In September 2012, when the Japanese Government purchased three uninhabited islands from their private Japanese owners, they thought they were defusing a crisis. The move to acquire the disputed islands in the Senkaku chain was meant to pre-empt right-wing Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara from purchasing the islands. With Ishihara’s record of China-bashing and staunch nationalist views, Prime Minister Noda likely viewed his initiative as less provocative to China. Instead the Chinese reacted angrily and have increased the deployment of military forces to the contested territories. Relations between the two Asian giants have been affected by this crisis, and pundits have speculated about a miscalculation leading to war. Due to the new leadership in both countries and the change in the strategic balance between China and Japan, it is unlikely that a resolution to the row will be found in the near term and relations will worsen. These developments have no upside and will have consequences for both countries.
Domestic politics in both China and Japan will play a key role in the outcome of this latest source of tension. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe inherited the crisis over the Senkaku Islands from his predecessor. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s Democratic Party of Japan was more open to working with China, while PM Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is more conservative and less willing to negotiate with Beijing. Abe is regarded as a hawk, and has spoken of strengthening the Japanese Self Defense Forces and loosening their rules of engagement.
In the case of China, new leader Xi Jinping will be under pressure to assert his leadership and demonstrate his nationalist credentials. As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has embraced capitalism, it has used nationalism to maintain its hold on power. Xi will have little room to be seen as backing down to the Japanese in the face of pressure from nationalists. Additionally, Chinese GDP growth in 2012 was under 8 percent, the worst since 1999. Any slowing of the economy would cause the Chinese leadership to become more nationalistic and anti-Japanese in order to maintain their legitimacy. Both new leaders will be under domestic pressures that will force a harder line response.
The dispute is also becoming increasingly militarized. Both countries have deployed naval vessels and an increasing number of fighter and surveillance jets to the region. Recently reports emerged that a Chinese frigate illuminated a Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force warship with its fire control radar, a precursor to launching a missile. Such actions increase the likelihood of a miscalculation or a tragic accident that could cause a military escalation. If either country suffered fatalities as a result of military action, the political dynamics could force a response. A military conflict could quickly involve the U.S., as Japan is a treaty ally that the U.S. is bound to defend.
Another factor that influences this dispute is the larger regional security situation. China is increasingly confident and views itself as regaining its place as the dominant power in the region. It has territorial disputes with numerous neighbors and is pressuring them to settle them on terms favorable to Beijing. In 2010, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi commented that, “China is a big country and other countries are small countries,” inadvertently highlighting the feeling in the region that China is trying to bully its smaller neighbors.
China’s rise comes at a time when Japan is struggling. Japan’s economic growth has been stagnant since the end of the Cold War, and Japan has had five prime ministers take office since 2008. The economic troubles coupled with political dysfunction are the source of great concern in Japan and makes nationalism a more appealing ideology. Japan is fighting to maintain its position in the region as China is seeking to assert itself. This dynamic along with the historical tensions between the two nations are pushing each country to take a firmer stance against its long-time rivals.
A military conflict over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea makes little sense for either China or Japan. Both countries are economic giants that are major trade partners, with two-way trade combining for over $250 billion per year. Japan is seeking to gets its economy back on track, and China needs to maintain robust growth to continue raising the standard of living for its 1.4 billion people and to maintain the CCP’s legitimacy. The longer tensions remain high, the more both countries stand to lose. Japanese exports to China have dropped and Japanese companies in China were forced to shut down due to a wave of anti-Japanese protests in 2012. While Japan can ill afford the economic damage from strained ties with China, China has more at stake. China has sought to promote its rise as peaceful. Every time China uses a heavy hand in territorial disputes, it forces its neighbors to view Beijing more warily and seek outside help. The more the Chinese are seen as being the aggressor the closer they will push countries, such as Japan and the Philippines, to the U.S. and invite a larger U/S presence in the region. Antagonizing its neighbors is not in China’s interests, as a greater U.S. role in Asia is the last thing China wants as it seeks to become the region’s dominant player.
Vineet Daga is an independent foreign policy writer. He has a BA and MA in international affairs from The George Washington University.
Photo: Voice of America (cc).
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The Dispute No One Can Win
March 23, 2013
In September 2012, when the Japanese Government purchased three uninhabited islands from their private Japanese owners, they thought they were defusing a crisis. The move to acquire the disputed islands in the Senkaku chain was meant to pre-empt right-wing Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara from purchasing the islands. With Ishihara’s record of China-bashing and staunch nationalist views, Prime Minister Noda likely viewed his initiative as less provocative to China. Instead the Chinese reacted angrily and have increased the deployment of military forces to the contested territories. Relations between the two Asian giants have been affected by this crisis, and pundits have speculated about a miscalculation leading to war. Due to the new leadership in both countries and the change in the strategic balance between China and Japan, it is unlikely that a resolution to the row will be found in the near term and relations will worsen. These developments have no upside and will have consequences for both countries.
Domestic politics in both China and Japan will play a key role in the outcome of this latest source of tension. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe inherited the crisis over the Senkaku Islands from his predecessor. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s Democratic Party of Japan was more open to working with China, while PM Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is more conservative and less willing to negotiate with Beijing. Abe is regarded as a hawk, and has spoken of strengthening the Japanese Self Defense Forces and loosening their rules of engagement.
In the case of China, new leader Xi Jinping will be under pressure to assert his leadership and demonstrate his nationalist credentials. As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has embraced capitalism, it has used nationalism to maintain its hold on power. Xi will have little room to be seen as backing down to the Japanese in the face of pressure from nationalists. Additionally, Chinese GDP growth in 2012 was under 8 percent, the worst since 1999. Any slowing of the economy would cause the Chinese leadership to become more nationalistic and anti-Japanese in order to maintain their legitimacy. Both new leaders will be under domestic pressures that will force a harder line response.
The dispute is also becoming increasingly militarized. Both countries have deployed naval vessels and an increasing number of fighter and surveillance jets to the region. Recently reports emerged that a Chinese frigate illuminated a Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force warship with its fire control radar, a precursor to launching a missile. Such actions increase the likelihood of a miscalculation or a tragic accident that could cause a military escalation. If either country suffered fatalities as a result of military action, the political dynamics could force a response. A military conflict could quickly involve the U.S., as Japan is a treaty ally that the U.S. is bound to defend.
Another factor that influences this dispute is the larger regional security situation. China is increasingly confident and views itself as regaining its place as the dominant power in the region. It has territorial disputes with numerous neighbors and is pressuring them to settle them on terms favorable to Beijing. In 2010, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi commented that, “China is a big country and other countries are small countries,” inadvertently highlighting the feeling in the region that China is trying to bully its smaller neighbors.
China’s rise comes at a time when Japan is struggling. Japan’s economic growth has been stagnant since the end of the Cold War, and Japan has had five prime ministers take office since 2008. The economic troubles coupled with political dysfunction are the source of great concern in Japan and makes nationalism a more appealing ideology. Japan is fighting to maintain its position in the region as China is seeking to assert itself. This dynamic along with the historical tensions between the two nations are pushing each country to take a firmer stance against its long-time rivals.
A military conflict over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea makes little sense for either China or Japan. Both countries are economic giants that are major trade partners, with two-way trade combining for over $250 billion per year. Japan is seeking to gets its economy back on track, and China needs to maintain robust growth to continue raising the standard of living for its 1.4 billion people and to maintain the CCP’s legitimacy. The longer tensions remain high, the more both countries stand to lose. Japanese exports to China have dropped and Japanese companies in China were forced to shut down due to a wave of anti-Japanese protests in 2012. While Japan can ill afford the economic damage from strained ties with China, China has more at stake. China has sought to promote its rise as peaceful. Every time China uses a heavy hand in territorial disputes, it forces its neighbors to view Beijing more warily and seek outside help. The more the Chinese are seen as being the aggressor the closer they will push countries, such as Japan and the Philippines, to the U.S. and invite a larger U/S presence in the region. Antagonizing its neighbors is not in China’s interests, as a greater U.S. role in Asia is the last thing China wants as it seeks to become the region’s dominant player.
Vineet Daga is an independent foreign policy writer. He has a BA and MA in international affairs from The George Washington University.
Photo: Voice of America (cc).
