ussia’s war in Ukraine has lasted nearly four weeks, and the consequences are being felt all over the world. The conflict has caused an increase in energy prices as well as food prices. The United Nations is particularly concerned about one of the potential consequences of the conflict: the risk of famine. It has never seemed more important in some countries, and it may become more so in others. Those living on the African continent will be among the first to be affected.
The dizzying rise in the price of agricultural and energy commodities could plunge 44 million people into famine. Unsurprisingly, more and more people are calling for countries to transition from industrial agriculture to agroecology in order to reduce reliance on imports by promoting local production and food sovereignty.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the war in Ukraine may cause 8 to 13 million additional people to go hungry, primarily in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. However, hunger already affects one out of every ten people in the world, and one-third of the world’s population is food insecure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising energy prices. The number of people suffering from famine in 38 countries could reach 44 million.
Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed, barley, and sunflower, accounting for more than one-third of global grain exports. Russia is even the leading wheat exporter, with Ukraine ranking fifth. The two countries sell 70% of the sunflower oil produced.
Wheat, on the other hand, is a staple food for 35% of the world’s population, and its price is skyrocketing: it has reached a record of $435 per ton. The increase is due to the blockage of exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The next harvest in Ukraine, scheduled for June/July, is not guaranteed to take place. Russia, for one, has threatened to halt all exports until June 30 (or until the end of the year, it is not very clear). Its Black Sea ports are open, but the sanctions have made trading difficult and caused the ruble to fall sharply, potentially raising prices still further.
Another major reason for this increase is that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of gas and the world’s second largest exporter of oil, both of which have seen significant price increases as a result of the war. The gas is used to produce synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, of which Russia is the world’s largest exporter, supplying no less than 25 countries. Furthermore, the rise in the price of gas and oil has an impact on the operation of agricultural machinery, transportation, and product processing.
Eritrea, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Armenia, Georgia, and Somalia rely entirely on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia. Lebanon, which is already on the verge of financial collapse, imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine. On March 10, the government raised bread prices. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran, the world’s largest wheat importers, receive up to 60% of their supplies from Russia and Ukraine prior to the war. The list goes on and on. More than half of the wheat imported by 26 countries comes from these two countries. Others, such as Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Pakistan, and Syria, rely heavily on them. In Sudan, the price of bread increased by seven cents on March 13, and the next day protests erupted, which were met with live ammunition by police.
Alternative supply sources exist, such as Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Australia, but these countries may limit exports to feed their populations. However, even large agricultural producers like Brazil and Argentina would not benefit from higher prices because import costs - particularly for Russian fertilizers, on which they rely heavily - have risen significantly.
If the war continues, the FAO anticipates that its food price index, which aggregates several foodstuffs (cereals, sugar, meat, dairy products, and so on), will rise by 8% to 20% above its current level, which is already very high.
Food insecurity and social unrest are unavoidable outcomes, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. The situation is especially dire in West Africa, where 28 million people are already facing a food crisis. Experts predict that by the summer, this figure will have risen to 38 million. Due to conflicts, climate change, and covid, agricultural production in the region has declined dramatically.
As a reminder, the speculative rise in grain prices in 2011 following poor harvests in Ukraine and Russia was one of the catalysts for the Arab revolutions. Most developing countries, however, find it difficult to subsidize food or to subsidize it further. For a majority of states, governments’ coffers are empty, and they must resume debt servicing, which was halted in 2020 due to covid. Mali, for example, is already in default.
Long-term solutions to these threats include shifting agricultural reliance away from industrial agriculture and toward agroecology, a type of agriculture that is more environmentally friendly and uses fewer chemicals. It is also crucial to examine global supply chains and reduce reliance on imports by encouraging local and regional production and food sovereignty.
In the short term, we should reduce agrofuels and food waste, oppose seed privatization, and increase humanitarian aid, beginning with funds for the World Food Program (WFP).
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The Ukraine Conflict, Africa, and Food Sovereignty
Wheat field in Ukraine. Photo by Alexey Artyukh via Unsplash.
March 24, 2022
Among the impacts of Russia's war on Ukraine is the potential for millions of additional people to go hungry - especially in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. This underscores the need for long-term solutions away from agricultural reliance toward food sovereignty, writes Richard Rousseau.
R
ussia’s war in Ukraine has lasted nearly four weeks, and the consequences are being felt all over the world. The conflict has caused an increase in energy prices as well as food prices. The United Nations is particularly concerned about one of the potential consequences of the conflict: the risk of famine. It has never seemed more important in some countries, and it may become more so in others. Those living on the African continent will be among the first to be affected.
The dizzying rise in the price of agricultural and energy commodities could plunge 44 million people into famine. Unsurprisingly, more and more people are calling for countries to transition from industrial agriculture to agroecology in order to reduce reliance on imports by promoting local production and food sovereignty.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the war in Ukraine may cause 8 to 13 million additional people to go hungry, primarily in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. However, hunger already affects one out of every ten people in the world, and one-third of the world’s population is food insecure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising energy prices. The number of people suffering from famine in 38 countries could reach 44 million.
Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed, barley, and sunflower, accounting for more than one-third of global grain exports. Russia is even the leading wheat exporter, with Ukraine ranking fifth. The two countries sell 70% of the sunflower oil produced.
Wheat, on the other hand, is a staple food for 35% of the world’s population, and its price is skyrocketing: it has reached a record of $435 per ton. The increase is due to the blockage of exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The next harvest in Ukraine, scheduled for June/July, is not guaranteed to take place. Russia, for one, has threatened to halt all exports until June 30 (or until the end of the year, it is not very clear). Its Black Sea ports are open, but the sanctions have made trading difficult and caused the ruble to fall sharply, potentially raising prices still further.
Another major reason for this increase is that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of gas and the world’s second largest exporter of oil, both of which have seen significant price increases as a result of the war. The gas is used to produce synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, of which Russia is the world’s largest exporter, supplying no less than 25 countries. Furthermore, the rise in the price of gas and oil has an impact on the operation of agricultural machinery, transportation, and product processing.
Eritrea, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Armenia, Georgia, and Somalia rely entirely on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia. Lebanon, which is already on the verge of financial collapse, imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine. On March 10, the government raised bread prices. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran, the world’s largest wheat importers, receive up to 60% of their supplies from Russia and Ukraine prior to the war. The list goes on and on. More than half of the wheat imported by 26 countries comes from these two countries. Others, such as Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Pakistan, and Syria, rely heavily on them. In Sudan, the price of bread increased by seven cents on March 13, and the next day protests erupted, which were met with live ammunition by police.
Alternative supply sources exist, such as Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Australia, but these countries may limit exports to feed their populations. However, even large agricultural producers like Brazil and Argentina would not benefit from higher prices because import costs - particularly for Russian fertilizers, on which they rely heavily - have risen significantly.
If the war continues, the FAO anticipates that its food price index, which aggregates several foodstuffs (cereals, sugar, meat, dairy products, and so on), will rise by 8% to 20% above its current level, which is already very high.
Food insecurity and social unrest are unavoidable outcomes, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. The situation is especially dire in West Africa, where 28 million people are already facing a food crisis. Experts predict that by the summer, this figure will have risen to 38 million. Due to conflicts, climate change, and covid, agricultural production in the region has declined dramatically.
As a reminder, the speculative rise in grain prices in 2011 following poor harvests in Ukraine and Russia was one of the catalysts for the Arab revolutions. Most developing countries, however, find it difficult to subsidize food or to subsidize it further. For a majority of states, governments’ coffers are empty, and they must resume debt servicing, which was halted in 2020 due to covid. Mali, for example, is already in default.
Long-term solutions to these threats include shifting agricultural reliance away from industrial agriculture and toward agroecology, a type of agriculture that is more environmentally friendly and uses fewer chemicals. It is also crucial to examine global supply chains and reduce reliance on imports by encouraging local and regional production and food sovereignty.
In the short term, we should reduce agrofuels and food waste, oppose seed privatization, and increase humanitarian aid, beginning with funds for the World Food Program (WFP).
