limate displacement and migration tends to be viewed as a future problem – one that can be dealt with once climate change becomes extreme. However, climate change is already displacing millions and even surpassed conflict as the leading driver of internal displacement, with three times as many people displaced by natural disasters than by conflict in 2020.
A changing climate will shift the areas around the world suitable for human life: the human “climate niche.” This will likely be caused by an increased frequency and severity of storms, sea level rises, and desertification. While much of Earth’s surface is currently habitable, over the next 50 years habitability will significantly decrease across South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. The countries at the greatest risk from climate change are also among the world’s poorest and most unstable. A drop in habitability, compounded with issues of overwhelming poverty and political and social instability, has the potential to create crises of massive proportions.
This is already beginning to play out in the cities of many low- and middle-income countries, as rural communities look to cities for economic and physical stability. Rather than finding stability, however, climate displaced persons are finding themselves in slums. Over the next 10 years, climate displacement is expected to increase slum populations by 700 million. Development economists tend to view urbanization as a good thing – a sign that the economy is growing and industrializing. However, current migration is due to crisis rather than opportunity. By expanding slum populations, climate displacement entrenches poverty and increases the likelihood of violence within slums as migrated communities compete for increasingly scarce resources. Failing to address climate displacement, therefore, will make already difficult international problems more challenging to solve.
In fact, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has called West Africa one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Almost half of West Africa’s population lives within 200 kilometers of the coastline, meaning that 24 million people may be at risk of climate displacement due to sea level rise and natural disasters. Climate-driven migration is already being recorded within Ghana, and both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are currently receiving climate migrants from surrounding West African countries.
With climate change expected to displace between 150 and 300 million people by 2050, realistic, sustainable solutions are needed now. Current conceptions of climate adaptation deny the inevitability of climate displacement due to changes in land habitability. Rather, it is assumed that uninhabitable areas can be made livable through infrastructure and other resilience measures. While this type of adaptation is helpful in certain circumstances, these interventions cannot save those areas with imminent and extreme climate risks. The planned relocation of vulnerable communities, supported by geospatial analysis and local partnerships, consequently deserves greater consideration.
The UNHCR defines planned relocation as an organized process through which groups are resettled in a new location and provided with the resources needed to rebuild and continue their lives. Although international guidance on this process does exist, international organizations have failed to identify methods for determining where these communities should relocate to. The less the lives of climate displaced communities can be disturbed, the more sustainable their relocation will be. For instance, for planned relocation to be successful, rural communities must move to a place where they can continue their livelihoods: rural, agricultural areas rather than cities.
The suitability of a location, based on factors such as agricultural and sociocultural similarities, can be found using a suitability analysis: the synthesizing of different spatial variables to identify a preferred location based on a set of criteria. The Relocation Analysis Project, an undergraduate research team based at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, developed two spatial models as part of a suitability analysis. One was a threat index, to show areas with a high likelihood of displacement, and the other was an opportunity index which highlights areas most suitable for relocation. The indices combine climate vulnerability, poverty, and violence as indicators of potential displacement with measures of infrastructure, ethnic relations, and agricultural productivity in an attempt to identify the most suitable areas for the relocation. Due to the existing prevalence of climate displacement and migration as well as the quality of data available to measure their vulnerability and suitability, this analysis was done for coastal communities in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
The Displacement Threat Index focuses primarily on coastal Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, as these areas are subject to the greatest number of compounding climate threats. This index shows that displacement is most likely to occur in southern and eastern Ghana, and in western Côte d’Ivoire. Given this map, officials worried about internal displacement can focus their efforts on the specific towns and regions that are most likely to be affected.
The Opportunity Index demonstrates that the areas most suitable for relocating climate vulnerable communities can be found in the northern and central Côte d’Ivoire and central and eastern Ghana. While the index does point to cities and certain spaces also prone to displacement, this is likely because of the inclusion of infrastructure variables (schools, roads, and health sites) in the model. Given the importance of agricultural livelihoods to climate vulnerable communities, highly suitable areas outside of cities should be prioritized over cities even if they are considered highly suitable.
Maps like these can be an important tool for visualizing and combating climate displacement. The ease of interpretation and analysis can increase planning efficiency and effectiveness, allowing resources to be directed toward regions with the greatest potential for a climate-safe and socially-sustainable future.
Preventing climate displacement is in everyone’s interest, from Accra to New Orleans. It is time to look at our climate future realistically and develop mechanisms to protect the most vulnerable communities worldwide. A better future is possible, and geospatial analysis may be key to achieving it.
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Sustainable Relocation is Climate Adaptation’s Next Frontier
Thousands Displaced Due to Flooding in Cap-Haïtien, Haiti | UN Photo/Logan Abassi.
After days of continuous rains, parts of Haiti's north, including Cap Haïtien, suffered serious flooding, leaving more than a dozen dead and thousands homeless. The Haitian government with the support of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) and UN agencies including the World Food Programme (WFP), responded with evacuations, temporary shelters and food and supplies distributions.
May 24, 2022
Climate displacement and migration are a real and pressing problem, having already surpassed conflict as the leading cause of internal displacement. Suitability analyses can help ensure relocation is sustainable and just, writes Relocation Analysis Project founder Lauren Boyes.
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limate displacement and migration tends to be viewed as a future problem – one that can be dealt with once climate change becomes extreme. However, climate change is already displacing millions and even surpassed conflict as the leading driver of internal displacement, with three times as many people displaced by natural disasters than by conflict in 2020.
A changing climate will shift the areas around the world suitable for human life: the human “climate niche.” This will likely be caused by an increased frequency and severity of storms, sea level rises, and desertification. While much of Earth’s surface is currently habitable, over the next 50 years habitability will significantly decrease across South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. The countries at the greatest risk from climate change are also among the world’s poorest and most unstable. A drop in habitability, compounded with issues of overwhelming poverty and political and social instability, has the potential to create crises of massive proportions.
This is already beginning to play out in the cities of many low- and middle-income countries, as rural communities look to cities for economic and physical stability. Rather than finding stability, however, climate displaced persons are finding themselves in slums. Over the next 10 years, climate displacement is expected to increase slum populations by 700 million. Development economists tend to view urbanization as a good thing – a sign that the economy is growing and industrializing. However, current migration is due to crisis rather than opportunity. By expanding slum populations, climate displacement entrenches poverty and increases the likelihood of violence within slums as migrated communities compete for increasingly scarce resources. Failing to address climate displacement, therefore, will make already difficult international problems more challenging to solve.
In fact, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has called West Africa one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Almost half of West Africa’s population lives within 200 kilometers of the coastline, meaning that 24 million people may be at risk of climate displacement due to sea level rise and natural disasters. Climate-driven migration is already being recorded within Ghana, and both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are currently receiving climate migrants from surrounding West African countries.
With climate change expected to displace between 150 and 300 million people by 2050, realistic, sustainable solutions are needed now. Current conceptions of climate adaptation deny the inevitability of climate displacement due to changes in land habitability. Rather, it is assumed that uninhabitable areas can be made livable through infrastructure and other resilience measures. While this type of adaptation is helpful in certain circumstances, these interventions cannot save those areas with imminent and extreme climate risks. The planned relocation of vulnerable communities, supported by geospatial analysis and local partnerships, consequently deserves greater consideration.
The UNHCR defines planned relocation as an organized process through which groups are resettled in a new location and provided with the resources needed to rebuild and continue their lives. Although international guidance on this process does exist, international organizations have failed to identify methods for determining where these communities should relocate to. The less the lives of climate displaced communities can be disturbed, the more sustainable their relocation will be. For instance, for planned relocation to be successful, rural communities must move to a place where they can continue their livelihoods: rural, agricultural areas rather than cities.
The suitability of a location, based on factors such as agricultural and sociocultural similarities, can be found using a suitability analysis: the synthesizing of different spatial variables to identify a preferred location based on a set of criteria. The Relocation Analysis Project, an undergraduate research team based at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, developed two spatial models as part of a suitability analysis. One was a threat index, to show areas with a high likelihood of displacement, and the other was an opportunity index which highlights areas most suitable for relocation. The indices combine climate vulnerability, poverty, and violence as indicators of potential displacement with measures of infrastructure, ethnic relations, and agricultural productivity in an attempt to identify the most suitable areas for the relocation. Due to the existing prevalence of climate displacement and migration as well as the quality of data available to measure their vulnerability and suitability, this analysis was done for coastal communities in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
The Displacement Threat Index focuses primarily on coastal Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, as these areas are subject to the greatest number of compounding climate threats. This index shows that displacement is most likely to occur in southern and eastern Ghana, and in western Côte d’Ivoire. Given this map, officials worried about internal displacement can focus their efforts on the specific towns and regions that are most likely to be affected.
The Opportunity Index demonstrates that the areas most suitable for relocating climate vulnerable communities can be found in the northern and central Côte d’Ivoire and central and eastern Ghana. While the index does point to cities and certain spaces also prone to displacement, this is likely because of the inclusion of infrastructure variables (schools, roads, and health sites) in the model. Given the importance of agricultural livelihoods to climate vulnerable communities, highly suitable areas outside of cities should be prioritized over cities even if they are considered highly suitable.
Maps like these can be an important tool for visualizing and combating climate displacement. The ease of interpretation and analysis can increase planning efficiency and effectiveness, allowing resources to be directed toward regions with the greatest potential for a climate-safe and socially-sustainable future.
Preventing climate displacement is in everyone’s interest, from Accra to New Orleans. It is time to look at our climate future realistically and develop mechanisms to protect the most vulnerable communities worldwide. A better future is possible, and geospatial analysis may be key to achieving it.
