When it comes to peacemaking, a mediator must play the hand it has been dealt, not the one it wishes it had. Looking at the Israeli and Palestinian leadership today, the US must acknowledge that for at least the time being, it has been dealt a losing hand. As Prime Minister Netanyahu stridently dismissed President Obama’s call for negotiations based on the 1967 line with mutually agreed swaps, and as President Abbas continues his march toward the UN in September, it is clear that neither side intends to renew the peace process.
Yet as the convening of Monday’s Quartet summit demonstrates, the Obama Administration is still bent on bringing Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table in an attempt to deflect the Palestinian effort to seek unilateral state recognition from the UN in September. Clearly, President Obama continues to believe that he can apply old and conventional solutions to new and evolving problems. This administration should realize that both Netanyahu and Abbas possess neither the political nor personal will to renew negotiations anytime between now and September.
On the Israeli side, a leader who was truly interested in resuming negotiations would at least have met the President halfway in his vision to reinvigorate the peace process. Instead, Netanyahu has rejected it outright, denying the “indefensible” 1967 lines as a starting point for further negotiations and refusing to talk with a Fatah-Hamas unity government. Whether or not Netanyahu ought to be expected to resume negotiating with a unity government under such conditions is a valid question; the point remains, however, that evidence suggests he will not.
In recent months, not only have American efforts to renew the peace process not succeeded, but they have actually backfired by strengthening Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, many of whose members oppose further talks. Netanyahu and his coalition have balked at President Obama’s repeated calls for the immediate resumption of negotiations, and have instead used these calls as opportunities to set preconditions of their own and mobilize their political base around their rhetoric. With each renewed American call for negotiations, an Obama push has been met with a Netanyahu pull.
On the Palestinian side, President Mahmoud Abbas has already staked his legacy on the UN vote. This is precisely why the American assumption that resumed negotiations will deflect the September resolution is mistaken. Just last week, lead Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat declared that, “There is no contradiction between the peace process and the UN recognition of the Palestinian state.” In other words, no matter what progress is made with negotiations, the Palestinians will push forward on their UN strategy - and there is nothing America can do about it.
America’s loss of influence has been exemplified by Abbas’ decision to unite his government with that of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that governs the Gaza Strip, despite the obvious American opposition he knew it would engender. The Palestinian leadership knows that these choices may well result in a suspension of American aid and a deterioration of relations. No clearer signal could have been sent that the US has lost sway over the Palestinian President. Abbas has made his decision: in his final year in power, he has chosen for Palestinian unity and internationally-recognized statehood, not negotiations, to be his legacy - whatever the cost.
While in the future Israeli and Palestinian leadership may present real openings to resume negotiations, now is not one of those times. Until the UN vote takes place, the US would be wise to begin to prepare itself and its allies for the day after the September resolution is decided, and consider possible mediation opportunities that may present themselves after the vote.
While it would be convenient to believe that the Israeli and Palestinian leadership present the US with a winnable gamble, the pre-September reality is in fact a lost cause. Today, the US has drawn a King of the Israeli right, and a Palestinian Joker who is not even interested in being a part of the hand. It is time for the US to fold its cards, cut its losses, and rethink whether it is even playing the right game.
Gabriel Kohan is a former Israel Government Fellow and Mark Donig is a former Dean’s Fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya’s Program for the Diplomatic Corps. They can be reached at kohan.donig@gmail.com.
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The Israeli King and the Palestinian Joker: Obama’s Losing Hand
July 12, 2011
When it comes to peacemaking, a mediator must play the hand it has been dealt, not the one it wishes it had. Looking at the Israeli and Palestinian leadership today, the US must acknowledge that for at least the time being, it has been dealt a losing hand. As Prime Minister Netanyahu stridently dismissed President Obama’s call for negotiations based on the 1967 line with mutually agreed swaps, and as President Abbas continues his march toward the UN in September, it is clear that neither side intends to renew the peace process.
Yet as the convening of Monday’s Quartet summit demonstrates, the Obama Administration is still bent on bringing Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table in an attempt to deflect the Palestinian effort to seek unilateral state recognition from the UN in September. Clearly, President Obama continues to believe that he can apply old and conventional solutions to new and evolving problems. This administration should realize that both Netanyahu and Abbas possess neither the political nor personal will to renew negotiations anytime between now and September.
On the Israeli side, a leader who was truly interested in resuming negotiations would at least have met the President halfway in his vision to reinvigorate the peace process. Instead, Netanyahu has rejected it outright, denying the “indefensible” 1967 lines as a starting point for further negotiations and refusing to talk with a Fatah-Hamas unity government. Whether or not Netanyahu ought to be expected to resume negotiating with a unity government under such conditions is a valid question; the point remains, however, that evidence suggests he will not.
In recent months, not only have American efforts to renew the peace process not succeeded, but they have actually backfired by strengthening Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, many of whose members oppose further talks. Netanyahu and his coalition have balked at President Obama’s repeated calls for the immediate resumption of negotiations, and have instead used these calls as opportunities to set preconditions of their own and mobilize their political base around their rhetoric. With each renewed American call for negotiations, an Obama push has been met with a Netanyahu pull.
On the Palestinian side, President Mahmoud Abbas has already staked his legacy on the UN vote. This is precisely why the American assumption that resumed negotiations will deflect the September resolution is mistaken. Just last week, lead Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat declared that, “There is no contradiction between the peace process and the UN recognition of the Palestinian state.” In other words, no matter what progress is made with negotiations, the Palestinians will push forward on their UN strategy - and there is nothing America can do about it.
America’s loss of influence has been exemplified by Abbas’ decision to unite his government with that of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that governs the Gaza Strip, despite the obvious American opposition he knew it would engender. The Palestinian leadership knows that these choices may well result in a suspension of American aid and a deterioration of relations. No clearer signal could have been sent that the US has lost sway over the Palestinian President. Abbas has made his decision: in his final year in power, he has chosen for Palestinian unity and internationally-recognized statehood, not negotiations, to be his legacy - whatever the cost.
While in the future Israeli and Palestinian leadership may present real openings to resume negotiations, now is not one of those times. Until the UN vote takes place, the US would be wise to begin to prepare itself and its allies for the day after the September resolution is decided, and consider possible mediation opportunities that may present themselves after the vote.
While it would be convenient to believe that the Israeli and Palestinian leadership present the US with a winnable gamble, the pre-September reality is in fact a lost cause. Today, the US has drawn a King of the Israeli right, and a Palestinian Joker who is not even interested in being a part of the hand. It is time for the US to fold its cards, cut its losses, and rethink whether it is even playing the right game.
Gabriel Kohan is a former Israel Government Fellow and Mark Donig is a former Dean’s Fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya’s Program for the Diplomatic Corps. They can be reached at kohan.donig@gmail.com.
