.
Prior to the Paris terrorist attacks of November 13, Europe was struggling with the biggest refugee crisis since WWII. In 2011, with the quest for democracy in the MENA region hitting a wall, the number of people landing on Europe’s shores increased. A cascade of tragic events followed: sunken boats filled with desperate people seeking a better life in Europe, dead bodies washing on Europe’s shores, filthy refugee camps built in haste. However, in 2011, the magnitude of the crisis that was about to unfold was hard to predict. Over the next years, worsening security conditions in Syria, Afghanistan, and several other countries prompted waves of people to embark on dangerous journeys towards Europe. A real crisis was unfolding—a crisis that has displaced about 11 million people.
Before the terrorist attack of November 13, Europe was struggling to respond to the refugee crisis. On Sept 22, 2015, the EU ministers approved a quota plan to redistribute refugees. A Return Handbook was also put in place to assist member states in returning illegally staying third country nationals. Some Eastern European states showed clear resistance to receiving refugees. Stances in Western Europe appeared softer. However, as more refugees reached Europe, the East-West divide almost vanished.
On November 13, approximately 130 were killed and more than 300 were injured in the Paris attacks. ISIS took responsibility for the attack. It was also reported that one of the attackers entered through Greece holding a fake Syrian passport. As a result, after the attack the animosity towards refugees heightened. Germany’s Angela Merkel – a big supporter of the refugees – faces dire opposition at home. The Bavarian finance minister, Markus Söder, said that “the days of uncontrolled immigration and illegal entry can’t continue.” Poland declared that it will not take in any refugees. Hungary’s Viktor Orban declared war not on the terrorists, but on the refugees. On November 17, in Germany, the Alliance for Democracy rose significantly in the polls. Support for Marine Le Pen’s Front National party reached 22% in the polls, up from 17% in October 2015.
However, on November 18, after days of shock and uninterrupted bombing of ISIS, President François Hollande stated that France will receive 30,000 refugees. The European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, stepped up calls for the EU not to lump the refugees with the terrorists, and declared that there is no need for changes in the EU’s refugee policies. However, the Guardian reported that EU leaders missed the deadline to begin the implementation of refugee relocation, and: “relocation of refugees, projected to take two years, would take 166 years to implement at [the] current rate”. And on November 20, 2015, EU ministers ordered external border security of the Schengen area to be tightened.
What did all these events amount to?
First, with more walls being built inside Europe, and the tightening of external borders, Europe could literally become a fortress. The free movement of people has probably already seen its best days. It is clear that the walls to keep the terrorists out will leave the refugees in the cold. Europe’s message to the refugees is coming into focus: “Welcome to Europe. Now go home.”
Second, right-wing parties across Europe have received a boost. If this trend holds, instead of a bastion of democracy, Europe may become a bastion of authoritarianism. Robert A. Pape showed that, “[S]uicide terrorism follows a strategic logic, one specifically designed to coerce modern liberal democracies to make significant territorial concessions.” However, true as that may be, the 9/11 attacks in the United States showed that policies aimed at fighting terrorism can curtail civil liberties too.
Third – provided that the downing of a Russian airplane by Turkey on November 24 does not escalate tensions between NATO and Russia to the point of no return – the Paris attack can transform Putin from a pariah into an indispensable ally in the fight against terrorism. In fact, Europe needs Putin to help stabilize Syria and decrease the stream of refugees. Welcoming Putin back, and possibly lessening the sanctions on Russia, would be the equivalent of a game changer.
Is Europe almost speaking with one voice when it comes to the refugee crisis? Are most Europeans happy to see them gone from Europe? Despite background noise – such as declarations of solidarity with the refugees – it does appear so.
About the authors: Gabriela Marin Thornton is an Instructional Associate Professor of International Affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University. Lexia C. Arther is a second-year Master of International Affairs student specializing in European Security at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University.
Photo by Mstyslav Chernov. Syrian refugees strike at the platform of Budapest Keleti railway station. Hungary, September 4, 2015.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.
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The Refugee Crisis: Quo Vadis Europe?
December 4, 2015
Prior to the Paris terrorist attacks of November 13, Europe was struggling with the biggest refugee crisis since WWII. In 2011, with the quest for democracy in the MENA region hitting a wall, the number of people landing on Europe’s shores increased. A cascade of tragic events followed: sunken boats filled with desperate people seeking a better life in Europe, dead bodies washing on Europe’s shores, filthy refugee camps built in haste. However, in 2011, the magnitude of the crisis that was about to unfold was hard to predict. Over the next years, worsening security conditions in Syria, Afghanistan, and several other countries prompted waves of people to embark on dangerous journeys towards Europe. A real crisis was unfolding—a crisis that has displaced about 11 million people.
Before the terrorist attack of November 13, Europe was struggling to respond to the refugee crisis. On Sept 22, 2015, the EU ministers approved a quota plan to redistribute refugees. A Return Handbook was also put in place to assist member states in returning illegally staying third country nationals. Some Eastern European states showed clear resistance to receiving refugees. Stances in Western Europe appeared softer. However, as more refugees reached Europe, the East-West divide almost vanished.
On November 13, approximately 130 were killed and more than 300 were injured in the Paris attacks. ISIS took responsibility for the attack. It was also reported that one of the attackers entered through Greece holding a fake Syrian passport. As a result, after the attack the animosity towards refugees heightened. Germany’s Angela Merkel – a big supporter of the refugees – faces dire opposition at home. The Bavarian finance minister, Markus Söder, said that “the days of uncontrolled immigration and illegal entry can’t continue.” Poland declared that it will not take in any refugees. Hungary’s Viktor Orban declared war not on the terrorists, but on the refugees. On November 17, in Germany, the Alliance for Democracy rose significantly in the polls. Support for Marine Le Pen’s Front National party reached 22% in the polls, up from 17% in October 2015.
However, on November 18, after days of shock and uninterrupted bombing of ISIS, President François Hollande stated that France will receive 30,000 refugees. The European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, stepped up calls for the EU not to lump the refugees with the terrorists, and declared that there is no need for changes in the EU’s refugee policies. However, the Guardian reported that EU leaders missed the deadline to begin the implementation of refugee relocation, and: “relocation of refugees, projected to take two years, would take 166 years to implement at [the] current rate”. And on November 20, 2015, EU ministers ordered external border security of the Schengen area to be tightened.
What did all these events amount to?
First, with more walls being built inside Europe, and the tightening of external borders, Europe could literally become a fortress. The free movement of people has probably already seen its best days. It is clear that the walls to keep the terrorists out will leave the refugees in the cold. Europe’s message to the refugees is coming into focus: “Welcome to Europe. Now go home.”
Second, right-wing parties across Europe have received a boost. If this trend holds, instead of a bastion of democracy, Europe may become a bastion of authoritarianism. Robert A. Pape showed that, “[S]uicide terrorism follows a strategic logic, one specifically designed to coerce modern liberal democracies to make significant territorial concessions.” However, true as that may be, the 9/11 attacks in the United States showed that policies aimed at fighting terrorism can curtail civil liberties too.
Third – provided that the downing of a Russian airplane by Turkey on November 24 does not escalate tensions between NATO and Russia to the point of no return – the Paris attack can transform Putin from a pariah into an indispensable ally in the fight against terrorism. In fact, Europe needs Putin to help stabilize Syria and decrease the stream of refugees. Welcoming Putin back, and possibly lessening the sanctions on Russia, would be the equivalent of a game changer.
Is Europe almost speaking with one voice when it comes to the refugee crisis? Are most Europeans happy to see them gone from Europe? Despite background noise – such as declarations of solidarity with the refugees – it does appear so.
About the authors: Gabriela Marin Thornton is an Instructional Associate Professor of International Affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University. Lexia C. Arther is a second-year Master of International Affairs student specializing in European Security at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University.
Photo by Mstyslav Chernov. Syrian refugees strike at the platform of Budapest Keleti railway station. Hungary, September 4, 2015.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.
