and political crisis. His government has failed to adequately respond to the significant challenges that affect the country, such as the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In late February 2023, Saied made a fierce speech against foreign communities residing in Tunisia, particularly those from Sub-Saharan Africa. He stated these people were involved in a conspiracy to transform the country's demographic composition and ethnic-religious heritage, which is predominantly Arab-Muslim.
He said "hordes of irregular migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa" had come to Tunisia "with all the violence, crime, and unacceptable practices that entail." The African Union, a continental union including 55 African member states, contested his position, registering "deep shock and concern at the form and substance."
Saied uses migration as a scapegoat to distract public opinion from the country's economic problems. Tunisia suffers from structural issues, such as high youth unemployment and low wages, exacerbated by the domestic political crisis. In February, inflation reached 11%, further damaging the population's purchasing power.
According to United Nations data, 12,000 people departing from Tunisia have arrived in Italy, compared to 1,300 in the same period of 2022. Many are from the Sub-Saharan region and decided to leave after Saied’s crackdown on foreign communities. Some told Al Jazeera, "We live in hell; when we go out, they catch us and put us in jail. They have prepared a special prison for sub-Saharan Africans; when they catch you, they send you there."
This situation alarmed the European Union, particularly Italy, which was proactive in pushing for a solution to Tunisia's instability. Rome's fears are strictly connected to the migrant crisis of 2015 that undermined its socio-political stability. In mid-April 2023, the Italian government pledged investments in Tunisia, while Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani sought continued mediation between Tunisia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Under the U.S. and EU push, IMF representatives are trying to mediate with their Tunisian counterparts. On the table, there is a $1.9 billion loan already discussed among the European Union foreign ministers in March 2023. Tunisia's bailout has been stalled for several months now.
The IMF demanded economic and political reforms from the government, such as removing subsidies on basic goods and fuels. Saied refused this condition, stating, "It's true that some people who don't need subsidies benefit from them, but we can find other ways to make sure they get to those who deserve them."
Saied’s populist rhetoric aims to galvanize the segments of the population most susceptible to nationalist propaganda. Regarding the loan, he added that Tunisia "is not for sale" and that public decisions should "be based on the will of the people."
The IMF deal has been postponed indefinitely, and more technical problems have arisen. The economic situation of Tunisia dramatically worsened after the staff-level agreement in September 2022. This fact means that some clauses of the deal may change, imposing even tougher conditions on Tunisia.
The situation has reached a stalemate that could extend for several months. The IMF and the Tunisian government share some common interests, such as stabilizing the country's economy. At the same time, both advocate seemingly irreconcilable arguments.
From Tunisia’s side, Saied is making nationalistic propaganda strengthen his domestic legitimacy. Conversely, the IMF is devoted to its lending practice based on structural reforms that, if well implemented, support public governance and states' capacity to repay debts.
Many experts have already pointed out that Tunisia must obtain a loan to avoid default and be able to pay its foreign debt installments in dollars. There is no viable plan B for Tunisia's policymakers. Asking China for economic help, for example, look unfeasible in the short term because of the already established relationship with the West.
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Tunisian Chaos May Spark New Mediterranean Migrant Crisis
2021 protest against the imprisoning of a Tunisian blogger for critical comments against the Tunisian army. Photo by sami chouayakh on Unsplash.
April 28, 2023
Tunisia has been in crisis-economic and political- since Tunisian President Kais Saied's de facto coup in 2021. Saied has blamed subsequent woes on migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, fomenting populist sentiment while failing to address the country's core problems, writes Elia Preto Martini.
S
ince the de-facto coup of 2021, with which President Kais Saied dissolved the parliament and abandoned the constitution, Tunisia has plunged into an ongoing economic and political crisis. His government has failed to adequately respond to the significant challenges that affect the country, such as the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In late February 2023, Saied made a fierce speech against foreign communities residing in Tunisia, particularly those from Sub-Saharan Africa. He stated these people were involved in a conspiracy to transform the country's demographic composition and ethnic-religious heritage, which is predominantly Arab-Muslim.
He said "hordes of irregular migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa" had come to Tunisia "with all the violence, crime, and unacceptable practices that entail." The African Union, a continental union including 55 African member states, contested his position, registering "deep shock and concern at the form and substance."
Saied uses migration as a scapegoat to distract public opinion from the country's economic problems. Tunisia suffers from structural issues, such as high youth unemployment and low wages, exacerbated by the domestic political crisis. In February, inflation reached 11%, further damaging the population's purchasing power.
According to United Nations data, 12,000 people departing from Tunisia have arrived in Italy, compared to 1,300 in the same period of 2022. Many are from the Sub-Saharan region and decided to leave after Saied’s crackdown on foreign communities. Some told Al Jazeera, "We live in hell; when we go out, they catch us and put us in jail. They have prepared a special prison for sub-Saharan Africans; when they catch you, they send you there."
This situation alarmed the European Union, particularly Italy, which was proactive in pushing for a solution to Tunisia's instability. Rome's fears are strictly connected to the migrant crisis of 2015 that undermined its socio-political stability. In mid-April 2023, the Italian government pledged investments in Tunisia, while Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani sought continued mediation between Tunisia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Under the U.S. and EU push, IMF representatives are trying to mediate with their Tunisian counterparts. On the table, there is a $1.9 billion loan already discussed among the European Union foreign ministers in March 2023. Tunisia's bailout has been stalled for several months now.
The IMF demanded economic and political reforms from the government, such as removing subsidies on basic goods and fuels. Saied refused this condition, stating, "It's true that some people who don't need subsidies benefit from them, but we can find other ways to make sure they get to those who deserve them."
Saied’s populist rhetoric aims to galvanize the segments of the population most susceptible to nationalist propaganda. Regarding the loan, he added that Tunisia "is not for sale" and that public decisions should "be based on the will of the people."
The IMF deal has been postponed indefinitely, and more technical problems have arisen. The economic situation of Tunisia dramatically worsened after the staff-level agreement in September 2022. This fact means that some clauses of the deal may change, imposing even tougher conditions on Tunisia.
The situation has reached a stalemate that could extend for several months. The IMF and the Tunisian government share some common interests, such as stabilizing the country's economy. At the same time, both advocate seemingly irreconcilable arguments.
From Tunisia’s side, Saied is making nationalistic propaganda strengthen his domestic legitimacy. Conversely, the IMF is devoted to its lending practice based on structural reforms that, if well implemented, support public governance and states' capacity to repay debts.
Many experts have already pointed out that Tunisia must obtain a loan to avoid default and be able to pay its foreign debt installments in dollars. There is no viable plan B for Tunisia's policymakers. Asking China for economic help, for example, look unfeasible in the short term because of the already established relationship with the West.
