Asia is home to the eight of the world’s ten largest megacities—Tokyo, Jakarta, Seoul, Guangzhou, Delhi, Shanghai, Karachi, and Manila—all with over 20 million inhabitants. As Asia’s megacities continue to grow, concern mounts over the ability of states to control them. That control would be tested by natural disasters, civil unrest, infrastructure shortfalls, or epidemics. Indeed, the preparedness of most of Asia’s sprawling megacities is untested.
Megacities are perhaps one of mankind’s most dangerous social experiments. Controlling cities of over 10 million people requires large law enforcement capacity, but also sufficient infrastructure and emergency planning. The fast growth of Asia’s megacities has been nothing short of astounding—take Karachi’s 80 percent population growth between 2000 and 2010 for example. Yet such rapid growth brings myriad problems.
It is not just the urban environment that feels the effects of a megacity’s growth—it is also in rural populations. Megacities need mega infrastructure—more power generation facilities, inter-city roads, and railways—that often lead to land acquisitions in rural environments and result in conflict. Similar strain on such key infrastructure can lead to shortfalls in power generation, leading to brown- or black- outs that, while economically costly, can also prove life-threatening for vulnerable parts of the population.
The social fabric of such mega-societies is often tested by the migration of ethnic or rural populations. Indeed, population growth in megacities relies on the migration “pull” of rural populations to urban environments. Tensions are also pronounced in changes in social norms such as gender roles. For example, in Vietnam, with an emerging megacity in Ho Chi Minh City, as more men from rural areas seek opportunities in urban areas, women are forced to tend to small family farms. As such, in Vietnam, gender participation in the work force is higher in female populations (80 percent) compared to male populations (70 percent). Aside from the issues this has on lowering birth rates, unemployed—and often unattached—males in urban environments has been shown to lead to higher crime rates while also impacting the sale of prostitution, drugs, and human trafficking. Ultimately this further erodes social customs. Similar trends, where social tensions are being stretched, can be seen across Asia.
But aside from these changing social fabrics, more abrupt threats are also likely. Natural disasters are just one such unpredictable and difficult-to-mitigate problem. Of the world’s 30 megacities, half are at risk of earthquakes, and none more so than Tokyo, which sits upon three geological fault lines. The 2011 magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, while some miles north of the megacity, tested the city’s resilience and preparedness for natural disaster. The response was impressive. Despite strong aftershocks felt in Tokyo, community preparedness, as well as that of the state, was robust. Yet not all megacities have such high levels of preparedness for natural disaster.
Such preparedness needs to be three fold: early warning systems, emergency planning, and community preparedness. Tokyo, with frequent disaster drills and a strong central emergency authority, are well placed to withstand natural disaster. Yet their case in Asia is exceptional. Dhaka, which is built on a flood plane, is increasingly vulnerable to severe floods, rising sea levels, and huge risk of epidemics harvested in the city’s large and unsanitary slums. Jakarta has faced similar problems of flooding in recent years, with current infrastructure unable to support its booming population. Experts worry about the risk of waterborne epidemics following such disasters. Indeed, the risk of a pandemic festering and spreading unreported through the slums of a megacity is a real concern of global proportions.
In the wake of the Middle East’s Arab Spring, concern about civil unrest has gained ever more gravitas in Asia’s megacities. With varied and often delicate multi-cultural makeups, as well as often more volatile economic and political situations, tensions in Asia’s megacities have the potential to descend quickly into rioting and civil disobedience. Thus, law enforcement bodies needed to be large and agile to maintain order. Some countries are well on their way to establishing such ability. China’s 1.5-million-strong People’s Armed Police Force (PAP) is increasingly well equipped to maintain order. The PAP, a paramilitary force tasked with maintaining internal security and stability, has been increasingly deployed in disaster situations such as the earthquakes in Sichuan and Gansu province, but also further abroad involved in humanitarian aid missions such as that following the Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan in 2005. The paramilitary force, under the dual-leadership of the Central Military Commission and the Ministry of Public Security, would be called on in the event of major disaster or unrest in one of China’s many megacities—a first point of call before bringing in the army, as would likely need to occur in many of Asia’s other megacities.
But these law enforcement bodies also have their work cut out for them even without full-scale disasters. Along with megacities comes mega-crime. The migration of an often ill-equipped and unskilled labour force means that many find work where they can, often involving themselves in illicit activities such as drug or sex trafficking.
Greater cooperation will be needed between the world’s megacities, most particularly in Asia. Megacities' rapid growth will require management strategies to reduce vulnerabilities, improve preparedness and to maintain overall stability and security.
Elliot Brennan is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (Sweden), a Non-Resident WSD Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum-Center for Strategic and International Studies (U.S.) and a Contributing Analyst at Wikistrat (U.S.). His research focuses on conflict management in Asia.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's November/December 2013 print edition.
Photo: Warren Antiola (cc).
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Taming Asia’s Megacities
December 19, 2013
Asia is home to the eight of the world’s ten largest megacities—Tokyo, Jakarta, Seoul, Guangzhou, Delhi, Shanghai, Karachi, and Manila—all with over 20 million inhabitants. As Asia’s megacities continue to grow, concern mounts over the ability of states to control them. That control would be tested by natural disasters, civil unrest, infrastructure shortfalls, or epidemics. Indeed, the preparedness of most of Asia’s sprawling megacities is untested.
Megacities are perhaps one of mankind’s most dangerous social experiments. Controlling cities of over 10 million people requires large law enforcement capacity, but also sufficient infrastructure and emergency planning. The fast growth of Asia’s megacities has been nothing short of astounding—take Karachi’s 80 percent population growth between 2000 and 2010 for example. Yet such rapid growth brings myriad problems.
It is not just the urban environment that feels the effects of a megacity’s growth—it is also in rural populations. Megacities need mega infrastructure—more power generation facilities, inter-city roads, and railways—that often lead to land acquisitions in rural environments and result in conflict. Similar strain on such key infrastructure can lead to shortfalls in power generation, leading to brown- or black- outs that, while economically costly, can also prove life-threatening for vulnerable parts of the population.
The social fabric of such mega-societies is often tested by the migration of ethnic or rural populations. Indeed, population growth in megacities relies on the migration “pull” of rural populations to urban environments. Tensions are also pronounced in changes in social norms such as gender roles. For example, in Vietnam, with an emerging megacity in Ho Chi Minh City, as more men from rural areas seek opportunities in urban areas, women are forced to tend to small family farms. As such, in Vietnam, gender participation in the work force is higher in female populations (80 percent) compared to male populations (70 percent). Aside from the issues this has on lowering birth rates, unemployed—and often unattached—males in urban environments has been shown to lead to higher crime rates while also impacting the sale of prostitution, drugs, and human trafficking. Ultimately this further erodes social customs. Similar trends, where social tensions are being stretched, can be seen across Asia.
But aside from these changing social fabrics, more abrupt threats are also likely. Natural disasters are just one such unpredictable and difficult-to-mitigate problem. Of the world’s 30 megacities, half are at risk of earthquakes, and none more so than Tokyo, which sits upon three geological fault lines. The 2011 magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, while some miles north of the megacity, tested the city’s resilience and preparedness for natural disaster. The response was impressive. Despite strong aftershocks felt in Tokyo, community preparedness, as well as that of the state, was robust. Yet not all megacities have such high levels of preparedness for natural disaster.
Such preparedness needs to be three fold: early warning systems, emergency planning, and community preparedness. Tokyo, with frequent disaster drills and a strong central emergency authority, are well placed to withstand natural disaster. Yet their case in Asia is exceptional. Dhaka, which is built on a flood plane, is increasingly vulnerable to severe floods, rising sea levels, and huge risk of epidemics harvested in the city’s large and unsanitary slums. Jakarta has faced similar problems of flooding in recent years, with current infrastructure unable to support its booming population. Experts worry about the risk of waterborne epidemics following such disasters. Indeed, the risk of a pandemic festering and spreading unreported through the slums of a megacity is a real concern of global proportions.
In the wake of the Middle East’s Arab Spring, concern about civil unrest has gained ever more gravitas in Asia’s megacities. With varied and often delicate multi-cultural makeups, as well as often more volatile economic and political situations, tensions in Asia’s megacities have the potential to descend quickly into rioting and civil disobedience. Thus, law enforcement bodies needed to be large and agile to maintain order. Some countries are well on their way to establishing such ability. China’s 1.5-million-strong People’s Armed Police Force (PAP) is increasingly well equipped to maintain order. The PAP, a paramilitary force tasked with maintaining internal security and stability, has been increasingly deployed in disaster situations such as the earthquakes in Sichuan and Gansu province, but also further abroad involved in humanitarian aid missions such as that following the Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan in 2005. The paramilitary force, under the dual-leadership of the Central Military Commission and the Ministry of Public Security, would be called on in the event of major disaster or unrest in one of China’s many megacities—a first point of call before bringing in the army, as would likely need to occur in many of Asia’s other megacities.
But these law enforcement bodies also have their work cut out for them even without full-scale disasters. Along with megacities comes mega-crime. The migration of an often ill-equipped and unskilled labour force means that many find work where they can, often involving themselves in illicit activities such as drug or sex trafficking.
Greater cooperation will be needed between the world’s megacities, most particularly in Asia. Megacities' rapid growth will require management strategies to reduce vulnerabilities, improve preparedness and to maintain overall stability and security.
Elliot Brennan is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (Sweden), a Non-Resident WSD Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum-Center for Strategic and International Studies (U.S.) and a Contributing Analyst at Wikistrat (U.S.). His research focuses on conflict management in Asia.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's November/December 2013 print edition.
Photo: Warren Antiola (cc).
