Across the African continent, popular demand for democratic governance has risen steadily over the past decade. However, this growing demand has remained unmatched by a proportionally increasing supply of democracy.
Termed “deficit of democracy” by Afrobarometer—an independent research project that studies and tracks trends in public attitudes toward economics, society, and politics throughout 35 African countries—this phenomenon demonstrates the complexity of consolidated democratization in Africa. The discrepancy between supply and demand for democracy is further convoluted by research, which suggests a lingering tolerance for, or acceptance of some form of autocracy. Thus, understanding Africa’s evolving popular sentiment toward democracy must account for both the deficit of democracy and the extent of residual autocratic sympathies. The emerging pattern reveals an increasing pan-continental attachment to democracy and its institutions, albeit with varying regional differences and not yet to the absolute exclusion of forms of authoritarianism.
Deficit of Democracy
Following centuries of subjugation and exploitation under European colonialism, Africa’s modern nation-states have developed over the past 70 years. With the end of WWII in 1945, Europe’s remaining colonial powers collapsed, endowing former colonies in Africa with the right to self-determination and sovereignty, and ushering in an era of Africa’s experimentation with modern statecraft and self-rule. What types of regimes—democratic or autocratic—these new states would adopt remained to be seen.
As the post-WWII international system deteriorated into the Cold War, the United States, and the Soviet Union vied for influence over emerging African states and their governments. Each side sought to demonstrate their regime’s preeminence and thereby convince, or coerce, new African states to adopt their respective system of government–African nations’ attempts at state building reflected both democracy and authoritarianism. But with the end of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it appeared that the Western way of liberal democracy had triumphed and would ostensibly be the world’s primary regime type. However, some regions of Africa remained staunchly authoritarian or adopted some hybridization of the two regime types. Where democratic sentiment took hold, attempts at consolidation were unviable: governments abused human rights, violated the rule of law, lacked civil society, and conducted faulty elections.
In the past three decades, however, Africa’s political landscape has changed drastically. To track recent developments, Afrobarometer regularly issues public surveys in 35 African nations to measure attitudes, among other things, toward government. In the most recent round of surveys (conducted from 2011-2013), researchers studied public opinion regarding democracy. In the ensuing publication, researchers identified rising public demand for democracy as a major trend, but one that is accompanied by a failure of governments to deliver.
Demand for Democracy
As reported by Afrobarometer, a majority of Africans (71 percent) exhibit a preference for democratic governance; the remaining 29 percent is divided between individuals who feel that autocratic regimes are preferable (11 percent) and those who are apathetic (18 percent). Not surprisingly, a great deal of variation exists between countries: preference for democracy ranged from a low of 39 percent in Madagascar to 90 percent in Zambia. Despite a continental average constituting the majority, a simple preference for democracy does not suggest that first, African countries are truly democratic or second, that other forms of government are always unacceptable. When analyzing for individuals who adamantly demand democracy, while rejecting any other regime type, Afrobarometer finds that only 46 percent of the population expresses this attitude.
Supply of Democracy
Less that half of Africa’s population (49 percent) expresses satisfaction with the functioning of democracy in their respective countries, suggesting that despite high preferences for democracy, people are disillusioned with how it is being practiced. In some countries, this may be the product of differing conceptions and expectations of democracy. In others, according to Afrobarometer, it reflects underdeveloped democratic institutions, such as in Togo where a family dynasty prevents political opposition and only 21 percent of the population is satisfied with the democratic elements present in society.
In addition to questions of satisfaction, it is imperative to inquire whether the citizens of these countries consider their governments to be truly democratic. On average, Afrobarometer found that only 53 percent identify their state government as a full democracy, or one with minor problems. Taken together, satisfaction with democracy and confidence that the government qualifies as a democracy constitutes only 43 percent of African opinion. The identifiable trend is that supply of democracy has not kept up with the increasing demand for it, resulting in a deficit of democracy that has steadily developed since African states emerged from colonial rule.
Rejecting Autocracy
Forms of autocracy—single-party regimes, personal dictatorships, or military rule—are increasingly rejected by Africans, but not yet completely. Afrobarometer reports that single-party regimes are rejected by 77 percent of the population, 80 percent express antipathy for personal dictatorships and 73 percent dismiss military governments. Despite these high percentages of rejection, the statistics also reveal some degree of lingering tolerance and acceptance by the general public for forms of autocracy. Thus, it is easy to express democratic sympathies, but finding individuals who demand democracy while rejecting all other forms of government becomes increasingly difficult. Afrobarometer found that 93 percent of Africans reject at least one form, 81 percent reject two, but only 58 percent reject all three. Deeply rooted democratic sentiment and simultaneous rejection of all three forms of autocracy are highest in Zambia, Mauritius, and Ghana, and lowest in Egypt, Algeria, and Madagascar. Certainly, attitudes toward democracy and autocracy vary from country to country.
Despite the deficit of democracy and tolerance for some form autocratic regime that is observed in Africa today, the continent is slowly moving toward deeper attachment with democracy and its institutions, especially as Africans acknowledge that their governments fail to live up to expectations. The trends emerging in Afrobarometer’s research, from its inception in 2002 until today, indicate diffusing democratic sentiment across the continent. What implications this growing demand and the attendant dissatisfaction with current regimes may have on African states remains to be seen. And whether political regime type is more important than other societal issues like quality health care, employment, or education may determine how tolerant Africans are of their governments. If governments provides these social services, but are structurally autocratic, Africans may be more accepting of alternative regime types and consequently impervious to full democratic transition.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's November/December 2014 print edition.
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The Challenges of Africa’s Rising Demand for Democracy
November 21, 2014
Across the African continent, popular demand for democratic governance has risen steadily over the past decade. However, this growing demand has remained unmatched by a proportionally increasing supply of democracy.
Termed “deficit of democracy” by Afrobarometer—an independent research project that studies and tracks trends in public attitudes toward economics, society, and politics throughout 35 African countries—this phenomenon demonstrates the complexity of consolidated democratization in Africa. The discrepancy between supply and demand for democracy is further convoluted by research, which suggests a lingering tolerance for, or acceptance of some form of autocracy. Thus, understanding Africa’s evolving popular sentiment toward democracy must account for both the deficit of democracy and the extent of residual autocratic sympathies. The emerging pattern reveals an increasing pan-continental attachment to democracy and its institutions, albeit with varying regional differences and not yet to the absolute exclusion of forms of authoritarianism.
Deficit of Democracy
Following centuries of subjugation and exploitation under European colonialism, Africa’s modern nation-states have developed over the past 70 years. With the end of WWII in 1945, Europe’s remaining colonial powers collapsed, endowing former colonies in Africa with the right to self-determination and sovereignty, and ushering in an era of Africa’s experimentation with modern statecraft and self-rule. What types of regimes—democratic or autocratic—these new states would adopt remained to be seen.
As the post-WWII international system deteriorated into the Cold War, the United States, and the Soviet Union vied for influence over emerging African states and their governments. Each side sought to demonstrate their regime’s preeminence and thereby convince, or coerce, new African states to adopt their respective system of government–African nations’ attempts at state building reflected both democracy and authoritarianism. But with the end of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it appeared that the Western way of liberal democracy had triumphed and would ostensibly be the world’s primary regime type. However, some regions of Africa remained staunchly authoritarian or adopted some hybridization of the two regime types. Where democratic sentiment took hold, attempts at consolidation were unviable: governments abused human rights, violated the rule of law, lacked civil society, and conducted faulty elections.
In the past three decades, however, Africa’s political landscape has changed drastically. To track recent developments, Afrobarometer regularly issues public surveys in 35 African nations to measure attitudes, among other things, toward government. In the most recent round of surveys (conducted from 2011-2013), researchers studied public opinion regarding democracy. In the ensuing publication, researchers identified rising public demand for democracy as a major trend, but one that is accompanied by a failure of governments to deliver.
Demand for Democracy
As reported by Afrobarometer, a majority of Africans (71 percent) exhibit a preference for democratic governance; the remaining 29 percent is divided between individuals who feel that autocratic regimes are preferable (11 percent) and those who are apathetic (18 percent). Not surprisingly, a great deal of variation exists between countries: preference for democracy ranged from a low of 39 percent in Madagascar to 90 percent in Zambia. Despite a continental average constituting the majority, a simple preference for democracy does not suggest that first, African countries are truly democratic or second, that other forms of government are always unacceptable. When analyzing for individuals who adamantly demand democracy, while rejecting any other regime type, Afrobarometer finds that only 46 percent of the population expresses this attitude.
Supply of Democracy
Less that half of Africa’s population (49 percent) expresses satisfaction with the functioning of democracy in their respective countries, suggesting that despite high preferences for democracy, people are disillusioned with how it is being practiced. In some countries, this may be the product of differing conceptions and expectations of democracy. In others, according to Afrobarometer, it reflects underdeveloped democratic institutions, such as in Togo where a family dynasty prevents political opposition and only 21 percent of the population is satisfied with the democratic elements present in society.
In addition to questions of satisfaction, it is imperative to inquire whether the citizens of these countries consider their governments to be truly democratic. On average, Afrobarometer found that only 53 percent identify their state government as a full democracy, or one with minor problems. Taken together, satisfaction with democracy and confidence that the government qualifies as a democracy constitutes only 43 percent of African opinion. The identifiable trend is that supply of democracy has not kept up with the increasing demand for it, resulting in a deficit of democracy that has steadily developed since African states emerged from colonial rule.
Rejecting Autocracy
Forms of autocracy—single-party regimes, personal dictatorships, or military rule—are increasingly rejected by Africans, but not yet completely. Afrobarometer reports that single-party regimes are rejected by 77 percent of the population, 80 percent express antipathy for personal dictatorships and 73 percent dismiss military governments. Despite these high percentages of rejection, the statistics also reveal some degree of lingering tolerance and acceptance by the general public for forms of autocracy. Thus, it is easy to express democratic sympathies, but finding individuals who demand democracy while rejecting all other forms of government becomes increasingly difficult. Afrobarometer found that 93 percent of Africans reject at least one form, 81 percent reject two, but only 58 percent reject all three. Deeply rooted democratic sentiment and simultaneous rejection of all three forms of autocracy are highest in Zambia, Mauritius, and Ghana, and lowest in Egypt, Algeria, and Madagascar. Certainly, attitudes toward democracy and autocracy vary from country to country.
Despite the deficit of democracy and tolerance for some form autocratic regime that is observed in Africa today, the continent is slowly moving toward deeper attachment with democracy and its institutions, especially as Africans acknowledge that their governments fail to live up to expectations. The trends emerging in Afrobarometer’s research, from its inception in 2002 until today, indicate diffusing democratic sentiment across the continent. What implications this growing demand and the attendant dissatisfaction with current regimes may have on African states remains to be seen. And whether political regime type is more important than other societal issues like quality health care, employment, or education may determine how tolerant Africans are of their governments. If governments provides these social services, but are structurally autocratic, Africans may be more accepting of alternative regime types and consequently impervious to full democratic transition.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's November/December 2014 print edition.
